Gold Trend 20/May/2013

Long Term-Neutral – Need a monthly close above 1490-1526 in May to regain Bullish status.
Medium Term=Bearish Need a close above 1650-1675 to neutralize.
Intermediate Term=Bearish –need a close above 1465 to return neutral.
Short Term=bearish–  trading range broken to downside --it takes a close above 1425 to go neutral -- next support 1335-1355 and 1280-1310
Support and Resistance
(NOTE JUNE GOLD NUMBERS)
Initial Resistance 1365-1375 and 2nd tier 1385-1390
Initial Support 1333-1340 and 2nd tier 1310-1323

Gold Hourly Chart

Gold reached the next lower channel support just after the open on Sunday night at touched 1436.70. For those who follow us on twitter, we listed 1333-1338 on Friday afternoon and again earlier before this price point was hit.  This is the last channel line before the 1321 low.  Thus this point could be one of the low points this week.  the other is the 1310-1325 area that would match the lows of April.  The only other channel line nearby and we can't see it on this chart is the 1270-1280 area.  While we don't favor that on Monday,  and the 1333-1338 line favors to hold for Monday,  Resistance is the mini blue line at 1365 and then the 1379-1383 area.  with Bernanke testifying to congress on Wednesday, gold should remain in a somewhat contained area, especially with all the hype that 3 of the Fed board members favor a tapering of stimulus and the central banks knowing they have to weaken the Euro if its to come out of recession.

What Next?

The control boyz took advantage of china being closed on Friday and sent the market tumbling.  Monday favors the 1333-1338 area on the hourly charts channel line to provide the low of the day.  That's the odds favored area.  Resistance is the 1365-1375 area.  That should contain the upside as we don't see gold getting to far if it follows the typical pattern before Fed meetings.  We favor a range bound day of 1333-1363 with a lot of time near the 1345-1355 area for Monday.

Bottom Line

As discussed on Friday the short term pressure remains on gold.  With the cycle inversion into this week, the rotation favors gold makes a low on this cycle on May 24th (plus or minus 24 hours).   The key will be the Bernanke speech this week and it will be an important one. With Europe in recession, and the fake data that makes the US economy look strong and three Fed board members favoring a tapering off of stimulus and a stock market so over extended, it would be a great time for him to EXPERIMENT with the idea to see what the market would think.  He's been using fed speak over the past few weeks sand the stock market just keeps rising.  Perhaps he's ready to push it to the next level and instead of saying he's thinking about it, he might "threaten it."   In the end, he'll leave it that he doesn't have to make a decision this week.

 

YOU SHOULD NOT TAKE ANY MATERIAL posted on this BLOG AS RECOMMENDATIONS 
TO BUY OR SELL GOLD OR ANY OTHER INVESTMENT VEHICLE LISTED. 

 Do your own due diligence. 

No one knows tomorrow's price or circumstance. 
 I intend to portray my thoughts and ideas on the subject which may s be used as a tool for the reader. 
I do not accept responsibility for being incorrect in my speculations on market trend. 

 King Regards