Thursday, February 5, 2015

Gold Trend Feb 06, 2015


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GOLD CURRENT WEBSITE TRADE 
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BUY 1 contract gold at 1239
NO STOP LOSS until after NFP.

IN GOLD KEEP THE BUY IN AT 1239.   It is possible we will miss it because 1247-1255 is also a possible hold.   But it is better to be safer than not.  I'll try and update after NFP.  When I say try,  I have to see the pattern and clues if any that gold will give.
Can we explode higher?   Yes.   But we can also get whacked with the control boys.  If the trend turns up, it should be good for at least a week.  We'll look to get on board either above 1272 or 1286.   That's the safest thing at the moment.

Gold Trend
Let's review the technical situation as to where the price points are for higher and lower, which will give us the best shot at how to play the NFP report in the morning and the CYCLE TURN that begins Friday or Monday.   The last 10 NFP reports have been lower than expected.  In the past, gold usually sold off and the dollar would rally or vice versa.  But now gold and the US dollar are FOLLOWING each other.   Not only that, but during this gold pullback,  THE DOLLAR has pulled back also. 

What is going on?
Gold (since Nov 7th has JOINED the "SAFE-HAVEN" pack.  (US dollar, Bonds, & Stocks).   ALL OTHER COMMODITIES HAVE TANKED.  What does that tell you about gold and those who think its just a commodity?   It tells us that gold still is and always has been the GLOBAL CURRENCY.   And while the US dollar is the RESERVE CURRENCY, gold is always going to be the go to currency when paper collapses.   Keep in mind the plan on this crash is to ELIMINATE CASH and force a plastic card on everyone in hopes of total control and the elimination of the the underground market and trade.  (Ultimate tax collection).
the coming collapse favors to begin this year.  Take note that while we've mentioned 2015 in the past, we are going to begin to talk about it much more because it is arriving.  All those who have been saying its here for the past 6 years have been wrong.  The opposite has happened.  The dollar has not collapsed.  It is the GO TOO GLOBAL RESERVE CURRENCY.  AND THAT'S WHERE ITS BEEN GOING BECAUSE as we have mentioned,  Europe would most likely be the one that falls first to set off all the domino's.  

CURRENTLY
The US dollar has reached the most likely place for its correction the 96 - 97 area.  Since then it has pulled back ad is still correcting the massive move it has had.  THE FED AND THE CENTRAL BANKS AND EVERYONE ARE NOW CONCERNED THAT THE DOLLAR COULD CHOKE THIS ENTIRE THING.   It not only can,  but if the FED raises rates the US is going to plunge into a recession, tax revenue is going to collapse, and the debt will spiral.
WHAT POSSIBLE REASON WOULD THE FED RAISE RATES FOR?  ARE THEY REALLY THAT NUTS?
The real reason is that the FED is panicking that STOCKS are forming a bubble and if they don't squelch it soon, the money flow out of panic nations could set up a blow off higher.   The stock market is seen as a safe haven from collapsing currencies but also AWAY WHERE THE GOVERNMENT WILL NEVER and CAN'T GRAB THEIR WEALTH.   
If the feds panic and raise rates to stop the stock bubble, its going to blow the BOND BUBBLE.   Yes, they have a double - bubble on their hands.  But when the bond goes,  its not your typical Hawaiian volcano.  Its a YellowStone or Icelandic bubble.   

So this is the situation.  
WE DON'T KNOW IF GOLD AND THE DOLLAR FOLLOW or which way they are about to go on this turn that is due but the odds favor we make a low and move higher by 70% when we look at the short term cycle.   The support is at those trend lines.   As we know trend lines do get penetrated where the stops are cleared,  and then reverse back up.   The problem is that sometimes they lose support and keep going down.  The 1238-1242 area is 1st support if 1247-1255 support gets taken out.  1255 have held all week as that is the big boy support.   So a clear the stop NFP report would be right in line with what they usually do.  Not what they always do.  But usually.  

gold cycles

Regardless, from a pure technical perspective, gold either bottoms at 1247-1255 or we go the 1239 area (give or take a few dollars). 
Thus he odds favor a turn higher in the cycle.  We know there is no absolute, and thus, odds are 70%.  The pullback looks like a corrective wave pattern and here too the odds favor higher.  But we can't nail a market with just one price point (no one can and stay solvent).  It has too many options available.  This area on the chart is the odds favored.  The control boyz were shorting this market, and perhaps they still need to clear some positions.  If they do, then the 1217-1222 area would be the last support above 1200.  While we don't expect it tomorrow, it is not out of the question.  Keep that in mind.  By trying to re-enter near 1239 means we are looking to get in BEFORE THE TREND TURNS UP.  A safer bet would be to BUY IT on a close above 1285.  Those with small accounts should keep that in mind.  You won't MAKE AS MUCH --- BUT YOU WILL BE LESS LIKELY TO BE STOPPED OUT.  (remember that.) 

 If the control boyz have their way,  then they'll perform a spike and clear and then the cycle should play out.  It may wait until Monday but the odds will be in that favor.  Every low since Nov7th has been a blue cycle low.  That is a bullish "rotation" and what we want. 

If a cycle can invert, and go to a blue cycle High rotation (bearish), can a cycle FAIL?    In other words, can gold go thru this cycle and go lower?   Yes it can and it is in the same category as an inversion.   In a normal year, 3 out of 12 invert or fail.   In a strong year like 2011 not one blue cycle inverted until the VERY top at 1922.  In a sideways market like 2014 they invert at any time.  

Gold Cycles

Price, time and lines have all met at the medium term 200 day moving average.   The average is flat as the market has averaged a price of 1255 over the last 200 days and now the move either holds this level, or spikes at 1239 and turns back up.  The only other option for gold is to go to that lower black channel line near 1222.   1222 is not only a weekly reversal price point, but the 50 day moving average is at 1225 along with the lower black channel line.  Thus it also is a major support point. If the rally is not over, gold has no business below 1217.  The bottom line is odds favor 1238-1242 or 1247-1255 as the most likely low for this cycle turn.  

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M Samer Al Reifae
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http://lordoftruth.blogspot.com
samer@hiwayfxglobal.com
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samer@hiwayfxglobal.com
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YOU SHOULD NOT TAKE ANY MATERIAL posted on this BLOG AS RECOMMENDATIONS 
TO BUY OR SELL GOLD OR ANY OTHER INVESTMENT VEHICLE LISTED. 
 Do your own due diligence. 
No one knows tomorrow's price or circumstance. 
 I intend to portray my thoughts and ideas on the subject which may s be used as a tool for the reader. 
I do not accept responsibility for being incorrect in my speculations on market trend. 
 King Regards