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Monday, May 26, 2014

Gold Trend May 27, 2014


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Long Term ~ Bearish - Need a monthly close above 1800 to confirm the bull market final phase underway.
Medium Term ~ Neutral – Gold on the verge of TURNING BEARISH MEDIUM TERM.
A close below 1272 on a weekly basis does it.
Intermediate Term ~ Neutral – 1265-1272 could be setting up fora test. Need close above 1312 for neutral reading to be enforced and 1322 for bullish. A close below 1272 goes to bearish reading.
Short Term ~ Neutral– The short term cycle is up in the air at the moment.
A close below 1277 puts us outright bearish on the short term. A close above 1312 for upside.

Initial Resistance 1298-1306 2nd tier 1312-1316
Initial Support 1285-1290 and 2nd tier 1266-1276

Options expiration is Tuesday and the highest concentration of puts and calls is at 1300 so we might get a visit there. Once options are out of the way, gold usually moves into a trend but June gold futures last trade day is Friday. That is also a consideration for this week being unusual. The short term cycle window is open this week but with six weeks of neutral readings we’ll have to see what gold has in mind. If it follows its usual path, June should turn down.

Gold Short Term
Price has failed to act decisively on both sides.

A close below 1272 this week might be enough for gold to head lower but the gold Fib line at 1265 is also a consideration for support for the week. Those are the two strongest support points for the week and should be considered 1st downside targets if gold turns down. The 1308-1312 area is resistance, but 1298-1305 is also a consideration.
The pattern is choppy and overlapping, thus the potential for another leg down 
could very well come back in play.
gold hourly price chart
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