Thursday, February 13, 2014

Gold Trend Feb 13/2014

Follow The XM Bull
Long Term ~ Neutral - Need a monthly close above 1800 to confirm the bull market final phase underway
Medium Term ~ Bearish - Need a close above 1293-1333 to neutralize
Intermediate Term ~ Bullish – 1272 GOT TAKEN OUT ON THE CLOSE but we need the FRIDAY CLOSE ABOVE THERE ALSO.
Short Term ~ BULLISH –   We need a close above 1272 to keep uptrend going.  
We must hold 1222 on a closing basis otherwise the trend goes to neutral/bearish.
Initial Resistance 1292-1302 2nd tier 1313-1323
Initial Support 1263-1273 and 2nd tier 1245-1255

Last update listed 1292-1302 as resistance and the high was 1297.  
Support was listed at 1263--1273 and the low was 1293.

Yesterday the gold stocks broke out over trend lines over a year old and carried gold higher today.

The next phase of the cycle is underway and it’s not going to be a pretty one.  The beginnings of the sentiment change from positive to negative begins with civil unrest.
It starts with Government------------and the bankruptcy of the nations. When we get to this level the government begins to turn on its own in search for even more money.
Corruption in Government is Massive Worldwide

The Collapse of Socialism Driven by Political Corruption
The rise is Civil Unrest is precisely on time and it is being driven by economic decline in the standard of living.  The G20 is combining forces and linking computers in order to come after all possible tax collections.  This is what happens when we get this deep in total debt.
Unemployed Youth Exceed 200 million

Riots in Spain Turning Massively Violent

Thailand of the Verge of State of Emergency

Riots Again in Brazil

Anti-Government Uprising over Unemployment Rises in Bosnia

American Tanks Returning to Europe

The most unlikely place to see tensions rising just made the list – Australian v Indonesia. The real issue has been economics and trying to prevent the boat people from entering Australia. Australian warships have crossed into Indonesian waters and this has led to tensions rising with Indonesia now increasing its patrols against Australia. While war is unlikely, this simply illustrates the rising tensions everywhere. The main clash between the two will be sparked by religion – Islam v Christianity. But the real root cause is always economics.

And then the flashpoint

Ukraine – Becoming the Real Focal Point

Posted by Martin Armstrong

Ambassador Michael McFaul to Russia has Resigned, not merely from his post, but from the Obama Administration. McFaul was never popular in Russia and was often accused of trying to stir a revolution there. But the word around is that he is getting out and does not like the turn of events.

Besides the US sending tanks back to Europe, the USA is now opening the pipes and starting to supply Europe with oil. There is deep concern about rising tensions with Russia and you have to look between the lines to see the patterns forming with strategic movements one step at a time. The USA is also accusing Russia of not reducing missiles according to the treaty – another sign of rising tensions.

The rise in anti-government protests in Ukraine have been going on for weeks. What people do not appreciate is that there were attempts to do the same thing in Russia, but the people were arrested and that put an end to that. Some still talk about it on Facebook. In Russia they are portraying the rise of Neo-Nazi politics in Ukraine. This is once again part of the stage performance that both sides play up to justify whatever actions they need to take. At the very best, Ukraine would split in half East v West. That is truly the best possible outcome – but somehow it seems that the worst course is always preferred by mankind in general.

Meanwhile, the US and EU officials are now pushing for a Ukrainian aid package in hopes of putting pressure to prevent Russia taking the country. But there seems to be a building trend over Ukraine and Russia can easily justify the fact that the East was once part of Russia and that the people there even speak Russian – not Ukrainian. This seems to be the focal point that is building. With the Cycle of War turning up here in 2014, this can easily become a very serious issue. Everything is starting to move it seems in preparation.
For the first time ever, the majority of Americans are scared of their own federal government. A Pew Research poll found that 53% of Americans think the government threatens their personal rights and freedoms. Americans aren't wild about the government's currency either. Instead of holding dollars and other financial assets, investors are storing wealth in art, wine, and antique cars. The Economist reported in November, "This buying binge… is growing distrust of financial assets." Every central banker on earth has sworn an oath to Keynesian money creation, yet the yellow metal has retraced nearly $700 from its $1,895 high. The only limits to fiat money creation are the imagination of central bankers and the willingness of commercial bankers to lend. That being the case, the main culprit for gold's lackluster performance over the past two years is something else... It won't be inflation that drives up the gold price but the unwinding of massive amounts of leverage.

Gold Short Term
Price has moved and broken short term resistance,  then it reached intermediate term and broke thru that and now finally we have arrived at medium term resistance and into the upper range.

Gold reached 1297 in its 2nd attempt to forge support for the 2nd resistance line in the channel just above 1300. and just a bit shy of the 2nd blue line which is not at 1302.This is definitely a spot where a short term peak can take place. But its also near where a lot of short positions are worried and a lot of traders/investors on the sidelines are getting worried about missing getting on board.

Major bottoms always have a lot of false starts where everyone piles on and the prices reverse back down and stops everyone out.  And it keeps on doing it until there is no one or hardly anyone willing to get on board and take another loss.  And that is when the market turns and finally breaks out.  The other side of course is that a lot of players who were on the sidelines all of a sudden are interested and wondering if they should buy the breakout? 

Often the market will run until the traders give in an re-enter.  And then bam --- the first correction in quite a while begins.  The most important aspect is that price is at the medium term moving averages 1289-1319.

The 1st target for the week has been met and resistance should be high odds in this area.  With the 200 day at 1313 odds favor we don’t go any higher that as the highest we should expect.   Even 1302-1310 should be tough.
Support on a CLOSING basis is first at 1248-1255 and 1261-1271. Resistance is 1292-1302 and then 1313-1323. Everything was up on Tuesday.
What Next? 
 The trend accelerated past some channel line in gold stocks and everyone piled on.  A breakout above 1270 has a lot of players now wanting to get in worried they might miss the ride.  Mid Week Wednesday is here --- do we make the high for the week or pullback into Thursday?    Resistance will be 1292-1302 on Wednesday and support 1263-1273 and then 1255.

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