Wednesday, February 11, 2015

Gold Trend Feb 11, 2015

Long Term ~ Bearish-Need a monthly close above 1800 to confirm the bull market 
final phase underway. Need a monthly close above 1560 to neutralize the trend.
Medium Term ~ Neutral– Gold has been upgraded to neutral, but just barely.
Intermediate Term ~ Neutral– Need close above 1272-1285 for full bullish
Short Term ~ Bearish- a cycle low due here. 
Must hold 1216-1222 or another 2 weeks lower.

Initial Resistance 1244-1255 2nd tier 1266-1272
Support 1222-1232 2nd tier 1212-1217

Last night listed resistance at 1244-1255 and the high was 1246. 
Support was listed 1222-1232 and the low was 1231.
Gold Summary
When it comes to gold, whether we believe manipulation, deflation or liquidation or all three, all that really matters is which way is the price about to break?
In order to refocus let’s look at the last 60 days. The coming debt default, liquidity squeeze, deflation, civil unrest, we’ve discussed for a few years now is escalating. When this happens it usually leads to war. There is no question there either. Just look around.

We had Cyprus “event” where they ran a DEMO of a bail in. Shortly thereafter, gold tanked hard.
Now we enter the Greek Demo. “Should they stay or should they Go?”
Europe says you have to restructure and pay your debt.
Greece threatens to leave.
What’s going to happen?
Odds usually favor they make a deal in the last hour. Europe forgives ½ the debt and in the end, Greece starts paying the interest again. In the end, they won’t pay the rest anyway, but the EU will figure it’s the only way to kick the can just one more time or face and uncertain repercussion.
With Russia offering Greece support, well, I don’t think it’s sunk in to everyone how serious its becoming. This is going to turn into a “It’s for all the marbles” game if we’re not careful.  

We are now in 2015 and the debt/default event is arriving.  If Greece pulls out odds favor things are going to get a lot more dangerous.  Maybe not right away, but the odds favor it will be the ice burg that rammed the Titanic and the countdown will be underway.

So what is gold doing?
What does the chart say?
Sixty days ago, gold was at 1238. Thirty days ago, gold was at 1238. Right now gold is at 1238. At the now moment, gold is telling us it’s neutral.
But its also telling us that it is bucking the trend against a commodity collapse with Oil (Energy) leading the way down. That means that it is susceptible to turning down along with commodities and quite frankly, almost all of the other currencies on earth (against the US dollar). Because it is moving COUNTER to the norm the pattern is choppy and overlapping and while its in an uptrend its one that can turn against the uptrend. If we continue on the pattern that began in December of 2013, then the trend should be our friend and turn back up from 1220-1230 and move higher. That would be a FIRST REFLECTION because the pattern would repeat (dotted arrow) as has been occurring. A FAILURE would suggest an opposite reaction (A SECOND REFLECTION) and would favor the 1202 or the 1172 area. A close below 1216 would have to FAVOR gold is going to move to the lower targets next

Gold chart the last 60 days

Any close above 1266-1272 will favor gold is heading towards 1322. The key RESISTANCE will be the 1247-1266 area with 1255 (right in the middle) as the absolute area price MUST OVERCOME to tilt the odds higher. Any close below 1216-1222 will favor lower. That is the bottom line. Regardless of what you read in the rest of the report, or whatever news hits, those are the price levels to watch for short term direction. With tomorrow mid week Wednesday, if the control boyz have their way they are going to try and push gold to 1222. We need to be careful under 1255 as the bears have control until we are above there.

The Daily chart
The daily chart has a very bullish inverted head and shoulder and the pullback here is labeled a RETURN MOVE. The most important support is the neckline. Thus the 1216-1222 must hold or price will most like move below 1200 to test the failure line. That’s the last support on this uptrend. The key is this. This pattern only works 60% of the time. When it works the move is usually good sized. When it fails, the drop is usually good sized.
Wednesday is the day of the week where the most highs and lows (for the week) are made. That doesn’t mean the always do, just more often than the other days.


gold daily price chart with head and shoulder pattern

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 Do your own due diligence. 
No one knows tomorrow's price or circumstance. 
 I intend to portray my thoughts and ideas on the subject which may s be used as a tool for the reader. 
I do not accept responsibility for being incorrect in my speculations on market trend. 
 King Regards