Follow The XM Bull
Long Term ~ Neutral - need a monthly close above 1800 to confirm the bull market final phase underway
Medium Term ~ Bearish - Need a close above 1293-1333 to neutralize
Intermediate Term ~ Bullish/NEUTRAL – 1272 DID NOT GET TAKEN OUT ON THE CLOSE yet and thus intermediate term did not go full bullish.
Short Term ~ BULLISH – we need a close above 1272 to keep uptrend going. We must hold 1222 on a closing basis otherwise the trend goes to neutral/bearish.
Initial Resistance 1262-1272 2nd tier 1284-1294
Initial Support 1243-1253 and 2nd tier 1222-1232
Last update listed 1262-1272 as resistance and the high was 1267.
Support was listed at 1243--1253 and the low was 1252.50.
NOTE: Of historical significance – it was 50 years ago today that the Beatles landed in New York. On Sunday night it will be 50 years since the first Ed Sullivan Show. The lowest crime statistics ever recorded on an hourly basis in USA still stand today for that one hour. No wonder---everyone was home watching.
Overview
We discussed last night that the stock market was due for a bounce at
the end of the report in the “What Next” portion of the report and it
delivered on Thursday with a 188 point rise. The other factor is that
our 10 year interest rate watch on the weekly update reached the medium
term moving averages on Tuesday reaching the 2.5-2.6 area and bonds
dropped on Thursday keeping the rates above the medium term moving
averages.
Interest rates have either bottomed and will now move higher or this
will just be a bounce that will lead to a low in early March. For now
expect the 10 year to hold 2.5-2.6 going into mid next week and then
we’ll see.
As for the stock market, here’s the deal. You’ve all heard of the
January barometer. Historically, if we now make a new low in February
beyond this week, then odds favor a down year. If we avoid a new low
from here, then the stock market can come roaring back. But make no
mistake, we remain at the biggest long term resistance in the stock
market (see SPY chart on the weekly update) where we have the crossing
of two very long term lines and price touching both in December. The
weekly update has discussed the potential for up to a 3 to 5 month
correction since early December. For now, any NEW LOW next week in the
stock market will add to that potential. If we hold the lows of this
week, then expect a bounce back up to test resistance in the 1770-1800
area.
Gold once again made a bid for a breakout and this time reached 1267.50
before it was once again knocked down to our key number we discussed at
the beginning of the week (1255) Price meandered all around that number
once again all day long. The rumor is a lot of buy stops will be
triggered above 1270-1280 and thus the longer it keeps getting knocked
down in such a fashion the more believable it becomes.
Perhaps the most bullish aspect of gold is the chart below where you can
see the tremendous drawdown in registered gold at the COMEX and at the
moment there is only 1 ounce of gold in inventory for every 85 ounces
long in the market. It was almost 120 before the February contract
rollover into April. This alone does not mean that there will be a
default at the COMEX but it does highlight the tight supply of gold at
the moment. Certainly a lot more ounces could be made available at any
time but still, this is a very low inventory of which the likes have not
been seen for at least the last 10 years. It’s something to keep watch
on. Rumors are that JPM has been snapping up the inventory.
On Friday we start with the NFP PAYROLL report. While we don’t know
what the outcome will be (who does anymore) there are two things to
consider.
Tomorrow is bench mark revisions for last year in employment, which of course impacts last month’s number and tomorrow’s number.
And then there’s this; 9 of the last 10 January’s have seen negative
surprises. That in itself does not mean we won’t have a good number and
if the GOONS have any say in the matter, they could tweak that number
to the moon if they so choose. The price of gold and its outcome most
likely rests on the number. A bad number and gold should spike up. A
good one could send it plummeting to earth as the FINAL DAY OF THE
CHINESE New Year and a closed physical market is upon us. The fact that
the control boyz were not able to sell off gold will become a HUGE PLUS
---- next week. If we get by Monday/Tuesday without a selloff in gold
it will yield a second clue that the low in gold from December should
hold and that a July/August type of rally is still unfolding.
Gold Short Term
Last night’s quote --- “It’s still going to take a close above 1267-1272
to favor higher” remains in play as we enter Friday. (Note the
Thursday high was 1267.50undefinedright at this price point listed
above). Resistance remains tough in the 1275-1280 if we get above
1285-1295 there then the potential to move towards 1322-1333 will be
favored.
Support is 1243-1253 and then 1220-1230. It looks like the NFP report
on Friday is going to be the price mover of the week. At this point
either way can still go due to the simple fact that someone doesn’t want
gold above 1272 on a closing basis. That has been our key weekly
number to close above for a few weeks and we have yet to see it. Look
at the spikes on the chart that keep getting resisted at 1267-1272.
Also look at the price action at 1255. We’ve been there all week.
Support is the 1245-1255 area and then 1228-1235 and the key support
1220-1222. As we enter Friday we remain in the up channel that began on
Dec 31st/Jan 2nd and the short term trend remains up. Any close below
1222 and the situation reverses. Get ready for Friday and the NFP as
there’s usually a price spike.
What Next?
China is closed this week so be careful--- as we are on the last day. We’ve got to get beyond this 1255 area and we’ve been there since the Monday close. Also the NFP payroll report is out on Friday.
Bottom Line
The bottom line is someone is not allowing gold to close above 1275-1280. If gold were to close above 1272 on Friday it would favor 1322-1333.
IT COMES DOWN TO THE NFP ON FRIDAY and what the control boyz decide to do if anything before China returns next week.
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Keep Calm & Follow The Bull
China is closed this week so be careful--- as we are on the last day. We’ve got to get beyond this 1255 area and we’ve been there since the Monday close. Also the NFP payroll report is out on Friday.
Bottom Line
The bottom line is someone is not allowing gold to close above 1275-1280. If gold were to close above 1272 on Friday it would favor 1322-1333.
IT COMES DOWN TO THE NFP ON FRIDAY and what the control boyz decide to do if anything before China returns next week.
$20 FREE TO PARTICIPATE IN THE XM CONTEST ARENA
Open Real Account
Go to the XM Contest Arena
Register a Nickname and get $20 Free
-> http://tinyurl.com/q72y3uf
All Profits Withdrawable
Free $20 Credit Added Automatically
Non Stop Contests to Join
Open a Real Account (you can use your existing account if you already have one)
Login to the XM Members Area
Register your unique Nickname and password
Enter the Contest Arena
$500,000 IN CASH PRIZES WAIT FOR YOU
-> http://tinyurl.com/q72y3uf
Keep Calm & Follow The Bull
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YOU SHOULD NOT TAKE ANY MATERIAL posted on this BLOG AS RECOMMENDATIONS
TO BUY OR SELL GOLD OR ANY OTHER INVESTMENT VEHICLE LISTED.
TO BUY OR SELL GOLD OR ANY OTHER INVESTMENT VEHICLE LISTED.
Do your own due diligence.
No one knows tomorrow's price or circumstance.
I intend to portray my thoughts and ideas on the subject which may s be used as a tool for the reader.
I do not accept responsibility for being incorrect in my speculations on market trend.
I intend to portray my thoughts and ideas on the subject which may s be used as a tool for the reader.
I do not accept responsibility for being incorrect in my speculations on market trend.
King Regards
