Monday, September 15, 2014

Gold Trend / Sept 16, 2014


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Long Term ~ Bearish- Need a monthly close above 1800 to confirm the bull market final phase underway.
Medium Term ~ Neutral/bearish– The failure on gold’s part to close above the moving averages on a monthly basis (March, April, May, July, August) has left the downside open to lower Price potential.
Intermediate Term ~ Bearish– Need a close back above 1272 for neutral.
Short Term ~ Bearish- Gold cycles due to turn this week.

Initial Resistance 1235-1245 2nd tier 1255-1260
Initial Support 1220-1225 2nd tier 1205-1212


Last website update listed gold resistance at 1235-1245 and the high was 1239.
 Support was listed at 1220-1225 and the low was 1226.
The next FOMC meeting begins on Tuesday.

High Beta and Yield Celebrate Lehman 6 Year Anniversary by Plunging
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 09/15/2014 - 16:02
It appears today's weakness in stocks (most notably high-beta momo) and bonds (HY credit weakness) was triggered by two "ma"s - grandma Yellen and grand-poohbah BABA's Ma. Hawkish FOMC concerns took the shine off HY credit (and stocks) but Treasury bonds rallied modestly (5Y -3bps, 10Y -2bps). However, high-beta momo stocks dragged Nasdaq and Russell lower as 'smart money' proclaimed this was making room for the Alibaba IPO (which raises the question - if there is so much pent-up demand money on the sidelines just dying to be lost in the stock market, then why were so many high-beta, high-growth, momo names being sold today, theoretically in order to make room for the BABA IPO?) The US Dollar ended marginally higher (GBP weakness, EUR strength) but most commodities gained on the day (Copper down on China) with WTI back to $93. Stocks did have a mini-melt-up on absolutely no news whatsoever into the last hour but gave most back. The Russell 2000 is -0.5% in 2014.

20% Chance Of Ebola in USA by October; 277,124 Global Cases by Year-End, Model Predicts
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 09/15/2014 - 15:11
"There's nothing to be optimistic about," warns the professor who developed the Global Epidemic and Mobility Model to assess outbreaks, "if the number of cases increases and we are not able to start taming the epidemic, then it will be too late. And then it requires an effort that will be impossible to bring on the ground." As Fred Hutch reports, the deadly Ebola epidemic raging across West Africa will likely get far worse before it gets better, more than doubling the number of known cases by the end of this month, predicting as many as 10,000 cases of Ebola virus disease could be detected by Sept. 24 – and thousands more after that. “The cat’s already out of the box – way, way out," as the analysis of global mobility and epidemic patterns shows a roughly 25% chance of Ebola detection in the UK by the end of September and 18% it will turn up in the USA. "I hope to be wrong, he concludes, but "the data points are still aligned with the worst-case scenario."

Why China's Latest Mini-Stimulus Failed Again
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 09/15/2014 - 16:21
"So much for the ‘mini-stimulus’. The data on China’s economic performance in August released over the weekend were dismal, showing a significant and unexpected decline in growth. The boost from the government’s suite of supportive policies was always going to be temporary, but renewed weakness is appearing much sooner than expected. We had previously thought that policy could keep growth stable for a couple of quarters (see Fears For China’s Growth Postponed), but it only really worked for two months (May and June). So it looks as if the government has already lost its bet that it could keep GDP growth near its 7.5% target with only minimal intervention. With China transitioning out of its high investment phase, growth is on a downward trajectory. To alter that trajectory would require large scale monetary easing, but the government does not yet look inclined to support such a big shift in strategy. All of which points to more of the same: modest policy support and weaker growth."

Gold
A significant portion of the market sees a triangle pattern as completed, and us being on our way to lower lows. Most of the technicians are touting how bad the market looks. Even the fundamentalists are now losing "hope," and some have admittedly become "brokenhearted." Sentiment is at multi-year lows according to some that track it. And, hedge funds have huge short positions in place. This is not usually a recipe for a continued strong decline.

Hourly Gold Chart
These are the two most likely channel potentials that exist at the moment.  The Middle Red dotted downtrend line was added tonight as I took a parallel from the highest point during this last medium term cycle.  The 1220-1225 area is support and then 1195-1210.  Resistance is 1235-1243 and 1255-1260.
Gold hourly price chart

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