Long Term ~ Bearish-Need a monthly close above 1800 to confirm the bull market
final phase underway. Need a monthly close above 1560 to neutralize the trend.
Medium Term ~ Neutral– Gold has been upgraded to neutral, but just barely.
Intermediate Term ~ Bearish– Need close above 120 in GOLD ETF GLD to neutralize the downtrend.
Short Term ~ Bearish- Short term cycle due to bottom Feb 19th (plus or minus 72 hour).
A close above 1222 neutralizes the downtrend.
Initial Resistance 1216-1224 2nd tier 1231-1239
Support 1205-1212 2nd tier 1190-1199
The last update had resistance at 1212-1222 and the high was 1213.
Support was listed at 1193-1203 and the low was 1197.
There is just so much going on but from a market perspective, the most important factor right now is what the Fed is going to do with interest rates. Today’s FOMC minutes from the Fed while remaining with its current policy of a tightening coming, still had enough language in there to at least tell the world it was not ready to move higher just yet.
Since the global problem coming to fruition is debt, then it is critical to understand how the FED is going to react in rates.
Why would the Fed raise rates in such a fragile economy? There’s so much that can be said about it. The most likely real reason is they are worried the stock market is turning into a bubble. But they are stuck in a corner at this point.
Gold Commentary
Before we get into tonight’s update, in which odds favor gold is bottoming and turning up, there is one thing to keep in mind. Here’s the dilemma.
China closed today for the next five days and there is no trading. In the past, this has been a key time for the control boyz to take gold out to the wood shed and drive it lower.
With todays low, gold looks like it wants to move higher.
There is a potential that we can rally to 1216-1222 and then the boyz will attempt another slam. We say potential because there is a whole lot going on right now. Of course, we can’t say for sure, but in this market one has to expect anything.
Gold Short Term
After incorrectly thinking that 1216-1222 would hold earlier in the week , gold reached our target we listed on last night’s update. Here’s what we said;
Thus odds favor a low and bounce begins near the 1197 area (plus or minus 5 dollars). Wednesday might again give us a weekly low…. Odds favor we hold the lower support line on Wednesday and a bounce from there should begin.
The low today was 1197 right on the button. On the chart below, we reached the 61.8% retrace and have bounced above 1212. The lower channel line goes about as low as 1190. I don’t want to rule out that area as it still possible. But the bounce was hard today and favors gold moves to 1218-1224 on Thursday. Support will begin in the 1204-1207 area. WE NEED A WEEKLY CLOSE ABOVE 1222 ON FRIDAY TO NEUTRALIZE the downtrend.
Thursday favors a move right back to the 1218-1224 area in gold. Support is the 1202-1210 area. Pullbacks to that area should find support on Thursday. It’s not out of the question to get one more plunk to 1190 due to China being closed. That’s the only wild card to watch out for. If it happens odds favor it happens Friday/Monday at the latest.
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YOU SHOULD NOT TAKE ANY MATERIAL posted on this BLOG AS RECOMMENDATIONS
TO BUY OR SELL GOLD OR ANY OTHER INVESTMENT VEHICLE LISTED.
TO BUY OR SELL GOLD OR ANY OTHER INVESTMENT VEHICLE LISTED.
Do your own due diligence.
No one knows tomorrow's price or circumstance.
I intend to portray my thoughts and ideas on the subject which may s be used as a tool for the reader.
I do not accept responsibility for being incorrect in my speculations on market trend.
I intend to portray my thoughts and ideas on the subject which may s be used as a tool for the reader.
I do not accept responsibility for being incorrect in my speculations on market trend.
King Regards
