Follow The XM Bull
Long Term ~ Neutral - need a monthly close above 1800 to confirm the bull market final phase underway
Medium Term ~ Bearish - Need a close above 1293-1333 to neutralize
Intermediate Term ~ Bullish – 1272 GOT TAKEN OUT ON THE CLOSE but
we need the FRIDAY CLOSE ABOVE THERE ALSO.
Short Term ~ BULLISH – we need a close above 1272 to keep uptrend going.
We must hold 1222 on a closing basis otherwise the trend goes to neutral/bearish.
Medium Term ~ Bearish - Need a close above 1293-1333 to neutralize
Intermediate Term ~ Bullish – 1272 GOT TAKEN OUT ON THE CLOSE but
we need the FRIDAY CLOSE ABOVE THERE ALSO.
Short Term ~ BULLISH – we need a close above 1272 to keep uptrend going.
We must hold 1222 on a closing basis otherwise the trend goes to neutral/bearish.
Initial Resistance 1287-1297 2nd tier 1313-1323
Initial Support 1243-1253 and 2nd tier 1222-1232
Last update listed 1262-1272 as resistance and the high was 1277.
Support was listed at 1243--1253 and the low was 1265.50.
Overview
What Next?
China returns and Yellen testimony is on Tuesday.
Bottom Line
The bottom line is favored 1287-1297 on Tuesday.
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Initial Support 1243-1253 and 2nd tier 1222-1232
Last update listed 1262-1272 as resistance and the high was 1277.
Support was listed at 1243--1253 and the low was 1265.50.
Overview
It all comes down to Yellen testimony on Tuesday. Or at least that is
the most important thing. If she says one wrong word --- yes, gold can
take off. But these things in the past have led to gold being contained
or even weakness. While it can be different, we still have to keep it
in mind.
The Quiet before Yellen's Storm? S&P Unable To Breach 1800 Resistance
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 02/10/2014 - 16:09
US equity markets traded in a narrow range ahead of tomorrow's Yellen
testimony with Trannies underperforming and Nasdaq outperforming.
Cross-asset-class correlations picked up from their negligible levels on
Friday as JPY (and increasingly 5Y bonds) are linked at the hip with
stocks. The S&P cash tested almost up to 1,800 (but failed at
1799.94) then faded. Notably from the European close, equity handily
outperformed credit markets - which ended closing near their widest of
the day. Treasuries ended the day modestly bid (30y -2bps) but T-Bill
yields are starting to reflect debt-ceiling concerns. The USD closed
unch - drifting lower from overnight strength - but gold and silver
rallied on the day (though faded of early highs). Late-day ramp efforts
got the S&P green but failed to cross 1,800... and VIX decoupled on
the ramp.
However if you have been following the Ukraine thing --- it is
turning into a very serious situation between Russia – and Europe/USA.
Once the Olympics are done odds favor the cycles of War are going to
escalate. Gold HAS REACHED 1st TARGET RESISTANCE --- at the hourly
trend line. Thus 1287-1297 could be a peak for this week. The 2nd
target now looks to be the 1313-1322 area. I don’t know which will be
the one. I can only say that these two zones are the most likely price
points for this week. The short term cycle window also is now open as
Feb 14th (plus or minus 72 hours) is in play. I don’t like how silver
is acting as it can’t get above 20.30 so far --- so it too has reached
1st target zone as we hit 20.27 today.
The odds are 70% that we peak this week and pull back into month’s
end. There’s a 30% chance that we invert and move higher to month’s
end, but the odds are smaller of course. IF we do get an inversion ---
we favor 1322-1333 as initial target.
One thing I forgot to mention on the signals page. The high tonight
is only a dollar away from the 34 week moving average. We should see
some resistance forming near here---at least initially. That’s the
odds. Nothing is guaranteed.
There It Is: Obamacare Employer Mandate Delayed For Companies With Under 100 Employees
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 02/10/2014 - 16:21
Just as we predicted it would happen, here it comes:
• OBAMACARE EMPLOYER MANDATE TO BE DELAYED FOR SOME COMPANIES
Specifically, according Bloomberg, businesses with 50-99 workers have
until 2016 before being penalized for not providing health-care
coverage to full-time workers, according to final regulations released
by Treasury.
Will Austrian Bank Woes Be Again the Catalyst For A European Kondratieff Winter?
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 02/10/2014 - 15:07
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 02/10/2014 - 15:07
Sad affairs have been heating up in the tiny Alpine republic in the
center of the European Union. While Austria experiences record
unemployment at record growth rates and tax revenues have fallen behind
optimistic projections, the looming bankruptcy of a mid-sized regional
bank, Hypo Group Alpe Adria (HGAA), may propel the country to the
disdained position of being the catalyst for a new round of bank
failures due to interwoven banks risks on both the domestic and the
international level. On Monday Austrian financial market authority FMA
publicly said what the official Austria never wanted to hear as it is
now confronted with a widening public discussion on a problem it had
surrealistically hoped to brush under the carpet. Austria's banking woes
look eerily similar to the failure of Creditanstalt in 1931 that was
the fuse for the last European Kondratieff winter.
As China Orders Its Smaller Banks To Load Up On Cash, Is The Biggest Ever "Unlimited QE" About To Be Unleashed?
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 02/10/2014 - 11:46
The Chinese new year may be over which following a last minute bailout
of its insolvent Credit Equals Gold Trust product was largely
uneventful, but already concerns about domestic liquidity are once again
rising to the surface following reports that China’s banking regulator
ordered some of the nation’s smaller lenders to set aside more funds to
avoid a cash shortfall, which as Bloomberg notes signal rising concern
that defaults may climb. Which brings us to the question du jour: is the
PBOC is laying the groundwork for what developed markets would call an
open-ended liquidity injection which can be use to bail out one and all
banks on an a la carte basis. Or, in the parlance of our times, the
biggest QE bazooka of all because with total banking assets of nearly
$25 trillion, said bazooka better be ready to fire at a moment's notice?
GOLD
Gold has risen 6 of the last 7 days, breaking back over $1,275 and
closing at three-month highs as the last 3 days have seen stocks and
precious metals bid. Silver is on a 7-day win streak holding above $20
for the last 3 days. Despite fading back from highs today, gold
outperformed stocks and bonds (on a flat USD day) and gold remains the
best-performing asset (+3.75%) from the December Taper.
Gold Short Term
Support is 1238-1248 and 1255 and resistance 1287-1297 as the upper
channel line now has price in its critical test o it. We have reached
first weekly resistance by hitting that blue channel line zone. That’s
our resistance for Tuesday. If gold busts above than the 1322-1333
area comes into play.
We got our 1272 close but that needs to be a Friday close above.
As long as we can hold the channel the upside still has potential to
reach the upper channel line again. Support on a CLOSING basis is first
at 1248-1255 this week and at 12628-1238. The hourly chart lists
resistance at 1292-1302. You can see how many spikes have hit near
1270-1275 and that is really the key to the coming week --- is we need
to close above. e targets laid out earlier in the update.
What Next?
China returns and Yellen testimony is on Tuesday.
Bottom Line
The bottom line is favored 1287-1297 on Tuesday.
$20 FREE TO PARTICIPATE IN THE XM CONTEST ARENA
Open Real Account
Go to the XM Contest Arena
Register a Nickname and get $20 Free
-> http://tinyurl.com/q72y3uf
All Profits Withdrawable
Free $20 Credit Added Automatically
Non Stop Contests to Join
Open a Real Account (you can use your existing account if you already have one)
Login to the XM Members Area
Register your unique Nickname and password
Enter the Contest Arena
$500,000 IN CASH PRIZES WAIT FOR YOU
-> http://tinyurl.com/q72y3uf
Keep Calm & Follow The Bull
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YOU SHOULD NOT TAKE ANY MATERIAL posted on this BLOG AS RECOMMENDATIONS
TO BUY OR SELL GOLD OR ANY OTHER INVESTMENT VEHICLE LISTED.
TO BUY OR SELL GOLD OR ANY OTHER INVESTMENT VEHICLE LISTED.
Do your own due diligence.
No one knows tomorrow's price or circumstance.
I intend to portray my thoughts and ideas on the subject which may s be used as a tool for the reader.
I do not accept responsibility for being incorrect in my speculations on market trend.
I intend to portray my thoughts and ideas on the subject which may s be used as a tool for the reader.
I do not accept responsibility for being incorrect in my speculations on market trend.
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