Gold Trend 21/May/2013

Long Term-Neutral – Need a monthly close above 1490-1526 in May to regain Bullish status.
Medium Term=Bearish Need a close above 1650-1675 to neutralize.
Intermediate Term=Bearish –need a close above 1465 to return neutral.
Short Term=bearish–  trading range broken to downside --it takes a close above 1425 to go neutral -- next support 1335-1355 and 1280-1310
Support and Resistance
(NOTE JUNE GOLD NUMBERS)

Initial Resistance 1395-1406 and 2nd tier 1411-1423
Initial Support 1366-1378 and 2nd tier 1345-1353

Gold Hourly Chart

Last nights update favored 1333-1338 support line to hold and price actually went higher than we were anticipating as we pushed thru daily resistance and right up to the first weekly and the key resistance point we listed above (1395-1405). The power behind it was strong but the bulk of the move.  Once we got above the 1st resistance of the day, prices moved up 30 dollars in a very short time. That suggests that portion of the move was short covering. It would be better if the move was more orderly, but we'll take it. At least the move is not choppy and overlapping and that is a good thing.  Resistance on Tuesday is the 1395-1405 area and 1411-1415 where the white arrows point to the trend lines. It's not impossible that the control boyz know what's coming down and we don't want to put anything beyond them. They could still crush it as we've seen over and over. Support is the 1361-1370 area and 1479-1483 on Tuesday.  With the testimony on Wednesday, it suggests that if price keeps going up they must have been clued in.  There is way to much money to lose on leveraged trade unless one waits for the precise time and that should be evident in silver's 10% drop.  They ware going to take as many out as they can before the next big rally because once it starts to trend, then its much easier getting on board and riding for a week or two at a time.  Finally, keep in mind that the ranges are wide and sothis is a normal reaction move up due to how wide the ranges are.  Tuesday is usually an up day, but with today's move it could consolidate in the 1360-1370 area on the downside and 1395-1405 on the upside for a range.

What Next?

We had China closed for a day and the boyz were able to take prices down almost 80 bucks since Thursday night.  Today's reversal was a good rebound and now we see if we're going to get the turn we're anticipating. The cycle inversion two weeks ago delayed this turn we've been expecting, but things are even more set up this time.  We have the new low in silver, and not gold, and we have a double BOTTOM IN GLD.  We have 89 weeks down in gold since the peak and 34 in silver since October.  The more these cycles are lined up the better chance we have of ending a 2 year correction.  We're also down 61% in silver and the HUI and last night we we'e only 53 dollars from the gold 38% area.  

THUS THERE IS A MYRIAD of cycles and long term trend lines that have HIGH ODDS of a turn here and an attempt to begin an up move.  Once it begins, then we see what the pattern looks like.

Bottom Line

As far as things coming together we feel that this is about the best chance for a low that we've seen in a year for a potential turn. Let's see if we can get the follow through.  The Fed and Bernanke may try and head fake us but once he's out of the way, and EVEN IF HIS TESTIMONY IS BEARISH --- we think the odds will be good that it will be a flush out that will reverse higher.   

Finally, with Soros buying 25 million dollars of GDXJ options and all the circumstancial evidence of tight gold supplies, think about what SOROS IS DOING.  If gold explodes higher, he has a right to exercise those options and receive the major Junior company stock who are insolvent and most are ready to go out of business.  But they have one thing --- the cheapest price in 20 years and FUTURE GOLD IN THE GROUND.   And they are the BEST of the BEST out of about 800 companies.

What does that tell you he is thinking?  What should we be thinking?  Right.

 

YOU SHOULD NOT TAKE ANY MATERIAL posted on this BLOG AS RECOMMENDATIONS 
TO BUY OR SELL GOLD OR ANY OTHER INVESTMENT VEHICLE LISTED. 

 Do your own due diligence. 

No one knows tomorrow's price or circumstance. 
 I intend to portray my thoughts and ideas on the subject which may s be used as a tool for the reader. 
I do not accept responsibility for being incorrect in my speculations on market trend. 

 King Regards