Long Term ~ Neutral - need a monthly close above 1800
to confirm the bull market final phase underway
Medium Term ~ Bearish - Need a close above 1461-1529 to neutralize.
Intermediate Term ~ Bullish – Need to hold above 1320-1325 weekly. A close below 1272 would return to neutral mode. Support 1350. Above 1350 bullish.
Short Term ~ Neutral– support 1350-1360 and 1322-1333
Support and Resistance
Initial Resistance 1372-1384 and 2nd tier 1391-1401
Initial Support 1344-1354 and 2nd tier 1322-1334
Medium Term ~ Bearish - Need a close above 1461-1529 to neutralize.
Intermediate Term ~ Bullish – Need to hold above 1320-1325 weekly. A close below 1272 would return to neutral mode. Support 1350. Above 1350 bullish.
Short Term ~ Neutral– support 1350-1360 and 1322-1333
Support and Resistance
Initial Resistance 1372-1384 and 2nd tier 1391-1401
Initial Support 1344-1354 and 2nd tier 1322-1334
We now have three tests of the 1355-1358 area and each have hourly reversal bars. But price can’t get back above 1370.
Resistance starts at 1366 to 1373 and then at 1380-1386. Until gold gets back above 1395-1405 the downtrend that began last week is still in play but we have reached an important support area for the week. It has held all week but it is about to OVERSTAY its visit. In other words, if we don’t move out if this area today, odds are going to favor it breaks. Since it’s the bottom of the channel line a penetration to 1344 would be ok. But if it can’t old 1344 then odds favor 1322-1334 would become the next price target.
What's Next?
We got our lower price into Wednesday but is gold strong enough to give us a bounce. I felt yes on Wednesday, but the action so far looks weak. Cycles still favor next week as the short term turn. With the premium on Syria way down, oil down, and many worried about the FED TAPE and commodities doing nothing, its hard to get metals to react higher. Finally the FED FOMC meeting is next week and traders might very well be lightning up positions and remaining on the sidelines until the FED meeting passes.
It comes down to whether the 1350 area holds on Thursday. Allow up to 1344. If that is taken out, then 1322-1333 would be the next target.
The big rise from July and August is so far correcting in September. We’ve discussed from the get go that the seasonal could have occurred early this year as it did in 2011. That scenario is still in play. SO what we are seeing is September correct instead of October.
The German elections are within two weeks, and the USA budget debate is about to begin. When we throw in the huge exit of stocks and currency due to taper fears, it has brought back some LIQUIDITY CONCERNS. As we’ve stated for a very long time, a liquidity crisis is the only thing we see that can bring gold down. So far, that scenario has played out in 2008 and for all intents and purposes, has played out in 2013. The global economy is unable to sustain itself and QE printing and bailouts go to bad debt and bonds and equities. None of it has gone to the economy and thus we are where we are. Finally, the interest rate rise has a lot of carry trade money having to cash in. We still need to be cautious as the big traders have been back for only the 2nd week and already we can see they’ve been attacking gold since their return. Now the big events for September are in front of us and that INCLUDES THE FED FOMC MEETING that begins next Tuesday and right on the next short term cycle. Keep in mind the medium term cycles are in play also due Sept 21st (plus or minus 2.5 weeks). The 2012 Sept cycle provided the high of the year on October 5th (within the 2.5 weeks).
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YOU SHOULD NOT TAKE ANY MATERIAL posted on this BLOG AS RECOMMENDATIONS
TO BUY OR SELL GOLD OR ANY OTHER INVESTMENT VEHICLE LISTED.
TO BUY OR SELL GOLD OR ANY OTHER INVESTMENT VEHICLE LISTED.
Do your own due diligence.
No one knows tomorrow's price or circumstance.
I intend to portray my thoughts and ideas on the subject which may s be used as a tool for the reader.
I do not accept responsibility for being incorrect in my speculations on market trend.
I intend to portray my thoughts and ideas on the subject which may s be used as a tool for the reader.
I do not accept responsibility for being incorrect in my speculations on market trend.
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