October 21
Gold first support for Friday 1595-1608
Resistance 1639-1649 Euro decisions due over the weekend
Options expiration coming due on the 27th
Overall trend very choppy and in a trading range with BEARISH OVERTONES
Remain cautious
Elliott: resistance in an elongated correction 1631.93
One more dip to 1612.43 - 1601.61 is likely followed by a grind higher to 1632.80 - 1642.36. After which it can resume its downtrend.
Warning: End of trend
Gold first support for Friday 1595-1608
Resistance 1639-1649 Euro decisions due over the weekend
Options expiration coming due on the 27th
Overall trend very choppy and in a trading range with BEARISH OVERTONES
Remain cautious
What do you know gold has fell again to near the floor of 1600. Will gold start to go up? Yes I believe so, the probability of it rising from here is much higher then it falling.
Gold as you can see has reached the floor, well almost the floor. Where will it go from here? Up up and away I feel. (it could drop another 10 bucks before it starts to trek up)
Lets have some idea, longing gold from here to 1650 might be quite a good idea, but please note this will take a few days, markets is still consolidating, this is a consolidation trade. Nothing fanciful!
Gold first support for Thursday --- 1618-1623 ---Euro decisions due over the weekend --------- options expiration coming due on the 27th-------and overall trend very choppy and in a trading range with BEARISH OVERTONES............should we break that support area ???
The main price trend of gold continues unchanged long term but the medium term is another story. The current rebound from the lows of October show a choppy, overlapping, sideways move so far. That suggests that the dominant trend is still down. UPTRENDS dont have choppy, overlapping, sideways condtions as is well shown on the chart below. IT also stands t reason that is where the money is made --- and its made because following the "trend" is so easy. Trading is easy, buy the dip --- selll the rally --- over and over again.
If that is true, then the inverse is the current price range and pattern..............where money is lost. I'm speaking in general terms because if you haven't seen your account dwindle in the past few months is because your tactics have not changed --- but the current time frame has.
When markets get in patterns like this many traders tend to overtrade and get whipsawed around and end up giving up a lot of hard earned profits. It becomes a battle of picking the top or the bottom ---always waiting for the trend to resume ---and it causes a lot of frustration ---and gives up a lot of gains. That is all well and good if your in it for the sheer fascination of the game --- or worse, if you've gotten addicted to trading and you've given up a substancial portion of your funds. If your in it for the money ---and not the excitment ---then there should be no problem sitting back for a week or two at a time waiting for the market to end this current tight choppy trading range. IF your like most of us, you'll find this the hardest thing to do. Instead of taking a good trading break ---and waiting for safer water -- we press on, trying to make the market do what it is not interested in doing. How much easier it would be if we just waited for a new trend to develop ---or --- trade the short side on a break from this area.
In trading the money is KEPT when knowing not to trade. If your losing money day trading right now --- look at the range your trying to trade in. You'd better be a pro to get a few bucks out of the market. However --- this congestion -- when it ends -- is going to have a nice range trade again. Learn to sit back and relax after a good gain and a trend suddenly goes sideways.
Going into Thursday, any close below that lower dotted white line favors another leg lower towards the last lows or the lower green channel line.
Gold Cycles The chart below shows the cycles we follow for short term movement. This chart shows the action during the big bull move over the past 12 months into its final stage. The blue circles are the dominating trend points (stronger) and the red circles are when the weaker trend takes hold. The dates are not exact --- but they tell us the main trend of the market. These dates are not curve fitted --- and we have all the dates for the past and the future. They are not changeable. Not all the signals work --- only about 75% do within a standard deviation. But they tell us what trend to MOST LIKELY EXPECT. But they also tell us something else ---- when a market is not in bull mode. When the BLUE circles begin appearing at price highs ----instead of LOWS -- it means the dominant trend is down. Tonights daily button has the the latest cycle update. Click it on later tonight --- when its updated after midnight EST time. You'll see the current set up.
October 19
The gold markets had a wild ride on Tuesday as the market fell most of the session. The headlines out of Europe stating that the EU might increase the EFSF bailout fund to 2 Trillion Euros pushed the market back higher, as it appears that the Europeans are getting ready to “print” more money at this point. It should be noted that the story is unconfirmed at the moment, and this showed up in the gold pits as gold is an investment people will buy in uncertain times.
The market is very leery of printing, and this should only help to bolster the demand for gold. The resulting candle for the day is a massive hammer, and it looks set to bounce from this point. A breaking of the highs from Monday should clear the market to go much higher at this point.
As I said yesterday gold will revisit near the 1625 from 1670 level, and lo Behold, it did! Nothing new happening in the Eurozone, the Greek tragedy has not fully been resolved.
Simply put for this fundamental announcement: Gold will fall if Greece Defaults, Gold should rise if A bailout is done for Greece.
Its now based more on investor psychology.
So now what? Will gold continue to fall or go up? I personally see only 2 movements, a big movement down to 1600-1620 level, or a move up to 1680 level. So yesterday I predicted a big move down, and yes it went down, what is the chance of it going down even more?
Quite probable actually, the floor for gold I would say is 1550-1600, so the closer it is to this region, going long is quite a good move.
Down a little more? As per consolidation markets, it should hit lower to the 1620 region.
October 18
Greece is still not settled. Gold has almost broken 1700. Is this a good sign? Yes for long term gold. No for short term gold. Recovering so fast from a 1550 drop to 1700 is not that healthy.
October 17
Stochastic is still attempting to give the required bearish sign over daily studies where the entire correctional movements from 1533.00 to the current levels are still trapped below the neckline areas of the double top formation. The classical double top structure hasn't reached its scientific technical target yet, warning a new downside move may start sooner, noting that the possibility of drawing a rising wedge pattern increased. A break of 1702.00 will indicate that the bearish effect of the double top pattern has been limited earlier at 1533.00, while breaching through 1653.00 will accelerate the awaited negative scenario.
The trading range for this week is among the key support at 1575.00 and key resistance now at 1785.00.
The general trend over the short term basis is to the upside targeting 1945.00 per ounce as far as areas of 1475.00 remain intact with weekly closing.
Support: 1673.00, 1653.00, 1635.00, 1627.00, 1615.00
Resistance: 1687.00, 1702.00, 1715.00, 1728.00, 1735.00
Resistance: 1687.00, 1702.00, 1715.00, 1728.00, 1735.00
Recommendation Based on the charts and explanations above our opinion is, selling gold with a breakout below 1653.00 targeting 1575.00 and stop loss above 1702.00 might be appropriate.
