Fundamentals
Reuters informs that Gold prices ended up about 1.0 percent on Friday,
driven up by a possible shutdown of U.S. government operations next week
and the threat of a debt default in mid-October, as well as by the
prospects for continued easy monetary policy from the Federal Reserve.
The U.S. government braced on Friday for the possibility of a partial
shutdown of operations on Oct. 1 as Congress struggled to pass an
emergency spending bill that Republicans want to use to de-fund the new
healthcare reform law. Congress also faces the hard task of raising the
limit on federal borrowing authority, which Republicans are targeting
for controversial add-ons. Without a debt limit increase by Oct. 17,
U.S. Treasury Secretary Jack Lew has warned, the United States would
have a difficult time paying creditors and operating the government.
"Number one, people are worried about what's going on with the potential
government shutdown and looking to gold for a safe asset," said to
Reuters New York Donald Selkin, chief market strategist at National
Securities Corp. in New York. "And second," he said, "The comments from
Fed President Evans, when he said 'No tapering,' which means the dollar
could weaken and gold would go up because there's more money floating
around." Charles Evans, president of the Chicago Federal Reserve Bank
told reporters on Friday, there was a "decent chance" that tapering
could start in October or December, but it could be pushed into 2014."
Yesterday, guys, we also have made some comments on this subject in
fundamental part of our EUR weekly research. This is really interesting
and thrilling topic, thus, it will be just perfect – if you will read it
and we can open discussion on forum.
CFTC data still shows flat action, at least open interest has not
changed much within previous month. Report does not give us additional
clarification. Although net position is changing and has grown on
previous week – open interest has not changed. It means that market
stands indecision, and no new contracts were added. Position is changing
because already existed contracts just change the holder.
Monthly
Fortunately or unfortunately, guys, but we can’t add much comments on
monthly chart. September candle still inside one for August.
It might happen that we now stand at the eve of some important events as we’ve said above and who knows, may be we will have to drastically change our view on the market soon. But right now we will continue to hold with our previous analysis suggesting that market now stands in upward retracement. September black candle is not a tragedy and even looks absolutely reasonable. Take a look, we have almost a year of consequtive drop – month by month. Previous 2 candles were the first ones up. Bearish momentum is not disappear it still on the market and presses on it, does not let market freely change sentiment. Thus, such sort of “returns” should not surprise us. All other analysis here is still the same. Current move down probably should become a part of compounded retracement up, until market will not take current lows. Only in this case we could say that bearish trend has continued.
We keep in mind Volatility breakout pattern and know that there will be 3-leg downward action. This means that current bounce will be just retracement probably. Second, currently we know that market at support – Fib support, target of rectangle breakout, completion of double harmonic swing down and monthly deep oversold. Unfortunately monthly chart does not give us much assistance in short-term trading. One bullish pattern that probably could be seen here is bullish DiNapoli “Stretch” pattern, since market stands at deep oversold right at Fib support. Target of this pattern is a middle between Oscillator Predictor Bands – right around 1550$ area. That is also the lower border of long-term consolidation after historical peak. This area agrees with “Stretch” pattern as well.
It might happen that we now stand at the eve of some important events as we’ve said above and who knows, may be we will have to drastically change our view on the market soon. But right now we will continue to hold with our previous analysis suggesting that market now stands in upward retracement. September black candle is not a tragedy and even looks absolutely reasonable. Take a look, we have almost a year of consequtive drop – month by month. Previous 2 candles were the first ones up. Bearish momentum is not disappear it still on the market and presses on it, does not let market freely change sentiment. Thus, such sort of “returns” should not surprise us. All other analysis here is still the same. Current move down probably should become a part of compounded retracement up, until market will not take current lows. Only in this case we could say that bearish trend has continued.
We keep in mind Volatility breakout pattern and know that there will be 3-leg downward action. This means that current bounce will be just retracement probably. Second, currently we know that market at support – Fib support, target of rectangle breakout, completion of double harmonic swing down and monthly deep oversold. Unfortunately monthly chart does not give us much assistance in short-term trading. One bullish pattern that probably could be seen here is bullish DiNapoli “Stretch” pattern, since market stands at deep oversold right at Fib support. Target of this pattern is a middle between Oscillator Predictor Bands – right around 1550$ area. That is also the lower border of long-term consolidation after historical peak. This area agrees with “Stretch” pattern as well.
Weekly
Passed week also was an inside one. Two weeks ago market action has
taken shape on high wave pattern and indicated that market stands
indecision. New candle, although has shown shy upward action, in
general, shows rather tight range and just confirms our thoughts that
we’ve made in fundamental part of research – investors are waiting of
changes and do not take fast and drastical steps.
Speaking about previous analysis, mostly it is stands the same. It is
too early to say that market has started move down again. Current price
action is absolutely normal for reversal swing. Trend holds bullish,
market stands at 50% support level and MPS1. Recent candles as we’ve
said, mostly indicates indecision, since price has closed around open
level. Retracement down is also reasonable, since market has hit major
0.382 Fib resistance level. Taking into consideration previous bearish
power and momentum, market just can’t show light retracement, since
momentum is still here and it should be fade out particularly by deep
retracements. In general, we probably will say that market has
re-established bearish trend only if it will take out current lows
around 1170. Or if we will see some clear signs of inability to move
higher.
Daily
Bearish context has become stronger on Friday. As we do not have much
to discuss on monthly and weekly charts, here we have a lot. Previous
week was tight consolidation that has created bearish flag pattern.
Market has not shown any signs that could confirm its bullish ambitions.
As a result, upward action was shy and bearish stop grabber still
holds, although market has not quite reached its target yet. Even more,
on Friday we’ve got another one – right inside the flag. Thus, hopes on
easy upward continuation with suggested butterfly are melting fast and
probably we should be ready for downward action on coming week. Trend is
bearish here and market not at oversold. If downward action will start
we could get two different AB-CD patterns. Here I draw first and greater
one, second AB=CD we will discuss below. Interestingly, that 0.618
target stands at 1288 - slightly lower than previous lows and this
target perfectly agree with stop grabbers. Also it opens the door for
W&R, because market could just accomplish AB-CD minor target and
then turn back. It stands very close to 5/8 Fib support as well. Market
has a lot of possibilities for different pitfalls and it is very
difficult to predict what will happen in really. Still, let’s focus on
the first step – move to 1288.
4-hour
But 4-hour chart really could put paid on bulls’ hopes. Just take a
look at it. Huge butterfly “Buy” with 1.27 extension around 1270 – in
agreement with major 5/8 Fib support. Inner AB=CD pattern also has 100%
target around 1280 – that’s our second AB=CD.
So, let’s try to combine the puzzle and see what we have. Bearish trend
on daily, two bearish stop grabbers with minimum target around 1288,
market’s inability to start move up on previous week that takes the
shape of bearish flag and finally – butterfly “buy” with 1.27 extension
in agreement with 5/8 Fib support with daily grabber as a starting point
of right wing down. I do not want to take long positon by far, since I
do not see reasons for that. Conversely, we have mostly bearish context
probably.
1-hour
Here market is taking the shape of rising wedge (daily flag pattern).
Four waves have been done already inside of the wedge and usually
breakout takes place on 5th wave and it should be down. It is possible
that market could move slightly higher and even create a new high. In
this case it will reach 5/8 Fib resistance and take the shape of 3-Drive
Sell pattern. But situation on hourly chart absolutely does not
contradict with overall picture on other time frames.
Conclusion
Situation becomes tough on financial markets. In October we will get a
lot of significant fundamental events and we have suspicion that it
could lead to huge flow among assets, particularly speaking – out of US
stocks.
Meantime in short-term perspective, gold has failed to convince us with
possible upward continuation and probability now stands in favor of bearish development
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2. Send me your MT4 trading account number and email address
3. Send me your Paypal or Moneybookers account number
If you do not have a Paypal or Moneybookers account,
please click on one of the links below to open your free account today.
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You will be paid $10 per standard lot of Gold traded and
all payments will be made by the 25th of each month.
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YOU SHOULD NOT TAKE ANY MATERIAL posted on this BLOG AS RECOMMENDATIONS
TO BUY OR SELL GOLD OR ANY OTHER INVESTMENT VEHICLE LISTED.
TO BUY OR SELL GOLD OR ANY OTHER INVESTMENT VEHICLE LISTED.
Do your own due diligence.
No one knows tomorrow's price or circumstance.
I intend to portray my thoughts and ideas on the subject which may s be used as a tool for the reader.
I do not accept responsibility for being incorrect in my speculations on market trend.
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I do not accept responsibility for being incorrect in my speculations on market trend.
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