Gold Trend July 19/2013

Long Term ~ Neutral – Need a monthly close above 1800 to confirm the bull market final phase underway
Medium Term ~ Bearish - Need a close above 1525-1580 to neutralize.
Intermediate Term ~ Neutral – GLD and HUI have neutralized the downtrend before gold. Odds favor we’re heading towards 1330-1360 on a move above 1305.
Short Term ~ Neutral/Bullish – The short term trend has gone neutral with potential for a rise above 1300-1310 -- which would be bullish to 1340-1360. The only question is the next short term cycle due the 22nd as to a high or low.
Support and Resistance
Initial Resistance 1295-1305 and 2nd tier 1320-1335
Initial Support 1265-1275 and 2nd tier 1245-1255

KEY RESISTANCE an Pivot POINTs for the WEEK
R1 and R2 are 1 and 2 standard deviations of resistance to the pivot point and S1 and S2 are supports of 1 and 2 standard deviation.
This week's number to watch 1299-1315 and 1347-1360 & the high going into Friday is 1299 so far this week.
Thursday’s numbers did not come close to any pivot points from Wednesday.
Friday numbers in range potential are circled. Lots of action between 1264-1274 and 1290-1296. Weekly R1 resistance would be 1315 if a big breakout develops.

Gold Hourly Chart

The gold chop and July head fakes are evident as we see four probes into resistance lines and the hard hourly move down on Wednesday after touching 1299. I watched the pattern from there remain very weak looking all the way into London where we couldn’t get above 1280 and rather than following thru lower (like silver did) gold held on and stayed at these resistance lines for most of the NY session. While gold remains in the dotted uptrend and above the green 200 hour moving average, silver threw me a spin as it has not held either one. This made me very skeptical about gold today as both metals usually stay together if prices are going higher. But gold failed to follow silver under the 200 hour average. It really adds to the current MIXED situation. Usually when silver give clues such as this it’s a caution that must be respected. It’s possible that silver will resolve back to the upside if gold moves above these resistance lines, but it is a caution when both metals are not in the same technical condition that all is not right and of course that makes it riskier.

In fact it’s downright aggravating as this condition still allows gold to choose either direction going into next week’s key cycle from July 19th --- 25th ---with the 22nd as the ideal date. This 19th – 22nd is also a grand trine cycle which according to the Geo timers is a major alignment cycle that has the capability of a major trend change in markets.

It has been since July 11th we have been in this pattern of 1260-1300. Odds do favor a breakout higher out of this but look at the times it has stopped at these lines. One side is going to lose this battle. If the bulls win, expect a move to the upper white line now at the 1340 area. If the bears keep a cap here, then we can visit 1250 next week. If we break above the resistance lines, price must move ABOVE THE 1305-1310 AREA to really break out, BUT IT MUST HOLD ABOVE THIS AREA ONCE A BREAK OCCURS.

In summary and with everything combined, the situation does favor the upside, but technically we can’t fully confirm this pattern without another break above 1300. The point that really BROUGHT the risk and move into question was when silver could not move above the June 21st high on Wednesday, then broke down almost a FULL dollar during Wednesday, and then could not get back above the 200 hour moving average by time we got to London. While it can resolve higher in silver, it is not good when both metals are not in line and it makes for a split market where moves can develop in either direction.

What's Next?

The best thing that could happen to line up the cycles would be for gold and silver to pullback into next week but that is not what is happening. The blue cycle high is a concern. However, if we have made a major low on June 28th (during the medium term cycle week of June 21st) then it is possible that the blue cycle (that gave us a high prior to the crash in March) could be signaling a major low point is developing with this inversion.

For the moment, the short term trend is still up in gold and we still can move higher into next week. The thing that threw me was SILVER breaking BELOW the short term trend line and the 200 hour moving average. IF SILVER rallies hard and back above the 200 hour average and the trend line, then gold can also move above 1305-1310 and head higher into next week.

All we can do at the moment is watch to see if silver recovers the big drop and gold breaks the resistance lines that have held it. It’s a total mixed bag, but should soon resolve.

Bottom Line
Short term is very mixed, but intermediate and medium term continue to favor we have at least a bottom that should produce a good bounce into September. Based on the pattern, we’ll get an idea of how much strength is behind the move.

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GOLD CURRENT TRADE 
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SOLD 
0.33 Standard Lot Gold At 1294
  Stop 1304 On July 18/2013
Target 1230
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YOU SHOULD NOT TAKE ANY MATERIAL posted on this BLOG AS RECOMMENDATIONS 
TO BUY OR SELL GOLD OR ANY OTHER INVESTMENT VEHICLE LISTED. 

 Do your own due diligence. 

No one knows tomorrow's price or circumstance. 
 I intend to portray my thoughts and ideas on the subject which may s be used as a tool for the reader. 
I do not accept responsibility for being incorrect in my speculations on market trend. 

 King Regards