Gold Weekly Update

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 According to Reuters news Gold fell 0.8 percent on Friday to its lowest price since January, and silver slumped 3 percent to a four-year low as the dollar surged on bets that U.S. interest rates could rise sooner than expected.

"It's the same story since last week. Gold is under pressure with the dollar at an extremely lofty level, U.S. equities at all-time high, and expectations that U.S. interest rates will rise eventually," said David Meger, director of metals trading at brokerage Vision Financial.

Economic optimism has sapped gold's safe-haven appeal. U.S. economic activity rose less than expected in August, but was still consistent with a moderate expansion, The Conference Board said on Friday.

As you can see there is not much news on passed week on gold. What is really interesting right now is CFTC data

Here we see significant growth in Open Interest for the second consecutive week and drop in Net Long position. “Net Long” means difference between longs and shorts. Hence, decreasing of Net long means either closing longs or opening shorts. But as we see simultaneous growth in Open Interest – it means new positions were opened and these positions probably short. This tells that bearish sentiment still strong and has got new support by new short positions on recent week. Hence, we probably should be ready for more achievements to the downside.

Situation on gold market remains sophisticated. Due bearish moments, such as bullish USD sentiment, lack of physical demand, gold has re-established recently downward action. Recent action shows more and more bearish signs as well as fundamental data and overall market sentiment. On a way down market could pass through multiple target and closest one is 1180$. We even have setup on big picture that suggests moving to 1025-1050 area.
In short term perspective we should wait for reaching of 1180 area first. There some signs should come – whether gold will go lower or not.

On a technical basis, in the bigger picture gold price has probably been in a sideways down trending pattern since the so called double bottom at 1180. First off, this downside move from 1345/46 is most likely to take a breather at 1204-01 or maybe, just maybe 1298-96 before making a second wave correction up (snap rally / up move is expecting this week). At this stage I do not expect the upside correction to go much further than 123x (0.236 to 0.382 Fibo) before gold price slides down again. Anyhow, in the bigger picture a decisive break below 1180 is very much on cards!

Gold Trend

Long Term ~ Bearish– Need a monthly close above 1560 for neutral trend without bearish potential. The key resistance area’s to regain new bull market leg are 1792 and 1804-1830...
Medium Term ~ Neutral/Bearish– Gold has once again closed below the weekly moving averages but the blue (bull) moving average remains above the (bear) red average keeping a NEUTRALITY still. Gold needs to bottom soon and the medium term cycle may provide that in the coming week. The ideal time is Sept 23rd (plus or minus 2.5 weeks)
Intermediate Term ~ Bearish– A close above 1244 weekly needed for neutral

Resistance for this week 1228-1238 and 2nd tier 1255-1260
Support for this week 1202-1208 2nd tier 1172-1182

Gold Hourly Chart
Let’s again look at the last paragraph from last week;
Ever since the uptrend failure in mid-August gold has returned to an intermediate term downtrend. Support is 1219-1229 and near the 1210 area. Resistance is the 1255-1260 area and at 1243-1246.

Back to this week’s update;

The low was 1214 and the high was 1243 as this chart reached both sides of the update. Going to this week’s chart, it will take a close above at least 1243 to favor a turn has developed. On the shorter basis, it takes at least a close above 1228-1235 to take some pressure off. A Friday close above 1222 would be important also. As long as we are below the lower black dotted trend line, favor lower prices. We need to get at least above the upper red for any relief. If we lose the middle dotted red line, look for 1155-1180 as the next support (ideal 1172).

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YOU SHOULD NOT TAKE ANY MATERIAL posted on this BLOG AS RECOMMENDATIONS 
TO BUY OR SELL GOLD OR ANY OTHER INVESTMENT VEHICLE LISTED. 

 Do your own due diligence. 

No one knows tomorrow's price or circumstance. 
 I intend to portray my thoughts and ideas on the subject which may s be used as a tool for the reader. 
I do not accept responsibility for being incorrect in my speculations on market trend. 

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