Long Term ~ Neutral - need a monthly close above 1800 to confirm the bull market final phase underway
Medium Term ~ Bearish - Need a close above 1341-1404 to neutralize.
Intermediate Term ~ Bearish - resistance 1333-1343
Short Term ~ Bearish – support 1195-1205. June lows at 1180 after that. Short term cycles are due to bottom Dec 3rd (plus or minus 72 hours) and we have the lowest price of cycle -----1215 so far this week. Price trying to hold now near 1222.
Medium Term ~ Bearish - Need a close above 1341-1404 to neutralize.
Intermediate Term ~ Bearish - resistance 1333-1343
Short Term ~ Bearish – support 1195-1205. June lows at 1180 after that. Short term cycles are due to bottom Dec 3rd (plus or minus 72 hours) and we have the lowest price of cycle -----1215 so far this week. Price trying to hold now near 1222.
A close above 1240
takes short term out of bearish to neutral.
Window for cycle still open
until Friday
but we do need to watch for potential low we got at 1215 in DEC contract.
Support and Resistance
Initial Resistance 1231-1241 and 2nd tier 1254-1264
Initial Support 1195-1205 and 2nd tier 1172-1182
Yesterday’s resistance was listed at 1231-1241 and the high was 1225.
Support was listed at 1195-1205 but the low so far was 1215 In Dec Contract --- not February.
CME GROUP NEWS
Gold Short Term
What's Next?
Gold will fight to stay near 1220-1225 but it’s a high task. The ideal day for a short term cycle low is Dec 3rd (plus or minus 72 hours) and we just made the weekly low at 1215. Wednesday will be key and we need to see gold above 1230-1240 to see some evidence that a low is forming. On the downside, 1205-1210 is where we need to hold. If we do that, it could turn into a short term trade into mid month.
Bottom Line
The last two Decembers were very weak ones and we do need to keep in mind the trend is down still. Short term cycles are not in the rotation we’d like to see either as they could invert and we can keep going lower for two weeks. That’s the biggest unknown at the moment. Let’s see what Wednesday morning looks like.
but we do need to watch for potential low we got at 1215 in DEC contract.
Support and Resistance
Initial Resistance 1231-1241 and 2nd tier 1254-1264
Initial Support 1195-1205 and 2nd tier 1172-1182
Yesterday’s resistance was listed at 1231-1241 and the high was 1225.
Support was listed at 1195-1205 but the low so far was 1215 In Dec Contract --- not February.
CME GROUP NEWS
Technically it wasn't a positive day's trade on Tuesday for the gold
bulls. While February gold did manage to reject an initial decline to
new lows for the move, gold wasn't able to definitively throw off the
downward track in prices and gold in the end was barely able to hold
above the potentially critical pivot point of $1,219.20. With somewhat
supportive currency market action, noted weakness in equities and
significant gains at times in crude oil prices on Tuesday, the bull camp
in gold might have expected a bigger rebound in prices, especially if
one grants the declines on Monday to have brought about an overdone
condition on the charts. In the end, seeing favorable US economic news
exert pressure on gold is disconcerting to the bull camp and one also
have to come away from the Tuesday trade with a sense of foreboding as
gold feared tapering from the Fed while the Treasury market actually
signaled a slightly reduced prospect of Fed tapering. (GoldTrends Note:
the good news should be a short lived negative and if we get more good
news this week, we favor some upside).
Going back to Monday, traders sold it down hard based on the assumption
that better ISM data equals sooner Fed tapering equals bad news for
gold. They forget that back in 2011 when gold was peaking at $1900/oz,
the Fed’s balance sheet was at roughly $2.5 trillion, and now it is up
to $3.6 trillion. So having the Fed expand its balance sheet by almost
50% from that 2011 level did not stop gold from falling from $1900 to
$1200 an ounce. Thus, the prospective end of QE from the Fed does not
necessarily have to mean what the crowd thinks it should mean.
as discussed on the last update, price is fighting tooth and nail to try
and remain near the weekly number 1222 and has been able to do it so
far. Now that we are using FEB gold the channel lines had to be
redone. Because of the premiums in futures contracts each contracts
premium shrinks as it gets to lead month and then disappears. Thus the
channel lines are always a bit different. In the case of Feb gold, the
first purple channel line was practically touched at the 1215 low and
may have been close enough for support. Having it come in at the cycle
turn gives it credibility but it is a new contract and the purple trend
line was just put in today and whether it needs a bit of a tweak is
certainly possible. We can say we’re close and a close above 1230-1239
(resistance) where the blue lines are will add a lot more potential that
we have a lot and a bounce into Dec 18th might be underway. The window
doesn’t close until Friday and that means we can’t rule out another low
at 1205-1210 (support) on mid Week Wednesday or even a test of the 2nd
purple line at 1188-1192. We think that the lower price is not in
tomorrow’s score book and if anything the 1205-1210 area would be much
more likely if we are NOT going to start a bounce yet. The bottom line
is we’re in the window for a short term cycle low and price is near key
support. The trend is still down, but let’s goes to the cycle to see
the one concern we have.
What's Next?
Gold will fight to stay near 1220-1225 but it’s a high task. The ideal day for a short term cycle low is Dec 3rd (plus or minus 72 hours) and we just made the weekly low at 1215. Wednesday will be key and we need to see gold above 1230-1240 to see some evidence that a low is forming. On the downside, 1205-1210 is where we need to hold. If we do that, it could turn into a short term trade into mid month.
Bottom Line
The last two Decembers were very weak ones and we do need to keep in mind the trend is down still. Short term cycles are not in the rotation we’d like to see either as they could invert and we can keep going lower for two weeks. That’s the biggest unknown at the moment. Let’s see what Wednesday morning looks like.
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YOU SHOULD NOT TAKE ANY MATERIAL posted on this BLOG AS RECOMMENDATIONS
TO BUY OR SELL GOLD OR ANY OTHER INVESTMENT VEHICLE LISTED.
TO BUY OR SELL GOLD OR ANY OTHER INVESTMENT VEHICLE LISTED.
Do your own due diligence.
No one knows tomorrow's price or circumstance.
I intend to portray my thoughts and ideas on the subject which may s be used as a tool for the reader.
I do not accept responsibility for being incorrect in my speculations on market trend.
I intend to portray my thoughts and ideas on the subject which may s be used as a tool for the reader.
I do not accept responsibility for being incorrect in my speculations on market trend.
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