Wednesday, April 2, 2014

Gold Daily April 3, 2014

Long Term ~ Neutral - Need a monthly close above 1800 to confirm the bull market final phase underway.
Medium Term ~ Neutral – Trend is now neutral after one year in bearish mode. A close above 1420-1480 needed for next significant price point--but a March close above 1322 GETS ONE MORE NOTCH to bullish.
Intermediate Term ~ Neutral– A close above 1355 needed for more bullish action. We are at the end of the short term cycle window. A close below 1262-1272 puts us bearish.
Short Term ~ Bearish but NEUTRAL on close above 1300 – The Next short term cycle window is closed and the next cycle is underway into mid month. Odds favor we made the LOW in short term time and price wise but the weakness in gold is very troublesome and the medium term cycle window is still in play until April 10th. A close above 1308 would put us neutral.

Initial Resistance 1293-1303 2nd tier 1315-1322
Initial Support 1279-1289 and 2nd tier 1265-1272

NOTE – expect perhaps resistance at 1293-1295 ---- we have to get above there before 1299-1309 resistance comes in play.

Resistance was listed at 1293-1303 on the last update and the high was 1295. 
Support was listed at 1272-1282 and the low was 1279.

Precious Metals rose on Wednesday despite a positive jobs report. Rising metal prices might be attributed to Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen’s statement on Monday that the FED was into quantitative easing (QE) for the long haul, but the oversold condition, the support lines on the technical charts and the short term cycle turn are also factors worth consideration.

The loose monetary policy has not been restricted to the U.S., as the European Union has offered QE initiatives over the past several years. Christine Lagarde, President of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), is asking the European Central Bank (ECB) to do even more. She is calling on the ECB to ease monetary policy in order to combat dangerously low inflation in the euro zone. "More monetary easing, including through unconventional measures, is needed in the euro area," Lagarde said; outlining the Fund's policy recommendations ahead of its spring meetings in Washington next week.

All this is well and good but we need to keep in mind that loose monetary policy has not helped gold in the past 2 ½ years so we should be suspicious if this is indeed what drove gold higher on Wednesday. For now, we would rather favor cycles, and the technical condition on the charts called for a bounce.

Gold Hourly Chart
The trend remains down on the short term cycle but a low is due as the window closed on Wednesday. We got our first bounce and after two probes below the last up trending gold support line, gold is attempting to find support and bounce higher into the end of the week.

For the first time since the sell-off began, gold moved above the blue mini moving average line. Note how the pullback on Wednesday was right on that mini-blue line. This gives us a ray of hope that gold may have found a short term bottom, and perhaps more. We’ll have to see. If gold is in a bull wave, then April/May are favored to bring higher prices.

On the downside, if we lose the gold channel line the next support is 1262-1272 and a close below either will not be good. We are not anticipating that for Thursday. Resistance for Thursday is the 1299-1309 area and support is 1279-1289 with 1289 the mini blue moving average line on the chart. The key now for gold is to challenge the green 200 hour moving average near 1300.

Gold hourly price chart

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