October 14
Gold markets had a soft day for the session on Thursday as traders continue to go back and forth in this market. The Dollar was bid on Thursday, and this can sometimes push the value of gold down. The action was fairly light, and did in fact turn back around towards the end of the session, showing that there is still an underlying bid in this commodity.
The action shows us that buying on the pullbacks is still the way to go, and that the demand should still come into play. The market looks constructive, especially if we can get a daily close above $1,680 or so, which is where we see the last of the resistance. With so many risks to the global economy out there, we are hesitant to sell this market as it will more than likely continue to get the “safe haven” bid every time bad news hits the wires.
Scenario for today
Elliott: correction zigzag 1659.46
Market should pop up towards 1676.36 or 1684.16 this bullish scenario would be damaged if 1660.54 - 1652.51 zone is broken, a severe break down could then occur.
Gold Is Bullish – Ascending Triangle.
On the 4 hourly price chart for Gold, I noted an ascending triangle formation. This is a bullish signal. Could it mean that Equity market is ready to continue its upwards march?
In Technical Analysis, this is bullish stuff. I would rate it a 70% probable move up. And a breakout is always a pretty substantial move. Can be very rewarding, if you get the direction right. I would be launching a Timid Trading Signal soon for Gold and Silver, together with Forex as well. So watch out for it! And remember to subscribe to it. 
October 13
GOLD may biased to the upside ob correction but has to decisively break and hold above the 1,677.95 level to re-establish its corrective recovery. This if seen could put Gold on the path of further strength towards the 1,702.31 level, its Aug 25'2011 low. We expect this level to reverse roles and provide resistance thus turning the commodity back down. However, if taken out, further recovery strength should build up towards the 1,754.55 level, its Sept 23'2011 high. Its daily RSI is supportive of this view. Alternatively, the risk to this analysis will be a return to the 1,532.90 level, its Sept'2011 low with a violation of there turning further downside pressure towards the 1.500.00 level, its psycho level and then its July 01'2011 low at 1,478.05. All in all, Gold remains vulnerable to the downside medium term though attempting to recover higher.
October 12
A lot of eyes were watching the Slovakian Parliament around the closing bell today as they voted on the European Financial Stability Fund (EFSF). The first vote failed to pass the pending legislation, but members of the opposition party have indicated that they will vote for the bill in a second scheduled vote.
The recent price action in gold has been equally as tough to trade as the S&P 500 Index. After rallying sharply into early September, gold prices plummeted and price action has been consolidating ever since. Similar to the price action in the S&P 500, gold prices have just chopped around for several weeks. Gold is currently trading in a bear flag formation which if triggered could result in additional downside.
In the short-term more downside is always possible, but in the longer-term I think higher prices are probable for both gold and silver as this money printing binge will one day end and inflationary pressures may present themselves at that time. The weekly chart of gold futures is shown below:
As can be seen above, gold has traded in a long term rising channel for over a year. Back in August and September gold prices broke out to the upside of the rising channel and went parabolic. In the beginning of September, gold prices sold off sharply back down into the previous rising channel. As it stands right now, gold prices remain near the upper resistance level of that channel and have not tested the lower support line since February.
If gold prices do begin to rollover in the days and weeks ahead, a logical entry point would be a test of the lower channel. The price level I would be watching for would be around $1,500 an ounce. If we get to that area, I would not be shocked to see an overthrow of that support level and a test of the 1,480 price level before reversing to the upside.
The other side of this story is that the U.S. Dollar Index falls out of favor again and its price gets crushed. If the U.S. Dollar gets hammered lower, it would make sense that U.S. domestic equities would rally along with other risk assets such as gold, silver, and oil. Right now I do not have a clear short term bias, but in the intermediate to longer term cycles I remain quite bullish. If the gold price does work back down to that support level, I will be looking to get long. Another possible long entry would present itself on a breakout to the upside back out of the upward sloping channel.
Gold is quite volatile and is impacted by a litany of outside forces such as foreign currency and the U.S. Dollar. For right now the short term bias could be to the downside, but when this period of malaise in the yellow metal ends the next bullish phase of this move higher is going to be quite strong.
October 11
Gold edged higher to high to 1686.7 but lacked follow through momentum. After all, we'd maintain that break of 1705.4 double top neckline is needed to indicate near term trend reversal. Otherwise, fall from 1923.7 is still expected to continue. On the downside, below 1585 minor support will flip bias to the downside for 1535 and break there will target 1500 psychological level next. Though, break of 1705.4 will argue that fall from 1923.7 might be over and will bring stronger rise towards this high.
In the bigger picture, current development indicates that gold has made a medium term top at 1923.7, ahead of long term projection level of 161.8% projection of 253 to 1033.9 from 681 at 1945.6 and 2000 psychological level. While the fall from 1923.7 is steep and deep, gold is still holding inside long term rising channel from 681 and above 55 weeks EMA at 1513.3. Hence, we're not too bearish in gold yet. Strong support is anticipated at 1478.3/1577.4 support zone to contained downside, at least initially, and bring rebound. However, note that sustained break of 1478.3 will strongly suggest that the long term up trend has already reversed.
Comex Gold Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart 
Gold Technical Analysis Monday October 10, 2011
Gold markets fell slightly during the Friday session, but remain within the recent consolidation area that we have seen over the last several days. The market still looks constructive, mainly because of the failure for it to fall under the $1,600 for any significant amount of time. Because of this, we still feel that the $1,600 level might be a floor in this market. We are willing to buy in small positions, but will only get aggressive in our buying if we can get a daily close above $1,675. We are not willing to sell gold as the long-term trend is most certainly to the upside.
Scenario for today
Elliott: flat correction down 1622.92
It looks more likely that it would rise to 1659.59 - 1682.91 from 1631.43 or 1619.77. After which a downside move is expected.
Warning: Engulfing pattern
Gold traded choppily above 1600 last week. Finishing the week as +0.87%, the yellow metal indeed recorded the first positive reading in 5 weeks. Recent correction after surging to a record high of 1923.7 has been driven by a confluence of factors including CME' increase in margin requirements, profit-taking after the relentless rally since the beginning of the year and liquidation of long positions to cover losses in other markets.
Despite the selloff, holdings in ETF and bullion sales remained firm. The chart below shows that, despite outflow over the past few weeks, gold holdings in SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest ETF, stayed at record level. Meanwhile, the US Mint reported that gold sales in September were 91K oz, down from 112K oz in August but well-above levels in June and July. In the first week of October, gold sales reached 23.5K, signaling the possibility of exceeding September's figure.
We retain our view the gold's long-term is not yet ended. Instead, it's prone to make new highs after the correction as long as uncertainties in macroeconomic outlook persist. Economic deterioration in both sides of the Atlantic triggered central banks to step up monetary easing and to keep interest rates at exceptionally levels. Impacts of fiscal austerity measures are going to reflect on declining economic indicators. Moreover, it takes a long way for resolving the sovereign debt crisis in the Eurozone. These issues will continue to dampen market sentiment and increase investors' demand for safe-haven assets.
Weekly Gold Fundamental Analysis October 10-14, 2011
Gold prices gained last week, as gold prices continued to recover from the sharp drop that took prices from the historic high above $1900 an ounce to around $1500 an ounce over the past period, where the U.S. dollar weakened in general, which provided gold prices with some bullish momentum. Nonetheless volatility was rather dominant in the overall movement of gold prices specifically, since traders were still cautious.
Investors found some comfort in the measures deployed by the ECB to ease the financial strain amid the lack of concrete actions from leaders. The bank extended the regular liquidity operations at least until July 2012, and added new 12 and 13 month tenders in addition to setting 40 billion euros for covered bonds purchases which is aimed at ensuring liquidity availability to the market.
The Bank of England on the other hand announced an expansion to its Asset Purchases Facility to reach 275 billion pounds, as the BOE are easing monetary policy to be able to withstand the recent turbulence from the European debt crisis, while also stabilizing theU.K.economy.
The pessimism eased last week especially with the stronger than expected jobs report from the United States that showed 103 thousand added jobs in the economy in September which somehow eased woes of recession and focused on slowdown.
The week is low of major fundamentals this week which leaves the focus again on the outlook for growth and the debt crisis. The EU leaders will continue to discuss the means needed to contain the crisis especially with the meeting scheduled between Sarkozy and Merkel where positive comments on how they will help banks and Greece will be good support to the sentiment and help the upside recovery.
On the other hand, the FOMC minutes will remind investors of the ongoing downside pressures and intensified downside risks to growth although since the announcement of Operation Twist Bernanke reiterated the Federal Reserve’s commitment to support the recovery and take all necessary steps.
Therefore, once again we expect the main attention to be to the debt crisis again and the measures to be taken especially as investors will turn to the G20 summit at the end of the week ahead of the EU leaders summit early the next week which will hold the final answer to markets.
We continue to expect that gold prices will rise over the coming period, however, we also expect volatility to continue to dominate gold prices, and that could push gold prices lower as well over intraday and short term basis.
