Thursday, October 16, 2014

Gold Trend October 17, 2014


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Long Term ~ Bearish - Need a monthly close above 1800 to confirm the bull market final phase underway. Need a monthly close above 1560 to neutralize the trend.
Medium Term ~ Neutral – Gold needs to close above 1294 on a weekly and monthly basis for bullish outlook.
Intermediate Term ~ Neutral/Bullish - Still need close above 1243. Next resistance 1265-1272.
Short Term ~ Bullish - Still need a close above 1243. Next resistance 1256 / 1260.

Initial Resistance 1245-1255 2nd tier 1265-1272 
 Initial Support 1218-1228 2nd tier 1207-1211

The last update listed resistance at 1247-1257 and the high was 1246.
Support was listed at 1229-1233 and the low was 1235.

Holdings in global exchange-traded products (ETPs) rose by 3.7 metric tons earlier this week to 1,666 tons. That's the first increase in two weeks, according to Bloomberg data. This year, the exchange-traded funds have been a mixed bag for gold. Some months have actually seen inflows. In all, only about 64 metric tons of gold have trickled out of funds so far this year.
This is a big change from last year, when the gold funds sold the metal hand over fist. A whopping 869 metric tons of gold flowed out of funds and onto the markets last year, hammering prices lower. 
The fact that gold sales are subdued so far this year is positive compared to last year. If funds start buying more gold - as they have recently - that will be a boost for prices.
China Is Buying Less Gold Than Last Year... but Still Buying!
It's hard to figure out exactly how much gold is bought and sold in China because that country is so secretive about its gold purchases. Recently, some observers thought China gold sales were falling off a cliff based on imports through Hong Kong.
According to Hong Kong's Census and Statistics Department, China's gold imports fell for six months in a row through August. That led Commerzbank and others to say that China's net gold imports dropped by a third year over year. Some say the decline could be as high as 40% or 50% year over year. Yikes!
However, things have changed in China. The country recently started direct gold imports into Beijing, and eased restrictions on other ports as well. Sources say it's a way to keep China's imports under the radar as it buys more gold to diversify away from U.S. Treasurys.
And if one looks at withdrawals from the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) - the true indicator of Chinese physical gold demand - the picture is not so bearish. Koos Jansen of ingoldwetrust keeps track of SGE gold demand. His figures show that total China gold demand will probably still see a year-over-year decline - but probably only 15% from 2013's record imports.
 And this is happening in an environment in which China does NOT have to absorb huge sales of metal out of the gold funds. Instead, the Chinese will be buying from the rest of the world.

Hourly Gold Chart
Gold has yet to conquer the 1243-1248 area and as we move to Friday we still don’t have a close above 1243. Support is the 1218-1225 area where the channel lines are.  Resistance remains 1243-1248. The short term trend remains up.
gold price chart
What Next?
The markets are in turmoil and things can turn at any moment in either direction.  This is what happens when markets panic.  Odds favor gold gets one final short term push next week  but beware the short term cycles are approaching.
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