Thursday, February 19, 2015

Gold Trend Feb 19, 2015

Long Term ~ Bearish-Need a monthly close above 1800 to confirm the bull market 
final phase underway. Need a monthly close above 1560 to neutralize the trend.
Medium Term ~ Neutral– Gold has been upgraded to neutral, but just barely. 
A close below 1222 in February returns gold to bearish.
Intermediate Term ~ Bearish– Need close above 120 in GOLD ETF GLD to neutralize the downtrend.
Short Term ~ Bearish- Short term cycle due to bottom Feb 19th (plus or minus 72 hour). 
A close above 1222 neutralizes the downtrend.

Initial Resistance 1216-1224 2nd tier 1231-1239

Support 1188-1198 2nd tier 1167-1172

The last update had resistance at 1216-1224 and the high was 1223. 
Support was listed at 1205-1212 and the low was 1205.

We have been discussing the acceleration of the global debt default, and economic downturn facing the nations of the world. We have been looking at the USA being the last one to peak and then odds favor the downturn accelerates. The 2nd half of 2015 is when things are due on long term cycles to accelerate the coming Liquidity Squeeze. It certainly can be sooner.
Let’s just look at the situation for a moment.
In 2008 we had the Corporate version of the debt default. That was the “Bailout Demo.” The world recovered.
All that is except Greece. One has to wonder if this is the “Default Demo.”
You all know the Greek story. Well, here’s the rest of the story. How debt default leads to civil unrest and the replacement of governments.
• 9 February 2010 – The parliament approved the First austerity package measures that included a freeze in the salaries of all government employees, a 10% cut in bonuses, as well as cuts in overtime workers. (Take MONEY AWAY from CITIZENS)
• 3 March 2010 – The parliament passed a new major austerity package measures. The measures included: Pensions freezes, an increase in sales tax from 19% to 21%, rises in taxes on fuel, cigarettes and alcohol, rises in taxes on luxury goods, cuts in public sector pay. (Take MONEY AWAY from ALL CITIZENS).
• 23 April 2010 – George Papandreou, Greece’s prime minister formally requested an international bailout. The financing will come from an emergency aid package with the participation of European Union, European Central Bank and International Monetary Fund.[13]
• 2 May 2010 – Papandreou, the IMF, and euro-zone leaders agree to a €110 billion ($143 billion) bailout package that would take effect over the next three years. The government announced the new austerity package measures. (More CUTS from Citizens)

Civil unrest begins
• 5 May 2010 – General nationwide strike and demonstrations in two major cities in Greece turned violent. Three people were killed when a group of masked people threw petrol bombs in a Marfin Egnatia Bank branch on Stadiou street.[17]
• 6 May 2010 – The Greek parliament passed the new austerity package measures. The bill passed with 172 votes in favour and 121 against, with the votes of governing party (without three deputies) and the party LAOS.[18][19]
• 7 July 2010 – Parliament passes pension reform, a key requirement of the EU/IMF.[21]
• 15 December 2010 – The parliament passed the law for public companies. The law sets a cap on wage monthly as well as cuts by 10 percent the salaries above 1,800 euro. (Take MONEY AWAY from ALL CITIZENS)
• 23 December 2010 – Greece’s parliament approved the 2011 austerity budget.

• 25 May 2011 – The Greek Indignant Citizens Movement also known as Square Movement was started the daily protests. It was inspired by Spanish similar movement.
• 17 June 2011 – The prime minister made a broad cabinet reshuffle. Evangelos Venizelos assumed new Finance Minister.
• 29 June 2011 – The Greek parliament passed the new austerity package measures despite the big protests outside the parliament building. The two-day demonstrations against the bill, turned violent as protestors clashed with police in front of the Greek parliament and other areas of central Athens. The bill passed with 155 votes in favour and 138 against. The measures included new taxes and new cuts of worker's wages (Take MONEY AWAY from ALL CITIZENS).
• 11 September 2011 – The government imposed a new property tax that be collected through electricity bill. (Take MONEY AWAY from ALL CITIZENS)
• 20 October 2011 – Greece government passed the multi-austerity bill, amid protests and violent riots outside the parliament building.
• 27 October 2011 – The investors agreed a "haircut" of 50% in converting their existing bonds into new loans. Take MONEY AWAY from ALL CITIZENS.
• 28 October 2011 – An anti-austerity protest in Thessaloniki forced the cancellation of the parade on the commemoration of 28 October (national holiday). Similar incidents occurred in several other Greek cities.
• 31 October 2011 – Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou called for a confidence vote and a referendum to approve last week's EU summit deal about the Greek debt haircut.
• 4 November 2011 – George Papandreou won the confidence vote with 153 votes in favour and 145 votes against.
• 6 November 2011 – Prime Minister George Papandreou resigned.
• 10 November 2011 – Lucas Papademos became the New Greek Prime Minister, leader of the three party’s coalition government, consisted by parties PASOK, ND and LAOS.[
• December 2011 – Greece's private TV channel Alter stopped broadcasting due to financial difficulties.

• 12 February 2012 – The parliament passed a new austerity package measures (Take MONEY AWAY from ALL CITIZENS) amid violent protests. Many buildings in the centre of Athens were burnt during the riots.
• 4 April 2012 – A retired pharmacist commits suicide a short distance from Greece’s parliament as an act of protest against austerity politics. He immediately becomes a symbol for groups opposing the austerity measures, and violent clashes between police and demonstrators erupt in Athens.
• 6 May 2012 – The election was held. The New Democracy party won but it reduced its rates. The governing party PASOK collapsed while radical left party and far right party had increase of their rates. Neither of the parties won the majority of the parliament seats. So was announced early election in June.
• 16 May 2012 – Panagiotis Pikramenos assumed a caretaker Prime Minister.
• 17 June 2012 – The early election was held. The New Democracy party won with a 29.7% of votes but didn’t concentrate the majority of the parliament seats. Four days later, it was formed a coalition government with the participation New Democracy, PASOK and DIMAR. Antonis Samaras, the president of New Democracy, became the new Prime Minister of Greece.
• 5 November 2012 – The Greek parliament adopted a new round of austerity cuts that are required for Greece to receive the next installment of the international economic bailout. A big protest occurred outside the parliament (Take MONEY AWAY from ALL CITIZENS).
• 11 November 2012 – Greece passes the 2013 austerity budget.

• 28 April 2013 – The parliament approved a bill that included cut some 15,000 state jobs by the end of next year, including 4,000 in 2013(Take MONEY AWAY from ALL CITIZENS)
• 11 June 2013 – The Greek government closed down the country's Public Broadcasting Service ERT.
• 21 June 2013 – Democratic Left withdrew from Greek coalition government. The government kept a razor-thin majority in parliament.
• 24 June 2013 – Greek Prime Minister Antonis Samaras reshuffled his cabinet.
• 17 July 2013 – The Greek parliament approves new austerity measures including a contentious plan for thousands of layoffs and wage cuts for civil service workers. Take MONEY AWAY from CITIZENS
• 21 December 2013 –The bill about the new tax property and the auction of houses was approved by a majority of 152 deputies in the 300-seat chamber. Take MONEY AWAY from ALL CITIZENS.


• 30 March 2014 – The Greek parliament passed a new multi-bill that needed to pass, so as Greece receive its next bailout. A deputy of government's majority was expelled by Samaras, because he didn't support an article of the bill.
• 10 April 2014 – Greece returned to financial markets, with the issue of 3 billion Eurobonds.
• 18 May 2014 – The Local elections were held.
• 25 May 2014 – The European Parliament Election was held. Coalition of the Radical Left won in elections.
• 9 June 2014 – New cabinet reshuffle. The professor Gikas Hardouvelis was named as finance minister.
• 8 December 2014 – The Greek government announced snap presidential vote.
Next day the Greek stock market fell 12.78%, a fall record since 1989.
• 29 December 2014 – The government collapses after failing to elect new president of Greece.[77] This leads to snap elections that will be held on 25 January 2015.

25 January 2015 – The Legislative election was held. Coalition of the Radical Left won a historic victory.
• 26 January 2015 – The new government is formed by the cooperation of Coalition of the Radical Left and Independent Greeks. Alexis Tsipras swears in as new Prime Minister.
And now you know the rest of the story and who has paid for the entire mess.

What next?

A build up to frenzy.

Greek Deposit Run Accelerates Ahead Of Monday's Bank Holiday

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 02/19/2015

Official Greek DEPOSIT data began tumbling in December (outflows around EUR3bn), and accelerated in January in the run up to the Syriza election (proxied by JPMorgan at over EUR 12bn). During the last two weeks, however, the absence of ATM lines and visible bank runs has been curiously lacking as, at least on the surface, there appears to be no panic. However, as Dody Tsiantar reports, sources in the Greek banking sector have told Greek newspapers that as much as EUR 25bn EUROS have left Greek banks since the end of December with outflows surging this week. Perhaps they are getting anxious that authorities will take Cypriot advantage of the Bank Holiday that is planned in Greece on Monday.

Greece And The Endgame Of The Neocolonial Model Of Exploitation

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 02/19/2015 - 19:30

With the bankruptcy of Greece now undeniable, we've finally reached the endgame of the Neocolonial-Financialization Model. There are no more markets to exploit with financialization, and the fact that the mountains of debt are unpayable can no longer be masked. At this point, the financial Aristocracy has an unsolvable dilemma: writing off defaulted debt also writes off assets and income streams, for every debt is somebody else's asset and income stream. When all those phantom assets are recognized as worthless, the system implodes.

Can they kick this can just one more time in the last hour like they always do?

Telephone conversations Tsipra with Merkel, Hollande and Renzo.
Tsipras had 50-minute telephone conversation with German Chancellor A.Merkel. The two agreed to a mutually beneficial agreement for Greece and discussed in a positive atmosphere.
Also, the Greek prime minister A.Tsipras contacted the Italian counterpart M.Rentsi, who in turn had spoken on the phone with the President of the European Commission Z.K.Giounker.
Is it bullish for gold?
Was QE, Cyprus default, 2008 crash, and everything else that has happened in the last 40 months?
At the current moment, all trends still remain down. A short term bounce is due. And even that is only 75% favored. Remain cautious.  Be careful.

Gold Commentary
China remains closed. We discussed that the control boyz are in full charge right now. The chart below shows just a 4 dollar range during Asian market times and the Majority of the world slept. Then London from the get-go moves gold right to the 1222 weekly reversal price an hour before the close. Then USA opened and along with London pummeled the market all day long. Look at the red when London and USA open. This was the one concern we voiced last night on the update about a cycle turn here. Now we go to Friday. Gold needs to close above 1222 on Friday to neutralize the short term downtrend.

Short Term Gold
We discussed last night that we had what looked like a low at 1197 and favored a move back to first KEY RESISTANCE to overcome (1216-1222). Little did we realize that 1223 was reached by time New York traders were getting ready to go. From a chat perspective gold reached the short term moving averages and price was turned back down to the 1205 area and settled out at around 1208 today. Resistance is 1215-1223 on Friday. Support is 1189-1199.

Bottom line – we move into Friday with London and USA closing out the week and going into an unsure situation once again over the weekend.

Gold hourly price chart

Overall Gold Chart
Here’s the view that shows where gold has to hold. A price below 1190-1188 is the break point to 1167-1172. Thus the 1190-1200 is a must hold area because it activates lower potential. Since the cycle window is still open Friday (last day of window) there is NOTHING cast in stone yet. However, a market that moves from 1197 to 1223 and then moves lower than 1197 is NOT NORMAL behavior. Let’s see if gold can hold on and turn up.
One final note, for those who remember our target highs for Q1 most likely dates were Jan 19th-23rd / Feb 19th – 23rd or March 19th-23rd. The green line shows the first target in January and that’s right where we peaked. However, we were favoring February as the MOST likely date for a high because of the short term blue cycle. When it inverted, it gave us this Feb 19th Low point instead of a high.

Gold price chart

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 Do your own due diligence. 
No one knows tomorrow's price or circumstance. 
 I intend to portray my thoughts and ideas on the subject which may s be used as a tool for the reader. 
I do not accept responsibility for being incorrect in my speculations on market trend. 
 King Regards