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Monthly
Weekly
Daily
4-hour
Monthly
As you remember our major concern on monthly chart is about possible pattern. What current move up will be – either still AB=CD up or downward continuation? It is still difficult to make any forecasts, but I have to note that current October candle now looks better than on previous week and more in a row with possible upward move. But still, despite on rally and taking into consideration recent CFTC data, situation still unclear.
As you know our previous analysis (recall volatility breakout - VOB) suggests upward retracement. As market has significantly hit oversold we’ve suggested that retracement up should be solid, may be not right to overbought, but still significant. Take a look at previous bounces out from oversold – everytime retracement was significant. Thus, we’ve made an assumption of possible deeper upward retracement that could take a shape of AB=CD, and invalidation for this setup is previous lows around 1170s. If market will pass through it, then, obviously we will not see any AB=CD up.
So, as a conclusion on monthly chart we can say, that we have reasons to suggest some more upward action due strong oversold and some other moments and currently october candle looks better from this point of view. But having a lot data ahead anything could change fast.
Weekly
This chart is not as useful as it was on previous week. Price has hit our minimum target round MPP and also reached grabber’s minimum target. This is absolutely does not mean that market has no chances to continue move up, but if we would like to take long position, we need something more valuable that could assure us with this continuation, and now I see nothing except bullish trend and moment that price stands above MPP.
At the same time we can’t take short position here, since trend is bullish and we do not have any bearish directional patterns. If we assume that we’re right and sentiment is bullish, then next target stands at 1400-1410 – MPR1, AB-CD minor extension target and major 3/8 Fib resistance at 1415. So, as conclusion of weekly chart analysis we can say that trend here is bullish with invalidation point around 1250 lows and until they will hold we can focus on searching possibility for long entry, if we will not find something contrary on lower time frames.
Daily
As clear directional patterns have been worked out, daily chart now creates more riddles than solutions. Here is what I mean. In short term perspective situation is bullish – trend is up and market is not at overbought. Price has closed above MPP. First pattern that we could find on picture below is possible reverse H&S with butterfly “buy” as a left shoulder. Why I think on H&S either is because of butterfly. Very often butterflies become a part particularly of H&S pattern.
But now we’re moving to most interesting. We could get either symmetrical triangle and it will look like pennant on monthly chart. This is continuation pattern. And even more – we could get weekly butterfly “buy”. Probably now you can recognize it – the left wing is based on head of H&S pattern. If this indeed will be butterfly, then 1.618 target will stand around 1000$. At the same time, if even market will continue to our 1400, it will not erase this possibility, because initial swing of big butterfly will remain intact. By these thoughts I come to following conclusions. We have to be extra careful with taking longs now, because right wing of butterfly could start at any resistance – WPR1, our 1400 area or even earlier. That’s why if we would take long position, it has to be based on some clear pattern on lower time frame. We can’t enter short yet, since we do not have reasons to do it right now.
Second moment, why I’m a bit worry about upward action – it reminds me retracement. It’s too choppy to call it as impulse move up. We do not see any solid white upward candles as we’ve seen on the way down. That’s why, may be it short-term scale we have real bullish context, it is not as stable in a bit longer perspective. Unfortunately we do not have clear patterns on daily and will have to wait when they will appear, before taking any position.
4-hour
Here we have only short-term tactical issues, as well. Some signs of market’s exhausting. Action up takes the shape of wedge and if you will apply extensions, you’ll see that we probably could even qualify it as 3-Drive sell. Minimum move up should be below 1335 level. The same signal we have by stop grabber that was formed on Friday. Thus, minimum move down probably will reach 1324-1327 K-support and WPP. Also this level coincides with natural level and previous tops.
Conclusion
CFTC data shows that probably many investors have decided to reduce positions at the eve of important data and FOMC meeting. May be due this reason or may be by some other one, but we do not have any setup that could let us to create more or less extended trading plan for the week. Unfortunately all that we have by far is just a tactical issue that suggests move down to 1325-1330 area. So, guys, decide by yourself, whether you will deal with gold market till 30th of
CFTC data shows that probably many investors have decided to reduce positions at the eve of important data and FOMC meeting. May be due this reason or may be by some other one, but we do not have any setup that could let us to create more or less extended trading plan for the week. Unfortunately all that we have by far is just a tactical issue that suggests move down to 1325-1330 area. So, guys, decide by yourself, whether you will deal with gold market till 30th of
October or not…
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2. Send me your MT4 trading account number and email address
3. Send me your Paypal or Moneybookers account number
If you do not have a Paypal or Moneybookers account,
please click on one of the links below to open your free account today.
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You will be paid $10 per standard lot of Gold traded and
all payments will be made by the 25th of each month.
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YOU SHOULD NOT TAKE ANY MATERIAL posted on this BLOG AS RECOMMENDATIONS
TO BUY OR SELL GOLD OR ANY OTHER INVESTMENT VEHICLE LISTED.
TO BUY OR SELL GOLD OR ANY OTHER INVESTMENT VEHICLE LISTED.
Do your own due diligence.
No one knows tomorrow's price or circumstance.
I intend to portray my thoughts and ideas on the subject which may s be used as a tool for the reader.
I do not accept responsibility for being incorrect in my speculations on market trend.
I intend to portray my thoughts and ideas on the subject which may s be used as a tool for the reader.
I do not accept responsibility for being incorrect in my speculations on market trend.
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