On the upside if we can’t get
back above 1311-1316 on Thursday,
the bears will still have the advantage.
GOLD SWIFT SIGNALS
the bears will still have the advantage.
GOLD SWIFT SIGNALS
Long Term ~ Neutral - need a monthly close above 1800 to confirm the bull market final phase underway
Medium Term ~ Bearish - Need a close above 1402-1460 to neutralize.
Intermediate Term ~ Bearish –Need close above 1375 for bullish.
Short Term ~ Bearish ~ takes a close above 1338-1343 for bullish
Support and Resistance
Initial Resistance 1311-1322 and 2nd tier 1333-1343
Initial Support 1283-1296 and 2nd tier 1263-1273
the last update listed resistance at 1333-1344 and the high was 1324. Support was listed at 1309-1316 and 2nd tier at 1291-1301 and the low was 1294.
CME GROUP NEWS
Gold Overview
The cycle inversion from the taper high on the blue cycle took place to the red cycle low at 1277 last week. If we close below 1263-1270 it would favor a continuance of the downtrend and extend it to 4 weeks into October 18th. As mentioned previously, that would favor a potential important low in gold and silver.
Gold Pivot points
R1 and R2 represent 1st and 2nd standard deviations from the pivots for resistance and the S1 and S2 represent 1st and 2nd standard deviations from the pivots for support.
Gold Short Term
What's Next?
The trend is down and the scenario of another drop into the next blue cycle into October 18th is increasing in strength. If that develops the price drop could be steep but it could also produce a very important low point for gold. Until we get above 1322-1333 its best to remain extremely cautious about any upside activity. The daily chart has us at the lower end of the wedge and if that gives way then gold should move lower into the middle to end of next week.
Watch the flush out line on the hourly chart. If that gives way then the 1263-1273 area can come into play. On the upside if we can’t get back above 1311-1316 on Thursday, the bears will still have the advantage.
Bottom Line
until we come out of the wedge on the daily chart, gold is mostly neutral. The current set up does allow for gold to correct substantially so it’s best to remain cautious. The fundamental for gold to rise because of a major debt crisis that is coming globally is going to play out. But a liquidity crisis that we have warned about for quite a while is still in the making and we have always stated that if that’s the case, then gold must first fall before the big move. We’re getting closer and closer to that end, but it still hasn't played out.
Medium Term ~ Bearish - Need a close above 1402-1460 to neutralize.
Intermediate Term ~ Bearish –Need close above 1375 for bullish.
Short Term ~ Bearish ~ takes a close above 1338-1343 for bullish
Support and Resistance
Initial Resistance 1311-1322 and 2nd tier 1333-1343
Initial Support 1283-1296 and 2nd tier 1263-1273
the last update listed resistance at 1333-1344 and the high was 1324. Support was listed at 1309-1316 and 2nd tier at 1291-1301 and the low was 1294.
CME GROUP NEWS
The gold market was generally under pressure on Wednesday but at times
it appeared as if the trade was trying to embrace a possible US debt
ceiling solution. However, others might suggest that gold was primarily
undermined over the last 24 hours by noted gains in the US Dollar.
Others might maintain that gold was undeservedly pressured because of
backward looking Indian gold import news. In fact, gold fell on
Wednesday despite some stories that were starting to foment ideas of
improving Indian festival demand. Interestingly enough the December gold
contract did manage a low to high bounce off the FOMC meeting minutes
of $12 an ounce and that would seem to suggest that gold can still
manage some support from the hope that US QE will remain in place for
the near future. The bull camp might also point out that December gold
on Wednesday was able to climb almost $20 an ounce off the early lows.
Therefore the bear camp has had an edge this week, but the bear camp has
also been periodically challenged.
Gold Overview
Our outlook this week that gold is usually limited to the upside
during FOMC week has played out and gold was taken down under 1300 on
Wednesday.
Gold managed to avoid a daily sell signal by holding above the 1301
level. Still the potential to move lower into the 18th of the month
(plus or minus 72 hours) remains in effect. There’s strong resistance
forming now at the 1333-1343 level and it would take a close above 1345
for gold to gain a more bullish read on the short and intermediate term.
Silver also has resistance at the 23 level that must be overcome in order to have a more short term bullish view.
From the short term cycles portion of the report
If we get a hard sell off into the Oct 18th time frame there’s a
good chance that it could form the low for the month and potentially
give us a good rally opportunity like we saw in July/August. If by some
chance we could drop just a bit under the June low and then reverse it
would be a strong indication that the gold lows are in place. The key
now at this point is gold needs to take out 1260-1270 in order to HIGHLY
increase the chances of that coming into play. This month or January is
still the best time targets for that to happen if it’s going to.
The cycle inversion from the taper high on the blue cycle took place to the red cycle low at 1277 last week. If we close below 1263-1270 it would favor a continuance of the downtrend and extend it to 4 weeks into October 18th. As mentioned previously, that would favor a potential important low in gold and silver.
Gold Pivot points
R1 and R2 represent 1st and 2nd standard deviations from the pivots for resistance and the S1 and S2 represent 1st and 2nd standard deviations from the pivots for support.
Gold Short Term
Last night’s observation of a choppy and overlap pattern and its
bearish connotation once again played out and keeping out of the long
side as gold dropped from 1323 all the way to 1294 at the flush out
line. It did avoid a daily closing sell signal by closing above it by
day’s end.
The one thing that has uncertainty is the cycles are very mixed and it
is entirely possible for them to give way into another two weeks lower.
Those times are rare and so while the odds are not with it, when they
do happen prices usually drop pretty hard. While we did make the low of
the week so far on mid week Wednesday, the weakness in price does allow
for more downside action. Initial support is the flush out line near
1291-1295 but if that doesn’t hold then the 1263-1273 area comes into
play.
The bottom line at the moment is price is not in an uptrend on the short term, it’s in a downtrend
and the pattern is choppy and overlapping. The question now is whether
the sell off from that pattern extends. As long as we are below
1322-1333 the downtrend is favored at the moment. We could see
resistance at 1311-1316 as well on Thursday.
What's Next?
The trend is down and the scenario of another drop into the next blue cycle into October 18th is increasing in strength. If that develops the price drop could be steep but it could also produce a very important low point for gold. Until we get above 1322-1333 its best to remain extremely cautious about any upside activity. The daily chart has us at the lower end of the wedge and if that gives way then gold should move lower into the middle to end of next week.
Watch the flush out line on the hourly chart. If that gives way then the 1263-1273 area can come into play. On the upside if we can’t get back above 1311-1316 on Thursday, the bears will still have the advantage.
Bottom Line
until we come out of the wedge on the daily chart, gold is mostly neutral. The current set up does allow for gold to correct substantially so it’s best to remain cautious. The fundamental for gold to rise because of a major debt crisis that is coming globally is going to play out. But a liquidity crisis that we have warned about for quite a while is still in the making and we have always stated that if that’s the case, then gold must first fall before the big move. We’re getting closer and closer to that end, but it still hasn't played out.
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If you do not have a Paypal or Moneybookers account,
please click on one of the links below to open your free account today.
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You will be paid $10 per standard lot of Gold traded and
all payments will be made by the 25th of each month.
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YOU SHOULD NOT TAKE ANY MATERIAL posted on this BLOG AS RECOMMENDATIONS
TO BUY OR SELL GOLD OR ANY OTHER INVESTMENT VEHICLE LISTED.
TO BUY OR SELL GOLD OR ANY OTHER INVESTMENT VEHICLE LISTED.
Do your own due diligence.
No one knows tomorrow's price or circumstance.
I intend to portray my thoughts and ideas on the subject which may s be used as a tool for the reader.
I do not accept responsibility for being incorrect in my speculations on market trend.
I intend to portray my thoughts and ideas on the subject which may s be used as a tool for the reader.
I do not accept responsibility for being incorrect in my speculations on market trend.
King Regards
