Long Term ~ Bearish-Need a monthly close above 1800 to confirm the bull
market final phase underway.
Need a monthly close above 1560 to neutralize the trend.
Medium Term ~ Neutral– Gold has been upgraded to neutral, but just barely.
Intermediate Term ~ Neutral– Need close above 1272-1285 for full bullish
Short Term ~ Bearish- a cycle low due here. Must hold 1216-1222 another 2 weeks lower.
Initial Resistance 1244-1255 2nd tier 1266-1272
Support 1222-1232 2nd tier 1212-1217
Last night listed resistance at 1244-1255 and the high was 1244.
Support was listed 1222-1232 and the low was 1234.
market final phase underway.
Need a monthly close above 1560 to neutralize the trend.
Medium Term ~ Neutral– Gold has been upgraded to neutral, but just barely.
Intermediate Term ~ Neutral– Need close above 1272-1285 for full bullish
Short Term ~ Bearish- a cycle low due here. Must hold 1216-1222 another 2 weeks lower.
Initial Resistance 1244-1255 2nd tier 1266-1272
Support 1222-1232 2nd tier 1212-1217
Last night listed resistance at 1244-1255 and the high was 1244.
Support was listed 1222-1232 and the low was 1234.
Gold Summary
When it comes to gold, whether we believe manipulation, deflation or liquidation or all three, all that really matters is which way is the price about to break?
We need a close above 1266-1272 to clear the downtrend channel. We need to get above 1247-1255 and pretty fast or we’re going to sell off again. Any close below 1216 has to favor lower under 1200.
Any new weekly low (and esp close) is going to tilt the odds to the downside into the 19th of the month. On the upside, 1266-1272 is required.
The very short term chart is bearish, but there is a bullish chart formation on the daily chart. Let’s look at both.
This is the view of the downtrend since the high at 1307. Clearly is where 1255 gave way. The question is a simple one. Can gold recapture 1255 and then move above 1272? Because that’s what it takes to get the uptrend going again. What I don’t like is the pattern since the low. It is a choppy and overlapping pattern. That is most often, but not always a pattern that suggests the low is not in. That would mean that we can go back to the lower line on this chart. But if we lose 1216 then odds will favor we’re moving to 1172-1202.
There are exceptions like the other point on this chart that hit this lower channel line previously. That one morphed and the rebound made it back to the top of the channel. RESISTANCE is 1247-1255 and then 1266-1272. Support is 1217-1228. The short term trend is down. A break down from here could continue and until we get above 1247 we should expect it. If we clear 1247 we still have KEY resistance at 1255-1272. The bears have control at the moment.
The Daily chart
The daily chart has a very bullish inverted head and shoulder and the pullback here is labeled a RETURN MOVE. The most important support is the neckline. Thus the 1216-1222 must hold or price will most like move below 1200 to test the failure line. That’s the last support on this uptrend. The key is this. This pattern only works 60% of the time. When it works the move is usually good sized. When it fails, the drop is usually good sized. Get ready the decision probably begins on Tuesday/Wednesday.
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YOU SHOULD NOT TAKE ANY MATERIAL posted on this BLOG AS RECOMMENDATIONS
TO BUY OR SELL GOLD OR ANY OTHER INVESTMENT VEHICLE LISTED.
TO BUY OR SELL GOLD OR ANY OTHER INVESTMENT VEHICLE LISTED.
Do your own due diligence.
No one knows tomorrow's price or circumstance.
I intend to portray my thoughts and ideas on the subject which may s be used as a tool for the reader.
I do not accept responsibility for being incorrect in my speculations on market trend.
I intend to portray my thoughts and ideas on the subject which may s be used as a tool for the reader.
I do not accept responsibility for being incorrect in my speculations on market trend.
King Regards
