Wednesday, February 4, 2015

Gold Trend Feb 05, 2015


Long Term ~ Bearish-Need a monthly close above 1800 to confirm the bull market 
final phase underway. Need a monthly close above 1560 to neutralize the trend.
Medium Term ~ Neutral– Gold has been upgraded to neutral, but just barely.
Intermediate Term ~ Neutral– Resistance is 1312 and 1322. 
Need close above 1310 for full bullish. A close below 1239 puts trend in bearish.
Short Term ~ Bearish- a cycle low is due Feb 3rd (plus or minus 72 hours). 
Need a close above 1285 to return to neutral.

Initial Resistance 1276-1286 2nd tier 1292-1296
Support 1256-1264 2nd tier 1239-1247


Short Term Gold
While gold held again below key resistance and the short term trend is still bearish, it won’t take much to move to the upside or the downside.

With so much going on right now, gold is keeps gyrating above and below 1272 as it gets ready to make its decision on the direction of trend for the next two weeks. It’s a trade range between 1252 and 1292 with 1272 (the weekly reversal and the medium term bearish to neutral zone). While that’s a mouthful, suffice for tonight it is the where the PIVOT resides. Bulls have the advantage above and bears below. Whichever direction the market takes and breaks out of and confirms starting Monday will favor the trend for the next two weeks. And big moves are more likely to take place than the normal. We’ve learned long ago that what we think makes gold up (in the short term) is not to be trusted. The last crisis in 2008 had gold drop and the Cyprus Bank failure saw gold collapse a few weeks later in 2013.
We certainly won’t rule out manipulation because the point is not getting burned as the global markets are really getting close to serious danger. With the NFP report on Friday, Thursday favors to be a range bound day 10 dollars north and south of 1272.

Gold and the 1272 Pivot
It’s quite the pickle because we are down to 48 hours before the cycle turns but a break here and gold moves to either 1239-1247 or 1222-1232 for a low point. So even though we are close to a cycle turn, the market’s inability to close above 1286 leaves the downside open as gold has not yet decided on its trend. 1255 is the previous high from October and it is also the 200 day moving average and at a mid line channel.

The bottom line is that the short term trend did not close above 1286 (which was our cue for higher price we discussed)
A close above 1286 would favor the low is in and we’re going to move higher while a close below 1251 favors lower. The 1239 area is a 38% FIB pullback. The highest number of FIB hits on a pullback is the 38% area. The best two ranges for a low is 1247-1255 or 1238-1243 for this week.
gold daily price chart

What Next?
Gold stocks look ready to break higher, silver is still 40 cents from its low when gold first hit 1255 and the short term cycle turn is here. That’s the bullish case that puts odds in the 75% category for higher. But we have the NFP on Friday and gold might wait till then and be range bound on Thursday. The real move is most likely put off until Friday and early next week (or Friday) should confirm the direction.


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YOU SHOULD NOT TAKE ANY MATERIAL posted on this BLOG AS RECOMMENDATIONS 
TO BUY OR SELL GOLD OR ANY OTHER INVESTMENT VEHICLE LISTED. 
 Do your own due diligence. 
No one knows tomorrow's price or circumstance. 
 I intend to portray my thoughts and ideas on the subject which may s be used as a tool for the reader. 
I do not accept responsibility for being incorrect in my speculations on market trend. 
 King Regards