Saturday, January 4, 2014

Gold Weekly January 06-10, 2014

Trend is still bearish here. Initially we’ve thought that this could become butterfly “buy” pattern, but it also could be “222” Buy, since if we’ve suggested that AB=CD has been completed and W&R really has happened, this could be double bottom. Also take a look, we have solid bullish divergence with MACD. By treating valleys as AB=CD pattern we’ll see that minor extension stands almost right at Yearly Pivot Point, and 1.618 extension stands slightly higher than Yearly PR1. This is really interesting agreement. Weekly chart points that we should search possibility for long entry. Odds suggest that after AB=CD completion market usually shows at minimum 3/8 retracement, and on the weekly chart this will be not small move. This, of cause, makes sense only if W&R of 1180 lows really has happened. If we will be wrong with this suggestion then we will get the trap that we’ve discussed previously.

Let’s suggest that market still has touched daily targets. Now market stands above WPP and WPR1, trend holds bullish here. In this case we need to search possibility enter long. Next destination point is 1250 Fib resistance accompanied by MPR1 and daily overbought. In general, we could get reversed H&S pattern here that should lead market at minimum to 1280-1293 K-resistance area, but this is a bit extended view. So, if we will be lucky we will get chance to take long position prior 1250, if not – then we will need to wait bounce off the 1250 resistance to take position.

On 4-hour chart we probably have smaller Double Bottom pattern, since W&R stands also for recent intraday lows as well. Target of this pattern is the same – 1250 level. Trend is bullish here.

Hourly chart shows that retracement down still could possible prior reaching of 1250 area. Thus, here we have wedge pattern accompanied by divergence and Tweezer tops pattern. This pattern is not as strong as, say, engulfing pattern, but still, it has reversal quality. Depending on how this retracement will develop, I hope we will understand whether this was real reversal up or not yet. At first glance 1218 level looks acceptable, since this is combination of Fib support and neck line of 4-hour Double Bottom pattern.

Currently we still have suspicions concerning reality of reversal, although we have to appoint that upward action looks really nice. We still will try to rely on COMEX Data and treat this move as reversal. In long term perspective market could hit as Yearly PP as PR1 that stands in agreement with gold’s habit and weekly AB=CD pattern. After retracement will be completed we can’t exclude another leg down, since in 2013 we’ve got volatility breakout. And, as a rule, VOB leads to 2-leg action.
In short-term perspective upward action has 1250 target. If market will show retracement down before it will hit 1250, we will try to take long position. At first glance 1218 level looks suitable.
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