Sunday, February 2, 2014

Gold Trend Feb 03/2014

Follow The XM Bull
 Long Term ~ Neutral - need a monthly close above 1800 to confirm the bull market final phase underway
Medium Term ~ Bearish - Need a close above 1301-1340 to neutralize
Intermediate Term ~ Bullish/NEUTRAL – 1272 DID NOT GET TAKEN OUT ON THE CLOSE yet and thus intermediate term did not go full bullish.  Trend decision due by Monday or sooner.
Short Term ~ BULLISH –   we need a close above 1272 to keep uptrend going.  We must hold 1222 on a closing basis otherwise we fall out of the channel on the hourly
Initial Resistance 1253-1263 2nd tier 1272-1282
Initial Support 1222-1235 and 2nd tier 1208-1214

Gold Short Term
The PRICE PATTERN IS OVERLAPPING and while not too choppy, it still has some characteristics of counter trend.  We could test the lower channel and lower mini blue line on Monday.  That will need to be support.  I will allow up to 1222 because of weekly reversal price point of importance.
Support is 1222-1232 at the blue mini channel line and maybe 1237.  We believe we are on the verge of a MOVE THAT IS ABOUT TO DEVELOP at some point on Monday or Tuesday morning.  At this point either way can still go.  We either support here at 1240 area and mini blue line or that one level lower.  A close below 1222 favors the downside.  A close above 1255 IS FIRST SPOT we need to overcome for a chance at the upside.  That lower trend channel and lower mini blue line is the last solid line.  We should see support there on Monday or 1222.
 What Next?
Monday is the last day of the window for the last cycle and a new one begins.  Its possible its already underway lower but if we can bottom here then the upside can still be in play.  It will be important for the emerging markets to bounce this week also as we are at 2010 and 2012 support points on some of the charts.  Perhaps they bounce this week.
Bottom Line
The next two weeks should be decided by Monday’s close and Tuesday’s action.  A close below 1222 turns the odds to lower and a close above 1255 is 1st closing reversal we need to see for the upside getting the choice.
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