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Monthly
Although on previous week we’ve noted that price has moved above YPP and shifted trend to bullish , but also we said that this could shift to bearish stop grabber and that it is too early to be fascinating with bullish
break. Now we have the picture how it could look like by the end of the
month. At the same time let’s not to give dramatic turn to this event.
All that I would like to point is that nothing is done yet here. Of
cause turning down from YPP can’t treated as positive sign, but this is
normal – respect and react on reaching solid resistance .
Besides, market has not shown too extended downward action, so it is
too early to fall in histeric on possible downward reversal. Yes, this could be bearish grabber, but it could fail as well, right? Taking into consideration all issues that we have now on gold market – I would not rush with reversal conclusions and treat current move down as retracement by far. Another interesting moment here is that market has not reached neckline of potential Double Bottom pattern and has not reached AB=CD upward target around 1430. The question what will it be – another gold’s trick and pitfall? When traders will take shorts - will market make another leg up to neckline before following retracement? If not, then market should not show too deep retracement right now. If gold is really bullish , and it stands above 0.618 target already – there is no reasons for too extended retracement to downside.
Long term upside target stands around yearly PR1. We know that gold likes to re-test previously broken lows and consolidations. 1540 area is monthly overbought, YPR1 and low border of broken long-term rectangle. As market was strongly oversold, very often it has tendency to reach overbought. Market is a impulse substance and reaction equals to counter reacion.
So our long-term analysis is the same. As another application of significantly oversold we’ve suggested retracement up. Thus, we’ve made an assumption of possible deeper upward retracement that could take a shape of AB=CD, and invalidation for this setup is previous lows around 1170s. Market right now is forming something like double bottom.
That’s being said – nearest target here is 1430 resistance level, while taking in consideration golds’ habits, geopolitical tension and technical issues, now we treat probability of reaching 1540 level as very high. In nearest future we have to keep close eye on current retracement down.
Weekly
Trend is bullish here, market is not at overbought. Here you can clearer
see that market stands between 1.0 and 0.618 AB=CD targets. In such
situations price should not show too deep move down, if gold is really
bullish. Now price has formed huge bearish engulfing pattern and it
could become reason for DiNapoli directional pattern here. We’ve said
the same on previous week – nice thrust up, if any retracement will
happen we could get DiNapoli “B&B” buy setup. That’s the pattern
that we will be watching for in nearest 1-2 weeks here. At the same time
this expectation absolutely does not forbid us to trade market short on
lower time frames and based on engulfing pattern. 
Daily
Here I’ve drawn many lines… I just want to show you “golden cross” that
we’ve mentioned in fundamental part of research – crossing of 50-day and
200-day MA. Blue line is oversold one, this is not MA… So, we have
initial solid plunge down and market has reached first 1330 Fib support.
As market has not tested MPP yet, we assess the chance of reaching it
as significant. And, in general 1300 area is very strong support –
oversold, K-support and MPP. So, probably this will be our short-term
target of possible retracement down and… - primary area where we will
watch for bullish reversal patterns to step into B&B “Buy” on weekly
chart, right?Now we should monitor possible upward bounce for taking short position. Also, guys, retracement even to MPS1 at 1260 area will be acceptable and will not break bullish trend, since we know – until market stands above MPS1 – long term bullish trend is valid. Usually PS1 has to hold retracement within bullish trend and it works like some type of indicator of trend’s validation. But the moment of truth will happen earlier probably. If market is really bullish, then it should use weekly B&B to re-establish upward action…
4-hour
Here trend has turned bullish. We didn’t get B&B “Sell” as we’ve
discussed on previous week, but chances on DiNapoli directional pattern
still exist. Thus, this could be DRPO “Buy” that could bring market
right to K-resistance area and WPP. This could be very nice area for
taking short position. 
Conclusion
Since gold market stands in strong geopolitical and fundamental storm –
price is flirting with very significant crucial level of YPP that
potentially could lead to appearing of drastical moments. Thus, while
situation on long-term charts needs to be more clarified, we will focus
on lower time frames.Our medium-term trading plan suggests taking long position and first area where we could get the chance to do it stands around 1300. Our reason for this is potential B&B “Buy” on weekly chart.
Meantime, as we have permission to trade on daily charts as well, we will try to take short position on daily that should lead us right to 1300. If market will show retracement on Monday-Tuesday and will reach 1350 area – we could get chance to take it…
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XM operates its financial services with full European Union authorization (including BaFin, AFM, FI, FIN, and CNMV) and by following a best execution policy for executing trading orders in real time.
XM is the next-generation broker for online forex and commodity trading, offering a wide array of progressive features for trading forex, precious metals, stock indices, and energies. What makes XM outstanding is that there are no re-quotes or rejections of trading orders, no hidden fees or commissions, and 99.35% of orders get executed in less than 1 second.
The 888:1 leverage offered by XM is unique in the industry. Over 60 currency pairs and over 100 financial instruments can be traded both online and by phone on 7 advanced trading platforms. Besides, there are no upper limits to deposits.
Beginner and seasoned traders can equally benefit from superior services and from exactly the same trading conditions, whether they open a real or a demo account. Registration is currently available in 17 languages, and trading can be started with a min. deposit of USD5 on multiple forex accounts, or on non-expiring demo accounts funded with USD100,000 virtual currency. Clients can benefit from tight spreads as low as 1 pip on the major currency pairs.
Clients can choose from three forex account types with custom-tailored conditions and base currency options for USD, EUR, GBP, JPY, CHF, AUD: MICRO account (1 micro lot = 1,000 units of the base currency), STANDARD account (1 standard lot is 100,000 units of the base currency), and EXECUTIVE account (1 standard lot is 100,000 unites of the base currency).
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The Gold Price & Trend Predictions blog made for gold traders to find good news and to provide the traders with daily price predictions and to learn how to trade the Forex Market for free.Just pure learning! It will be of great fun.You can judge by yourself the quality of information that I will be giving you in my blog.
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YOU SHOULD NOT TAKE ANY MATERIAL posted on this BLOG AS RECOMMENDATIONS
TO BUY OR SELL GOLD OR ANY OTHER INVESTMENT VEHICLE LISTED.
TO BUY OR SELL GOLD OR ANY OTHER INVESTMENT VEHICLE LISTED.
Do your own due diligence.
No one knows tomorrow's price or circumstance.
I intend to portray my thoughts and ideas on the subject which may s be used as a tool for the reader.
I do not accept responsibility for being incorrect in my speculations on market trend.
I intend to portray my thoughts and ideas on the subject which may s be used as a tool for the reader.
I do not accept responsibility for being incorrect in my speculations on market trend.
King Regards
