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Tuesday, October 22, 2013

Gold Trend Oct 22/2013

 Long Term ~ Neutral - need a monthly close above 1800 to confirm the bull market final phase underway
Medium Term ~ Bearish - Need a close above 1402-1460 to neutralize.
Intermediate Term ~ NEUTRAL –Need close above 1343 for bullish.
Short Term ~ Neutral ~ Short term prices are caught inside a wedge trading range.
See short term cycles chart.
Support and Resistance
Initial Resistance 1323-1233 and 2nd tier 1343-1352
Initial Support 1301-1311 and 2nd tier 1282-1290


 Gold Pivot points
R1 and R2 represent 1st and 2nd standard deviations from the pivots for resistance and the S1 and S2 represent 1st and 2nd standard deviations from the pivots for support.
THE 1300-1310 AREA LOOKS TO BE IMPORTANT FOR TUESDAY SUPPORT

Gold Short Term
Today’s short term chart is the NY trade only. It has a different purple downtrend line point than the 24 hour chart. On the NY chart, the downtrend has not been exceeded yet. Since the MAJORITY of all trade is still in NY it is important. Price is hugging that line since the high on Thursday. Odds/cycles still favor it will break out to the upside in a short term rally going into Nov 3rd. With the JOBS REPORT TODAY, gold could get as low as 1291 or the 1305 area and then resume the challenge to take out the purple downtrend line and continue higher. BUT UNTIL WE TAKE OUT THE PURPLE LINE and get above 1322-1325 the downtrend channel is still active. With the short term cycles in up mode odds favor gold is just pulling back into the jobs report and should gear up to get above the downtrend line. If successful gold should run towards 1333-1343 next.
Initial Resistance 1323-1233 and 2nd tier 1343-1352
Initial Support 1301-1311 and 2nd tier 1282-1290

What's Next?
The JOBS report is out Tuesday this week. We’re most likely pulling back toward 1305-1311 or 1292 into the report. With short term cycles in up mode gold should make its low for the week either today or tomorrow at the latest and we favor higher into Nov 3rd. We still need to get above the purple downtrend line and 1322-1325. There’s weekly resistance of 1333-1343 for this week. Overall that’s a lot of resistance points close by but we’re in a downtrend and that’s how it usually is. The key is the short term cycles do favor gold to be fighting towards the upside.
Bottom line
Gold is more in a trading range at this time but medium term it seems to be setting up. The wedge is the trading range, and 1322 is the midway of the wedge and remains important. LOWER support is the 1270-1275 area and any move there would be a buy opportunity for a short term trade. IF THE JOBS REPORT IS GOLD BULLISH EXPECT A MOVE TO BEGIN THIS MORNINT TOWARDS 1330-1340.

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TO BUY OR SELL GOLD OR ANY OTHER INVESTMENT VEHICLE LISTED. 
 Do your own due diligence. 
No one knows tomorrow's price or circumstance. 
 I intend to portray my thoughts and ideas on the subject which may s be used as a tool for the reader. 
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