Wednesday, February 25, 2015

Gold Trend Feb 26, 2015

Long Term ~ Bearish-Need a monthly close above 1800 to confirm the bull market 
final phase underway. Need a monthly close above 1560 to neutralize the trend.
Medium Term ~ Neutral– Gold has been upgraded to neutral, but just barely. 
A close below 1222 in February returns gold to bearish.
Intermediate Term ~ Bearish– Need close above 120 in GOLD ETF GLD 
to neutralize the downtrend.
Short Term ~ Bearish- A close above 1213 neutralizes the downtrend. 
Key resistance 1222 and then 1239. Support 1166-1172 and 1188-1190

Initial Resistance 1210-1215 2nd tier 1218-1223
Support 1188-1194 2nd tier 1167-1172

The last update listed resistance at 1210-1215 and the high was 1212. 
Support was listed at 1188-1194 and the low was 1201.

As 2015 unfolds, look for things to start moving faster and in many directions.

As far as the debt crisis

It begins ................................debt cancellation. It's the only way to avoid a massive deflationary spiral.

Croatia is introducing a more direct stimulus plan. They will cancel the debts of the poor up to May 2015 if they do not exceed 4,550 euros and their monthly income does not exceed 325 euros. All claims for debt relief will be restricted to citizens who have no properties or other assets and their bank account is locked for a year because of the debt. This is at least more direct than handing billions to bankers who do not lend it out anyway. A little thinking out of the box.

As far as the coming sovereign wars get ready

Ukraine Enters The Endgame

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 02/25/2015

Back in March 2014 we forecast that it in the aftermath of the US State Department-sponsored military coup in Kiev, it was only a matter of time before Ukraine (all of its sovereign gold having since "vaporized") succumbed to full blown hyperinflation and economic implosion. Less than a year later, precisely this outcome has finally played out, and as a result, the entire nation has finally entered its economic endgame, one which has two conclusion: either it joins Greece in becoming a ward of Europe (of which it is not an official member) and the IMF (thank you Joe Q Public taxpayer), or it quietly fades away into insolvent "failed state" status.

Iran Televises Major Naval Drill Against Fake US Aircraft Carrier In Persian Gul
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 02/25/2015

Amid the to-ing and fro-ing of John Kerry and the nuclear program negotiations, it seemed quite ironic that Iran would unleash a major naval drill near the strategically vital entrance of the Persian Gulf. As AP reports, more than a dozen swarming Iranian speedboats assaulted a replica of a U.S. aircraft carrier, as the Guard's navy chief, Adm. Ali Fadavi, who last month boasted that his force is capable of sinking American aircraft carriers in the event of war, said on state television, "American aircraft carriers are very big ammunition depots housing a lot of missiles, rockets, torpedoes and everything else."

And as far as the coming deflationary collapse

The Most Important Commodity For Housing Is Screaming "Recession"

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 02/25/2015

While Crude Oil and Dr. Copper are often cited as economic indicators, as we noted previously, in fact Lumber prices are the most correlated with ISM and GDP of all industrial commodities (h/t @Not_Jim_Cramer). That is a problem. Lumber prices are tumbling - breaking to 18-month lows today. We have seen this picture before, and it did not end well.

in nationalism, the timing is odd and as the head of Munich's Jewish community exclaimed, "this book is most evil."

Brazil Consumer Confidence Collapses To Lowest. Ever.

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 02/25/2015

It appears all the emerging/emerged economies of the world that are supposed to be the dynamic growth engines to lead the world to escape velocity are, well, not. Perhaps no better example is Brazil where hyper-growth expectations have disappeared into a black hole as business and consumer confidence collapsed this week to historical lows. As Goldman noted, "This poses major headwinds for private consumption and overall activity in the coming months."

It is important to note that while some will be experiencing massive deflation others will suffer the opposite fate.

We started this update with a debt cancellation, the other side of the coin is well illustrated on the chart below and is my #1 reason why I don’t trust shorting gold. There is no escape when you’re on the wrong side of a move like below. And you can be guaranteed that when it begins, your market will be closed when decisions are made and dams burst.

Gold Commentary
Let’s break it down to its lowest component with the chart below. The short, intermediate and medium term trend are pretty much at the same price zone.

The Upside
The first major trend lines are the 2014 downtrend line and the 2015 uptrend line. As you can see we are at the 2015 uptrend line. Keep in mind that we had a triple bottom low at 1180 broken that was the low for 2013 and 2014. Note how the lower blue 2015 uptrend line is right around this 1180 area. In order for gold to be in any uptrend this line has to be bottom line support. 1180 is where the uptrend for gold ends.

The downside
Under 1180 and we break the 2015 uptrend line and then the 2014 downtrend line comes into play. Right now that is the 1155-1166 area and is descending at the rate of about a dollar a day. If gold can’t hold that downtrend line, and gold will go right back to continuing the downtrend that it has been on since 2011.

gold weekly price chart

Short Term Gold

it’s do or die for gold in the short term. The key now is gold needs to get above the weekly reversal at 1222
ONE FINAL POINT: The high on Monday was 1210, Thus 1210-1214 is 1st resistance and then 1218-1225 on Thursday. Those are the key price points to watch. As long as we are below 1210-1214, remain cautious.

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 Do your own due diligence. 
No one knows tomorrow's price or circumstance. 
 I intend to portray my thoughts and ideas on the subject which may s be used as a tool for the reader. 
I do not accept responsibility for being incorrect in my speculations on market trend. 
 King Regards