Tuesday, October 21, 2014

Gold Trend Oct 22, 2014

Long Term ~ Bearish-Need a monthly close above 1800 to confirm the bull market final phase underway. Need a monthly close above 1560 to neutralize the trend.
Medium Term ~ Neutral– Gold needs to close above 1294 on a weekly and monthly basis for bullish outlook.
Intermediate Term ~ Neutral/Bullish-Still need close above 1243. Next resistance 1265-1272.
Short Term ~ Bullish- SNext resistance 1256 / 1260 was achieved on Tuesday with a print high of 1256. Odds favor short term peaks this week with pullback into 1st week of November.

Initial Resistance 1247-1257 2nd tier 1265-1272
Initial Support 1231-1241 2nd tier 1222-1231

The last update listed 1247-1257 as resistance and the high was 1256. 
Support was 1228-1238 and the low was 1245.

Instead of the usual morning smack down, precious metals spiked higher. Gold hit $1255 - its highest in over 5 weeks). Oil also spiked higher and WTI broke above $83.

Gold Overview

Key to this weeks outcome will most likely be the Consumer Price Report due Wednesday morning in USA. It’s here we either peak or decide if we’re heading to 1272. What doesn’t make sense these last two weeks is why is gold stocks still below their moving averages on the chart and just a few points from another yearly low? It certainly be because of their market position where there is no outlook for profits. That we will admit. But it also warns us that the gold move since October 8th (the last short term cycle low and medium term low) is now completing as we arrive just one day before the ideal high day of Oct 23rd on the short term cycles.
The price report will either give gold a final burst higher or we are seeing the highs here. We tried to narrow down the high in our reports for this short term cycle to Oct 23rd – 25th and that is still the odds. If we peaked today just 24 before that projection, its was still a good projection. But I can’t rule out a final push higher into the 25th. A close above 1252-1253 would continue to favor higher gold into that date.

Hourly Gold Chart

We discussed last night that Gold was supporting 1245 and could give us the final push for this week towards 1256-1272. We reached 1256 today reaching the minimum target. We can still pullback towards 1240 and even at 1230 there is another support line. If we get that Wednesday, it is not out of the question to retry a higher price. With that red line being hit twice this week it is very possible that gold is in its peaking process for this first wave up since the low. If the next pullback plays out on cycles, then 1210 or 1230 will become a target to watch to get on board for a short term trade.
gold hourly price chart with support and resistance lines
What Next?  
Previously we said a close above 1243/45 would give the 1252-1262 area or 1272-1284 the most likely area we get into resistance and a high this week. We got the close on Monday and today we reached 1256. The consumer price index on Wednesday is likely the key event this week and we’ve written earlier what to look for. We've got support (weekly at 1222-1232 and perhaps support at 1240-1242 on Wednesday.
Odds are highest for a peak this coming week between Oct 23rd and the 25th of the month and a pullback into the 1st week of November.
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