Gold Trend 23/April/2013

Long Term=Bullish/Neutral – the 1476 close last Friday was below the long term average (1480). A monthly close below 1480 would put long term out of bull mode and into neutral.
Medium Term=Bearish Need a close above 1680 to neutralize.
Intermediate Term=Bearish –need a close above 1480 to neutralize downtrend.
Short Term=Neutral – New resistance 1445-1456 -- weekly support 1340-1352
Support and Resistance
(NOTE JUNE GOLD NUMBERS– Spot about 1 dollar above June gold)
Initial Resistance 1427-1437 and 2nd tier 1445-1456
Initial Support 1402-1413 and 2nd tier 1376-1386

Gold Hourly Chart

Gold got as high as 1438.80 on Monday before pulling back to the (for now) key purple channel line at the 1425 price area. This has been our key focal point this week with it first being resistance and now is acting like a pivot point where higher has the bulls trying to move the price. So far it has returned to that area each time this week so far. Note now that the 200 hour moving average has come all the way down to 1433 and so far today price has vacillated above and below 1425 as that is the center of the concentrated action at the moment over the last 24 hours. Now that the 200 hour is arriving is suggests a move above 1438 will lead to this week’s most likely maximum resistance at 1444-1464.

Tuesday support is the 1407-1414 zone and then 1390-1395 and 1380. The bounce that began last week is still in play. Odd favor it peaks on Wednesday/Thursday. If there is a massive shortage or if there is any truth to this default scenario, it could explode price higher at any moment. In that type of situation we can only imagine the size of the moves up and down in an epic confusion. As far as the bounce, we’re not sure if Monday was the final day or whether there is one more day. If there was anything normal about this market we’d favor price pulling back from the moving average and move lower into Wednesday. That’s what it looks like but if we get above the 200 hour average and make it support, a move to 1454-1464 would be favored. Right now, its Tuesday's resistance.

What Next?

The next few days will determine whether the bounce turns into a trend. An important new two week cycle is now in play. The ideal day is the 25th but it has a (plus or minus) 72 hours. So it’s in play now. A low would be the preferred scenario in our work. Thus a pullback low could develop over the next few days. If we can get a low, and it doesn't have to be new low. Just a good recognizable one, odds will favor the low is in place from which gold will ATTEMPT over the next two weeks and two months to regain its bullish posture.

Bottom Line

A pullback should being either today or Wednesday. Remember, we’re dealing with odds and not absolutes. We’ll discuss the cycle more on tomorrows update. Tuesday should have a pullback attempt, but the market has been strong so we’ll see how low then can pull it. A move above 1438 would obviously negate a pullback and instead would favor a high towards 1445-1465. We think the pullback has a better chance of developing so we’ll see.

 

YOU SHOULD NOT TAKE ANY MATERIAL posted on this BLOG AS RECOMMENDATIONS 
TO BUY OR SELL GOLD OR ANY OTHER INVESTMENT VEHICLE LISTED. 

 Do your own due diligence. 

No one knows tomorrow's price or circumstance. 
 I intend to portray my thoughts and ideas on the subject which may s be used as a tool for the reader. 
I do not accept responsibility for being incorrect in my speculations on market trend. 

 King Regards