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Thursday, November 7, 2013

Gold Trend Nov 07/2013

Long Term ~ Neutral - need a monthly close above 1800 to confirm the bull market final phase underway
Medium Term ~ Bearish - Need a close above 1381-1431 to neutralize.
Intermediate Term ~ Bullish -- resistance 1372-1387 & 1357-1362
Short Term ~ Neutral – Cycles are mixed --- need a close below 1305 and 1290 for bearish
Support and Resistance
Initial Resistance 1322-1334 and 2nd tier 1343-1353
Initial Support 1301-1312 and 2nd tier 1280-1291

Resistance listed in the last update was 1328-1334 and the high was 1322.
Support was listed at 3101-1312 and the low was 1309.
CME GROUP NEWS
The gold market bounced on Wednesday and in the process the market managed a higher high and a higher low on the charts. Gold prices seemed to benefit from favorable currency market action but most of the gains in the US trade took place well in advance of US scheduled data flows. In retrospect, December gold prices generally saw a steady decline in prices throughout the US trade but the trade may have lost additional ground in the face of slack US mortgage application data and a jump in a private layoff report. In short, gold wasn't seemingly able to gain off weak data that could lower the prospect of a December Fed tapering but gold did seem to benefit from developing weakness in the Dollar. It is also possible that gold prices drafted some fresh support from a recovery in North American gold mining shares and it is also possible that gold has somehow managed to align with the positive action in equities. There are some gold bulls that suggest gold's bounce Wednesday was the result of a realization that US data is simply too weak for the number Friday to be strong enough to put the US Fed in a position to begin tapering in December.

Gold Short Term
Gold has tested 322 on Monday, 321 on Tuesday, and 1322 on Wednesday. We have a Friday low at 1305 and a Tuesday low at 1305.20. Price has been in a tight range all week and the pattern looks like its getting ready to break one way or another. It’s not usually bullish with this type of pattern, but things are so strange at the moment in gold that nothing would surprise me. Until we can close above 1328-1338 or below 1290-1305 the situation is neutral. The bear have a slight advantage but price has got to move to be sure.
If we break this support near 1305 and then 1290 odds favor lower. The key on the short term upside is that area of 1328-1338 going into Thursday. There’s a good band of resistance there and one a 1353.
gold hourly price chart
What's Next? 
We still have a mishmash of neutral-bullish-bearish indications and that’s what usually develops in a sideways trend. Even the short term cycle has a case for either side.
Until we break above or below the dotted trend lines on the daily chart we use for cycles, we’re in neutral mode. Support is at 1305-1310. There’s a minor support at 1291. After that its 1272. Resistance is 1328-1334 on Tuesday. Gold is just sitting in a tight range. Usually this type of action would favor a break lower but a double bottom at 1305 (last Friday and Tuesday) leaves the situation in neutral. 
 

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