Long Term ~ Bearish-Need a monthly close above 1800 to confirm the bull market
final phase underway. Need a monthly close above 1560 to neutralize the trend.
Medium Term ~ Neutral– Gold has been upgraded to neutral, but just barely. A close below 1222 in February returns gold to bearish.
Intermediate Term ~ Bearish– Need close above 120 in GOLD ETF GLD to neutralize the downtrend.
Short Term ~ Bearish- A close above 1213 neutralizes the downtrend.
Medium Term ~ Neutral– Gold has been upgraded to neutral, but just barely. A close below 1222 in February returns gold to bearish.
Intermediate Term ~ Bearish– Need close above 120 in GOLD ETF GLD to neutralize the downtrend.
Short Term ~ Bearish- A close above 1213 neutralizes the downtrend.
Key resistance 1222 and then 1239. Support 1166-1172 and 1188-1190
Initial Resistance 1210-1215 2nd tier 1218-1223
Support 1188-1194 2nd tier 1167-1172
The last update listed resistance at 1210-1215 and the high was 1221.
Initial Resistance 1210-1215 2nd tier 1218-1223
Support 1188-1194 2nd tier 1167-1172
The last update listed resistance at 1210-1215 and the high was 1221.
Support was listed at 1188-1194 and the low was 1204.
As far as the debt crisis
Last night we discussed Croatia and debt cancellation.
But the real brouhaha is Greece from the debt side.
Why do I have a really bad feeling inside my stomach that this is not going to work?
Greece Suffers Biggest Bank Run In History: January Deposits Plunge To 2005 Levels
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 02/26/2015
The Bank of Greece presented its latest, January, deposit data. And it's a doozy: following a record €12.2 billion monthly outflow, greater in absolute and relative terms than anything experienced during any of the previous Greek crises and bailouts, the total amount of Greek corporate and household deposits has now tumbled to just €148 billion. This number is in line with some of the more pessimistic expectations, and brings the total cash holdings at Greek banks to the lowest level since August 2005.
And what about public reaction?
Full Circle: The First Anti-Government Protest In Greece Turns Ugly
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 02/26/2015
The first anti-government rally in Athens turned ugly as anti-authoritarian protesters started to smash the windows of a pastry shop and two jewelry shops and put two vehicles and several garbage bins on fire. According to latest information, there was no intervention by riot police although squads were standing near by.
Then the Greek government response;
Greece Warns It May Default On IMF Loan Next Week
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 02/26/2015
Now that the Greek topic is back to overall debt sustainability, a few hours ago Greece Kathimerini reported that the Euro Working Group "discussed Greece’s imminent funding problems on Thursday amid mounting concern about how the country will meet its obligations next months." This follows a suggestion earlier in the day by the Greek Minister of State for Coordinating Government Operations Alekos Flambouraris that "Greece might delay payment to the International Monetary Fund if it cannot find the necessary money." But wait, how does a country "delay" a debt payment? It doesn't: "According to officials familiar with the subject. such a move would constitute a “clear default,” with consequences for a large number of other loans Greece has received."
And as far as the coming deflationary collapse
US Posts First Negative Inflation Print Since Lehman On Gas Price Plunge
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 02/26/2015 -
As previewed earlier today, January CPI data was historic in that, 6 years after Lehman, the US just reported its first negative headline CPI print, with overall inflation, or rather deflation, in January coming at -0.1%, in line with expectations, and down from the 0.8% in December. On a monthly basis, CPI tumbled by 0.7% from December, driven almost entirely by collapsing energy prices. Excluding the Great financial crisis, one has to go back a few years to find the last time the US posted annual headline deflation.... all the way back to August 1955, or just about the time Marty McFly was trying not to dance with his mother.
Gold Commentary
Gold was rejected right at resistance (1221) for a full three hours on Thursday and then the sellers moved price all the way back down to 1205 in yet another disappointing reversal lower for gold on Thursday. In the end, gold pretty much finished at the same place as it did on Wednesday.
Thursday comes down to the same thing. Gold must close above 1222-1225 to favor higher prices next week and a close below 1187 will favor lower.
To say gold is at a tipping point right now is an understatement. The chart below tells the tale. If we lose 1172-1180 on Friday ON THE LAST DAY OF THE MONTH, we’d have to favor gold moving lower towards 1130-1155 with the potential for more. Even a close below 1187 is not a bullish development.
In summary gold remains in a trade range and refuses to go above 1222-1225. If gold can do that on Friday then we’ll look for 1240-1255 next week. As long as gold is below 1122-1125, it can turn down at any moment. Be careful. THERE’S A LOT OF STOPS below that bull/bear line. And that’s what it is. THE BULL/BEAR LINE at the moment.
As far as the debt crisis
Last night we discussed Croatia and debt cancellation.
But the real brouhaha is Greece from the debt side.
Why do I have a really bad feeling inside my stomach that this is not going to work?
Greece Suffers Biggest Bank Run In History: January Deposits Plunge To 2005 Levels
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 02/26/2015
The Bank of Greece presented its latest, January, deposit data. And it's a doozy: following a record €12.2 billion monthly outflow, greater in absolute and relative terms than anything experienced during any of the previous Greek crises and bailouts, the total amount of Greek corporate and household deposits has now tumbled to just €148 billion. This number is in line with some of the more pessimistic expectations, and brings the total cash holdings at Greek banks to the lowest level since August 2005.
And what about public reaction?
Full Circle: The First Anti-Government Protest In Greece Turns Ugly
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 02/26/2015
The first anti-government rally in Athens turned ugly as anti-authoritarian protesters started to smash the windows of a pastry shop and two jewelry shops and put two vehicles and several garbage bins on fire. According to latest information, there was no intervention by riot police although squads were standing near by.
Then the Greek government response;
Greece Warns It May Default On IMF Loan Next Week
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 02/26/2015
Now that the Greek topic is back to overall debt sustainability, a few hours ago Greece Kathimerini reported that the Euro Working Group "discussed Greece’s imminent funding problems on Thursday amid mounting concern about how the country will meet its obligations next months." This follows a suggestion earlier in the day by the Greek Minister of State for Coordinating Government Operations Alekos Flambouraris that "Greece might delay payment to the International Monetary Fund if it cannot find the necessary money." But wait, how does a country "delay" a debt payment? It doesn't: "According to officials familiar with the subject. such a move would constitute a “clear default,” with consequences for a large number of other loans Greece has received."
And as far as the coming deflationary collapse
US Posts First Negative Inflation Print Since Lehman On Gas Price Plunge
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 02/26/2015 -
As previewed earlier today, January CPI data was historic in that, 6 years after Lehman, the US just reported its first negative headline CPI print, with overall inflation, or rather deflation, in January coming at -0.1%, in line with expectations, and down from the 0.8% in December. On a monthly basis, CPI tumbled by 0.7% from December, driven almost entirely by collapsing energy prices. Excluding the Great financial crisis, one has to go back a few years to find the last time the US posted annual headline deflation.... all the way back to August 1955, or just about the time Marty McFly was trying not to dance with his mother.
Gold Commentary
Gold was rejected right at resistance (1221) for a full three hours on Thursday and then the sellers moved price all the way back down to 1205 in yet another disappointing reversal lower for gold on Thursday. In the end, gold pretty much finished at the same place as it did on Wednesday.
Thursday comes down to the same thing. Gold must close above 1222-1225 to favor higher prices next week and a close below 1187 will favor lower.
To say gold is at a tipping point right now is an understatement. The chart below tells the tale. If we lose 1172-1180 on Friday ON THE LAST DAY OF THE MONTH, we’d have to favor gold moving lower towards 1130-1155 with the potential for more. Even a close below 1187 is not a bullish development.
In summary gold remains in a trade range and refuses to go above 1222-1225. If gold can do that on Friday then we’ll look for 1240-1255 next week. As long as gold is below 1122-1125, it can turn down at any moment. Be careful. THERE’S A LOT OF STOPS below that bull/bear line. And that’s what it is. THE BULL/BEAR LINE at the moment.
What Next?
It takes a close above 1222 to neutralize the short term downtrend.
It comes down to whether we hold 1188. Any break there and 1167-1172 and/or 1140-1155 will become the next targets and gold will most likely be heading lower into March 5th.
It takes a close above 1222 to neutralize the short term downtrend.
It comes down to whether we hold 1188. Any break there and 1167-1172 and/or 1140-1155 will become the next targets and gold will most likely be heading lower into March 5th.
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YOU SHOULD NOT TAKE ANY MATERIAL posted on this BLOG AS RECOMMENDATIONS
TO BUY OR SELL GOLD OR ANY OTHER INVESTMENT VEHICLE LISTED.
TO BUY OR SELL GOLD OR ANY OTHER INVESTMENT VEHICLE LISTED.
Do your own due diligence.
No one knows tomorrow's price or circumstance.
I intend to portray my thoughts and ideas on the subject which may s be used as a tool for the reader.
I do not accept responsibility for being incorrect in my speculations on market trend.
I intend to portray my thoughts and ideas on the subject which may s be used as a tool for the reader.
I do not accept responsibility for being incorrect in my speculations on market trend.
King Regards
