Thursday, March 12, 2015

Gold Trend March 12, 2015



Long Term ~ Bearish-Need a monthly close above 1800 to confirm the bull market 
final phase underway. Need a monthly close above 1560 to neutralize the trend.
Medium Term ~ Bearish– Need a monthly close above 1255-1272 to remove bearish trend.
Intermediate Term ~ Bearish– Need close above 120-122 in GOLD ETF GLD to turn trend up.
Short Term ~ bearish- Need a close above 1171 to return to NEUTRAL.

Initial Resistance 1163-1167 2nd tier 1171-1185
Support 1146-1156 2nd tier 1138-1142


Last update on the website listed resistance at 1172-1182 and the high was 1164. 
Support was listed at 1146-1156 and the low was 1146.


FX Volatility Spikes As More Countries Enter Currency Wars; Euro Surges On Furious Squeeze After Touching 1.04
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 03/12/2015

The global currency wars are getting ever more violent, following yesterday's unexpected entry of Thailand and South Korea, whose central banks were #23 and #24 to ease monetary conditions in 2015, confirming the threat of a global USD margin call is clear and present (see "The Global Dollar Funding Shortage Is Back With A Vengeance And "This Time It's Different"). But the one currency everyone continues to watch is the Euro, which the closer it gets to parity with the USD, the more volatile it becomes, and moments after touching a 1.04-handle coupled with the DXY rising above 100 for the first time in 12 years, the EURUSD saw a huge short squeeze which sent it nearly 150 pips higher to 1.0643, before the selling resumed.


Bank Of Korea Unexpectedly Cuts Interest Rate To Record Low 1.75%, 24th Central Bank To Ease In 2015

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 03/11/2015

The currency war salvos just keep on coming. Moments ago the BOK unexpectedly (the move was predicted by just 2 of 17 economists polled by Bloomberg) cut its policy rate from 2.00% to a record low 1.75%, in what is clearly a full-blown retaliation against the collapse currency of its biggest export competitor, Japan, whose currency has cratered to a level that many in South Korea believe has become a direct subsidy for its competing exports. As such the only question is why the BOK didn't cut earlier. And following the surprise rate cut by Thailand earlier today, the "surprise" South Korean rate cut means there are now 24 easing policy actions by central banks in 2015 alone.

"Monetarism Hasn't Worked Anywhere" - Reality On China, Finally

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 03/11/2015

China remains an export economy no matter how hard they try to convince the world they are moving otherwise. The idea of creating internal “demand” as a means to extricate marginal changes from everybody else is undoubtedly a good idea, even a noble one, but the reality of China as it exists top-down isn’t conducive for such a transformation. Further, that just isn’t realistic under the global conditions that have persisted since the Great Recession was declared over. In that respect, there isn’t much to separate what is occurring now from the Great Recession itself.

China's Latest Spinning Plate: 10 Trillion In Local Government Debt

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 03/11/2015
China is in the midst of attempting to help local governments refinance a mountain of debt, some of which was accumulated off balance sheet via shadow banking conduits at relatively high rates. According to UBS, "Chinese domestic media are saying that the authorities are considering a Chinese "QE" with the central bank funding the purchase of RMB 10 trillion in local government debt."

Danger Down Under — A Brief Look At Australia's Trade Flows

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 03/11/2015

Global growth forecasts are falling and the risk of deflation is rising. As a result, countries that are dependent on commodity exports are especially vulnerable. Australia relies on exports to China. If prices fall and China slows down then Australia will be in big trouble.


Gold Short Term


Price reached our 1142-1146 target yesterday coming in at 1146.50 and a small bounce attempt is underway. Look for resistance at 1163-1167 and 1171-1175. Support is 1142-1146. All trends remain down at the moment. The Nov 13th and Nov 30th lows came in at 1146 and thus 1142-1146 is the final support before the 1130 low of Nov 7th. We do not feel that the 1130 low will hold if tested. Therefore the only place we see for a rebound on the short term is whether we hold 1142-1146.

We still feel new lows are coming but this week could hold at 1142-1146 and bounce back into week end in the 1165-1175 area.

gold hourly price chart



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YOU SHOULD NOT TAKE ANY MATERIAL posted on this BLOG AS RECOMMENDATIONS 
TO BUY OR SELL GOLD OR ANY OTHER INVESTMENT VEHICLE LISTED. 
 Do your own due diligence. 
No one knows tomorrow's price or circumstance. 
 I intend to portray my thoughts and ideas on the subject which may s be used as a tool for the reader. 
I do not accept responsibility for being incorrect in my speculations on market trend. 
 King Regards