Long Term ~ Neutral – Need a monthly close above 1800 to confirm the bull market final phase underway
Medium Term ~ Bearish - Need a close above 1525-1580 to neutralize.
Intermediate Term ~ Neutral – GLD and HUI have neutralized the downtrend before gold. Odds favor we’re heading towards 1330-1360 on a move above 1305.
Short Term ~ Neutral/Bullish – The short term trend has gone neutral with potential for a rise above 1300-1310 -- which would be bullish to 1340-1360. The only question is the next short term cycle due the 22nd as to a high or low.
Support and Resistance
Initial Resistance 1284-1294 and 2nd tier 1305-1315
Initial Support 1255-1265 and 2nd tier 1232-1242
Thursday’s numbers are below.
Gold Hourly Chart
What Next?
Bottom Line
Odds favor a medium term move higher is underway. Historically, the Fed meetings and the G20 meetings are usually not bullish for gold. The fact that we've been holding resistance and every downtrend attempt keeps getting bought certainly favors the upside.
Medium Term ~ Bearish - Need a close above 1525-1580 to neutralize.
Intermediate Term ~ Neutral – GLD and HUI have neutralized the downtrend before gold. Odds favor we’re heading towards 1330-1360 on a move above 1305.
Short Term ~ Neutral/Bullish – The short term trend has gone neutral with potential for a rise above 1300-1310 -- which would be bullish to 1340-1360. The only question is the next short term cycle due the 22nd as to a high or low.
Support and Resistance
Initial Resistance 1284-1294 and 2nd tier 1305-1315
Initial Support 1255-1265 and 2nd tier 1232-1242
Thursday’s numbers are below.
Gold Hourly Chart
Gold continues in a range where price was rejected right at the resistance area on the hourly chart and the situation now is that the short term cycle window arrives on the 19th of the month, has an ideal day of the 22nd, and can extend as late as the 25th.
Thus it is unknown what the control boys have in mind for Thursday’s testimony.
Add to this the fact that the G20 is meeting on Thursday and Friday. Gold could very well jump right back up and higher as soon as these meetings are over and could even do so on Thursday. However, the Wednesday peak and chart pattern looks a lot more vulnerable now with the selloff that transpired on Wednesday.
The key now is whether we break above the 3 resistance lines and exceed the 1300-1305 area or whether gold moves down to the lower support points on the chart.
The upper dotted trend line now extends to the 1325 area so if we do exceed 1305 odds favor that dotted would be the first stop. Since it would exceed the July 11th high, it would put the short term cycle into inversion and the move would most likely be quick.
Pullbacks to the 1255-1267 area is important to hold as the green 200 hour moving average and the yellow line and dotted trend line support resides there. Thus we can go in either direction the control boyz decide. The Wednesday move lower and chart pattern leaves the downside potential still in play. It takes a move and close above 1305 to favor higher. Unless that develops, another probe lower cannot be eliminated.
What Next?
The trade will be watching and the fact that Bernanke is testifying again this week has held gold at resistance.
If we get above 1304-1310 the upside should be in play BUT WE HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR A FAKE OUT AS JULY USUALLY DOES A FEW BEFORE THE REAL MOVE TAKES PLACE. If we hit that area any pullback has to hold the 1280-1290 area.
As long as we're above 1255-1262 the trend is up but it’s still questionable as we need to exceed that 1304 area in order to keep the upside in motion. Watch the yellow trend line on the hourly as support. Getting above those lines above 1304 is the key to higher and for the CLOSE TO BE ABOVE 1304. OTHERWISE, we can still pullback into the 22nd of the month (plus or minus 72 hours) where the short term cycle comes due. That would still be the best setup for gold as far as cycles go.
In summary, a metal rally is underway. We can get a pullback but odds favor prices are going to move higher into September. Over the short term – especially right now, we can move lower. We must get above 1305-1310 and close in that area. OTHERWISE, we can still move lower.
Its going to take an "event" of deflationary magnitude to put further price pressure on gold. For now, its best to favor higher into September.
We don't see how Bernanke can change his mind again, but we can't totally dismiss it. Regardless, the control boyz can still influence on the very short term, but intermediate term, higher prices are favored.
Bottom Line
Odds favor a medium term move higher is underway. Historically, the Fed meetings and the G20 meetings are usually not bullish for gold. The fact that we've been holding resistance and every downtrend attempt keeps getting bought certainly favors the upside.
YOU SHOULD NOT TAKE ANY MATERIAL posted on this BLOG AS RECOMMENDATIONS
TO BUY OR SELL GOLD OR ANY OTHER INVESTMENT VEHICLE LISTED.
TO BUY OR SELL GOLD OR ANY OTHER INVESTMENT VEHICLE LISTED.
Do your own due diligence.
No one knows tomorrow's price or circumstance.
I intend to portray my thoughts and ideas on the subject which may s be used as a tool for the reader.
I do not accept responsibility for being incorrect in my speculations on market trend.
I intend to portray my thoughts and ideas on the subject which may s be used as a tool for the reader.
I do not accept responsibility for being incorrect in my speculations on market trend.
King Regards
