Long Term ~ Neutral ~ need a monthly close above 1800 to confirm the bull market final phase underway
Medium Term ~ Bearish - Need a close above 1461-1529 to neutralize.
Intermediate Term ~ Bullish– Need to hold above 1320-1325 weekly. A close below 1272 would return to neutral mode. Support 1350. Above 1350 bullish.
Short Term ~ bullish– Price has reached resistance at 1434 --- and found support at 1372. Additional support at 1350 and resistance at 1420-1430. Short term cycle due to peak this week.
Support and Resistance
Initial Resistance 1420-1426 and 2nd tier 1425-1435
Initial Support 1380-1386 and 2nd tier 1362-1372
CME GROUP NEWS
The gold market started out soft and then came under what appeared to be additional technically inspired selling pressure. Some players suggested that fresh fears of tapering by the Fed was responsible for the slide in gold prices today but today's reaction seemed to be a little overdone off a series of data points that was to a degree somewhat conflicting. Others assumed that a strike on Syria might be significantly delayed or might be very limited and therefore some safe haven longs might have fled to the exits. With developing weakness in US Treasuries in the afternoon trade the threat of tapering was certainly more plausible than it was in the Wednesday morning trade action. With the last known headline flow from South Africa hinting at the prospect of compromise, the slide in gold prices today wasn't that surprising. However, to think that the wage dispute will be solved within 48 hours and without an extended strike might be a highly suspect line of thinking.
In spite of lower initial jobless claims, payroll increases are expected to be modest
This Friday's US non-farm payrolls report is likely to be one of the most impactful pieces of economic data for global financial markets in recent months. All major asset classes will be impacted because this is considered the one critical piece of data the Fed will need to make its decision at the next FOMC meeting. The expectations for new jobs, particularly the private payrolls number continue to be tempered. According to Econoday, the average forecast for August is 178,000 new private jobs and 175,000 total.
While these numbers are sufficient for the Fed to begin tapering its purchases, the forecasts are not great - the average number of jobs created per month over the past couple of years is 188,000.
The control boyz will do their thing on Friday then.
Gold Technical
The 1425-1435 area is resistance on Thursday. A close above 1425-1435 allows for further upside towards 1460-1480. Short term cycles are due to peak Sept 3rd (plus or minus 72 hours). Thus it is still possible for gold to peak this week and pullback towards the 17th-21st of the month. September is usually a strong month for gold but there is a consideration that July and August were strong and there is a potential that gold’s seasonal rally was early this year as was the case in 2011. Until we break below 1350-1372 the potential to stay in an uptrend can’t be removed.
KEY RESISTANCE and Pivot POINTs for the WEEK
R1 and R2 are 1 and 2 standard deviations of resistance to the pivot point and S1 and S2 are supports of 1 and 2 standard deviation.
Last week’s numbers to watch was 1420-1430. (HIGH LAST WEEK WAS 1434)
This week’s number to watch is the same, 1420-1430 and 1445-1455.
NOTE: new numbers out for the monthly (and weekly).
Gold Hourly Chart
Gold plunged early this week to key support at 1372 and then spent Tuesday retracing a majority of last week’s loss. We came right back up to resistance at the mini blue line on the chart at 1417 and then plunged back down to 1390 on Wednesday. Support is the yellow line and 38% Fib at 1372-1382 and the yellow and 50% Fib at 1350-1362 and the next resistance is 1425-1435 and potentially at 1402-1410.
The overall trend remains up. It’s just a question of whether the short term cycles kick in or not.
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YOU SHOULD NOT TAKE ANY MATERIAL posted on this BLOG AS RECOMMENDATIONS
TO BUY OR SELL GOLD OR ANY OTHER INVESTMENT VEHICLE LISTED.
TO BUY OR SELL GOLD OR ANY OTHER INVESTMENT VEHICLE LISTED.
Do your own due diligence.
No one knows tomorrow's price or circumstance.
I intend to portray my thoughts and ideas on the subject which may s be used as a tool for the reader.
I do not accept responsibility for being incorrect in my speculations on market trend.
I intend to portray my thoughts and ideas on the subject which may s be used as a tool for the reader.
I do not accept responsibility for being incorrect in my speculations on market trend.
King Regards
