Tuesday, March 17, 2015

Gold Trend March 17, 2015

Long Term ~ Bearish-Need a monthly close above 1800 to confirm the bull market 
final phase underway. Need a monthly close above 1560 to neutralize the trend.
Medium Term ~ Bearish– Need a monthly close above 1223-1242 to remove bearish trend.
Intermediate Term ~ Bearish– Need close above 115 in GOLD ETF GLD to turn trend up.
Short Term ~ bearish- Need a close above 1162 to return to NEUTRAL.

Initial Resistance 1155-1162 2nd tier 1171-1177
Support 1142-1148 2nd tier 1123-1133

The big event for this week is the FOMC meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday and of course all markets are focused on what the specific wording will be for the Feds and the factor in which all eyes are upon and that is the interest rate policy that will be forthcoming from this meeting.

During 2014 the trial balloon has been launched by the Feds that the lower interest rates that has been in effect for a Fibonacci 34 years is coming to an end and we are witnessing the transition that comes with this long term change.

There are those in the camp that the Fed will absolutely not raise rates and with those opinions we disagree.

If we look at things in a view from the moon, Paul Volker was the one who brought interest rates to 21% (the century high), Alan Greenspan was the one who brought rates back to the norm, Ben Bernanke was the one who brought rates to a 300 year low and Janet Yellen will be the one who brings them back up.

It is our view that the Fed has absolutely no control over long term rates and they are in essence trend followers. “Fed speak” has us thinking that they are in control but the fact of the matter is the global debt market is so big, and so deep in depth that the Fed follows long term trends. Yes, they can control short term rates and it certainly has some influence. That we are not denying. But overall they do not have control of long term rates and we believe that the cycle of rates has run its course and the future will be of longer term rates beginning its new cycle of higher rates.
To take it further, we actually think the Fed WANTS higher rates for a number of reasons, but that will be for another update.

ODDS FAVOR A SHORT TERM LOW IS HAPPENING ON GOLD and it should move higher from Tuesday or Wednesday's low.  Thus we expect higher short term prices in gold as we come out of the FOMC meeting.

Gold Short Term
Price reached the 1142-1146 target area at 1141.50 on Tuesday. That was the area favored (1142-1146) with the best chance of holding this week based on the 1146 lows established on Nov 13th and 30th of last year. With price at the bottom of the channel line, odds favor a low should develop this week that will take prices higher into the 1st week of April before a resumption of the downtrend continues.
Support is 1142-1146. While it’s the odds favorite for this week’s low it is not impossible for it to give way to a lower level. If it does the other targets for Wednesday will be 1123-1133 as the weekly low. Those are the two points 1142-1146 or 1123-1133 most likely for a low this week.
Odds now favor gold bottoms in line with the short term cycle due this week. From there we’ll look for a bounce into the 1st week of April.

Gold Hourly price chart

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 Do your own due diligence. 
No one knows tomorrow's price or circumstance. 
 I intend to portray my thoughts and ideas on the subject which may s be used as a tool for the reader. 
I do not accept responsibility for being incorrect in my speculations on market trend. 
 King Regards