Long Term ~ Neutral - need a monthly close above 1800 to confirm the
bull market final phase underway
Medium Term ~ Bearish - Need a close above 1412-1480 to neutralize.
Intermediate Term ~ Bearish –Need close above 1375 for bullish.
Short Term ~ Bearish -- takes a close above 1322 for neutral.
Support and Resistance
Initial Resistance 1333-1344 and 2nd tier 1361-1367
Initial Support 1309-1316 and 2nd tier 1291-1301
CME GROUP NEWS
Gold Overview
Shanghai weekly gold deliveries
R1 and R2 represent 1st and 2nd standard deviations from the pivots for resistance and the S1 and S2 represent 1st and 2nd standard deviations from the pivots for support.
Medium Term ~ Bearish - Need a close above 1412-1480 to neutralize.
Intermediate Term ~ Bearish –Need close above 1375 for bullish.
Short Term ~ Bearish -- takes a close above 1322 for neutral.
Support and Resistance
Initial Resistance 1333-1344 and 2nd tier 1361-1367
Initial Support 1309-1316 and 2nd tier 1291-1301
CME GROUP NEWS
To start the week gold managed to extend the prior week's pattern of
higher lows on Monday and gold finished the trade right on the highest
levels since October 1st. With gold, silver and platinum all clawing out
significant gains on the first trading session of the new week, it
would appear that gold is indeed catching some flight to quality lift.
At times last week, gold was behaving like a physical commodity market
being periodically pressured by global slowing fears. However, renewed
weakness in the Dollar ongoing weakness in equities and indications that
US leaders aren't in a compromising mood yet could leave gold in line
for ongoing safe haven bidding.
Gold Overview
Part of the weakness in precious metals last week was surely due to
markets for the world's most important gold buyer - China - being shut
down due to the Golden Week holiday that concludes on Monday. Gold
import data from Hong Kong is set to be released early this week and
that should be a key factor in whether metal prices rise or fall in the
days ahead. Reuters reported that gold premiums at the Shanghai Gold
Exchange recently fell to as low as $7 after climbing to more than $40
over the summer in a sign that some analysts see as fading demand in the
Middle Kingdom.
The weekly average delivery this year has been 43.87 tonnes, matching
global mine supply ex-China which averages 44 tonnes per week. Add in
Hong Kong, and the rest of the world has to sell down its gold holdings
just to supply China’s private sector demand. This does not include
unrecorded demand from the mega-rich buying directly in foreign markets.
Furthermore, this week China announced it would liberate the market
further, granting more dealer licences to import and export gold,
leading to yet more potential demand.
Last weeks plunge to 1276 broke the September low of 1291 and cleared stops just below the monthly range. That move with China closed and the push back to 1322 on Monday continues to highlight this most important number. 1322 was the crash low in April and it continues to be a magnet. However it is just about time for 1322 to exit from the limelight for the time being.
Last weeks plunge to 1276 broke the September low of 1291 and cleared stops just below the monthly range. That move with China closed and the push back to 1322 on Monday continues to highlight this most important number. 1322 was the crash low in April and it continues to be a magnet. However it is just about time for 1322 to exit from the limelight for the time being.
R1 and R2 represent 1st and 2nd standard deviations from the pivots for resistance and the S1 and S2 represent 1st and 2nd standard deviations from the pivots for support.
The FOMC minutes due to be released on Wednesday will most likely be
the mover for the week. Odds favor that gold should remain at bay on
Tuesday with 1338-1343 as resistance where the purple downtrend line and
yellow uptrend line reside. 1st support is 1312-1320. The hourly chart
seems to be forming support at the green 200 hour moving average at 1320
and that might be the support we see on Tuesday.
As far as the FOMC notes, it’s rare (but not impossible) that much happens on the upside in gold the day before and the purple hourly resistance line near 1340 should provide the resistance. The chart is beginning to favor that the purple down trend line is probably at a point where it is vulnerable to giving way as it has been tested so many times. Odds favor it will only happen (if its going to) after the FOMC minutes on Wednesday.
As far as the FOMC notes, it’s rare (but not impossible) that much happens on the upside in gold the day before and the purple hourly resistance line near 1340 should provide the resistance. The chart is beginning to favor that the purple down trend line is probably at a point where it is vulnerable to giving way as it has been tested so many times. Odds favor it will only happen (if its going to) after the FOMC minutes on Wednesday.
Because of the big taper move from 1291 to 1370 in one day when the
last blue cycle window was open and the subsequent low at 1276 last week
it appears that we had a cycle inversion at the last blue cycle.
One note of interest is we have to be careful of this setup that I have highlighted with the circled portion of the chart. The April crash low had a similar blue cycle failure and once the Red cycle appeared, the bottom fell out and gold fell dramatically. In order for this to gain credibility we need to see a close below 1270. Until then gold and the short term cycle should be favored as providing a bounce into the next short term cycle is due on October 18th.
Gold needs to get out of this price wedge one way or another in order to get a more sustainable trend.
One note of interest is we have to be careful of this setup that I have highlighted with the circled portion of the chart. The April crash low had a similar blue cycle failure and once the Red cycle appeared, the bottom fell out and gold fell dramatically. In order for this to gain credibility we need to see a close below 1270. Until then gold and the short term cycle should be favored as providing a bounce into the next short term cycle is due on October 18th.
Gold needs to get out of this price wedge one way or another in order to get a more sustainable trend.
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If you do not have a Paypal or Moneybookers account,
please click on one of the links below to open your free account today.
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YOU SHOULD NOT TAKE ANY MATERIAL posted on this BLOG AS RECOMMENDATIONS
TO BUY OR SELL GOLD OR ANY OTHER INVESTMENT VEHICLE LISTED.
TO BUY OR SELL GOLD OR ANY OTHER INVESTMENT VEHICLE LISTED.
Do your own due diligence.
No one knows tomorrow's price or circumstance.
I intend to portray my thoughts and ideas on the subject which may s be used as a tool for the reader.
I do not accept responsibility for being incorrect in my speculations on market trend.
I intend to portray my thoughts and ideas on the subject which may s be used as a tool for the reader.
I do not accept responsibility for being incorrect in my speculations on market trend.
King Regards
