Long Term ~ Neutral - need a monthly close above 1800 to confirm the bull market final phase underway
Medium Term ~ Bearish - Need a close above 1293-1333 to neutralize
Intermediate Term ~ Bullish – 1272 GOT TAKEN OUT ON THE CLOSE but we need the FRIDAY CLOSE ABOVE THERE ALSO.
Short Term ~ BULLISH – we need a close above 1272 to keep uptrend going.
Medium Term ~ Bearish - Need a close above 1293-1333 to neutralize
Intermediate Term ~ Bullish – 1272 GOT TAKEN OUT ON THE CLOSE but we need the FRIDAY CLOSE ABOVE THERE ALSO.
Short Term ~ BULLISH – we need a close above 1272 to keep uptrend going.
We must hold 1222 on a closing basis otherwise the trend goes to
neutral/bearish.
Initial Resistance 1292-1302 2nd tier 1313-1323
Initial Support 1263-1273 and 2nd tier 1245-1255
Last update listed 1287-1297 as resistance and the high was 1294.
Support was listed at 1243--1253 and the low was 1273.
It was impressive that gold could rally while stocks ran up almost 200
points. Gold prices ended the U.S. day session with good gains and hit a
more-than-three-month high Tuesday. The market was boosted by the
increasingly bullish near-term technical posture of gold, and by
non-threatening comments made by Fed chief Janet Yellen. April gold was
last up $15.80 at $1,290.40 an ounce. Spot gold was last quoted up
$15.40 at $1291.00. March Comex silver last traded up $0.068 at $20.18
an ounce.
The highlight during U.S. trading hours Tuesday was Yellen’s inaugural
testimony on monetary policy to the Congress. Traders and investors
examined closely her morning remarks and prepared text. The market
place’s “take-away” from Yellen’s comments was that she appears to be
following closely in the footsteps of former Fed chairman Ben Bernanke,
which is not surprising and does favor the dovish monetary policy camp.
Yellens remarks were deemed a bit friendly for the gold market and other
raw commodity markets Tuesday, even though it was not breaking news.
News reports overnight said demand for physical gold from China is on the rise, following that country’s Lunar New Year holiday.
The London P.M. gold fix is $1,282.00 versus the P.M. fixing of $1,277.00.
Technically, April gold futures prices closed nearer the session high
and hit a more-than three-month high Tuesday. A six-week-old uptrend is
in place on the daily bar chart. Bulls are gaining good upside near-term
technical momentum and are now on a level near-term technical playing
field with the bullsundefinedfor the first time in months. The gold
bulls’ next upside near-term price breakout objective is to produce a
close above solid technical resistance at $1,300.00. Bears' next
near-term downside breakout price objective is closing prices below
solid technical support at $1,250.00. First resistance is seen at
Tuesday’s high of $1,294.40 and then at $1,300.00. First support is seen
at $1,280.00 and then at Tuesday’s low of $1,273.50. Wyckoff’s Market
Rating: 5.0
The House of Representatives voted to suspend the U.S. debt limit
until March 2015, giving a win to President Barack Obama and Democrats
in Congress who insisted that the ceiling be lifted without conditions.
China’s exports exceeded estimates in January while import growth
unexpectedly accelerated, defying signs the world’s second-largest
economy is losing momentum amid efforts to tame credit.
Gold Short Term
Gold reached 1294 and just a bit shy of the 2nd blue line which is not
at 1302. This is definitely a spot where a short term peak can take
place. But its also near where a lot of short positions would get
nervous should price get much higher. The other side of course is that a
lot of players who were on the sidelines all of a sudden are interested
and wondering if they should buy the breakout? The 1st target for the
week has been met and resistance should be high in this area. What we
have to watch out for is if the shorts run for cover and at the same
time a lot of folks have been on the sideline and they are now getting
antsy to get in. IF we get another up day it will make it even worse for
both sides. The chart has tested 34 hour moving average and now we
find out if re get back above the channel line or not. It’s possible
that a pullback is underway. (See next chart short term cycles).
Support on a CLOSING basis is first at 1248-1255. Resistance is 1292-1302 and then 1313-1323. Everything was up on Tuesday.
What Next?
The trend accelerated past some channel line in gold stocks and everyone piled on. A breakout above 1270 has a lot of players now wanting to get in worried they might miss the ride. Mid Week Wednesday is here ----- do we make the high for the week or pullback into Thursday? Resistance will be 1292-1302 on Wednesday and support 1263-1273 and then 1255.
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TO BUY OR SELL GOLD OR ANY OTHER INVESTMENT VEHICLE LISTED.
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Do your own due diligence.
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I intend to portray my thoughts and ideas on the subject which may s be used as a tool for the reader.
I do not accept responsibility for being incorrect in my speculations on market trend.
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I do not accept responsibility for being incorrect in my speculations on market trend.
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