Thursday, March 19, 2015

Gold Trend March 19, 2015

Long Term ~ Bearish-Need a monthly close above 1800 to confirm the bull market 
final phase underway. Need a monthly close above 1560 to neutralize the trend.
Medium Term ~ Bearish– Need a monthly close above 1223-1242 to remove bearish trend.
Intermediate Term ~ Bearish– Need close above 115 in GOLD ETF GLD to turn trend up.
Short Term ~ Neutral- Short term cycle low most likely in place with rally to April 3rd underway.

Initial Resistance 1175-1182 2nd tier 1193-1198
Support 1155-1162 2nd tier 1142-1148

The last update listed resistance at 1155-1162 and 
2nd tier at 1171-1177 and the high was 1175. 
Support was listed at 1142-1148 and the low was 1147.

"Flexible" Fed Loses "Patience"; Cuts Growth, Inflation Forecasts: Redline Comparison
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 03/18/2015 
Evan as The "boxed-in" Fed nears the vinegar strokes of its easing cycle, today's statement continued to offer something for everyone (hawks, doves, bulls, & bears) to hold onto:



  • *FED SEES 2015 GDP GROWTH OF 2.3%-2.7% VS 2.6%-3% DEC. EST. (dove)

So, despite previous Fed promises, we have seen dismal macro data, no consumption gain from low gas prices, and USD strength headwinds; and yet, as they shift growth expectations in their dot plot, we're supposed to believe that. The bottom line: Fed to Markets: "you're on your own"-ish: uncertainty is back.
With a firm "no comment" Janet Yellen shied away from bursting the bubble in "extremely stretched" Biotech and Social Media stocks, but was forced to admit that "overall measures of equity valuations are on the high side." Then, rather oddly, she notes that The Fed sees unusually low spreads in corporate bond markets... which is odd since they have actually widened dramatically in the last year or so, perhaps signaling just how "high" valuations are in stocks.
The March FOMC statement and projections suggested that September rather than June appears to be the most likely date for the first hike of the fed funds rate. Although the change to the "patient" forward guidance was close to expectations, the shift in the "dot plot" was most consistent with two rather than three 25 basis point hikes to the target range occurring in 2015. In addition, changes to the Committee's economic assessment were a bit more dovish.

On the weekly report we put in BOLD LETTERING that the US Dollar had reached 100 and was the most likely place for a correction to now begin.  After today, that is clearly underway.  It may not last long but the dollar took a big dive today.   
Yesterday’s call for gold to form a short term low on Tuesday/Wednesday and a rally favored in gold coming out of the FOMC meeting did in fact occur and prices ran up to our 2nd tier resistance of 1175.  

Gold Short Term
The 1142-1146 target area that was favored (1142-1146) with the best chance of holding this week’s low seems to have come into play with the 1141.50 low on Tuesday and the favored gold bottom coming out of the FOMC meeting got pretty close to 1st weekly resistance now set at 1175-1181.  That is the area that is the most likely price high for this week and the 2nd target zone would be 1198-1205.  Odds favor it will be the 1st area listed above.
Support on Thursday is the 1155-1162 area and resistance 1175-1182.  The short term trend is now neutral and we need the blue moving average to cross above the green to flip the trend to bullish.  The upper channel line and the 23% Fib retrace is this week’s biggest resistance point.  There was a gap at 1155 today so odds are high that any pullback on Thursday/Friday will hold at or near that area.  In summary, the gold bounce from the FOMC meeting we’ve anticipated is underway.  Now to see if it has staying power as gold needs a close above 1182 to favor higher prices next week.  
gold hourly price chart

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No one knows tomorrow's price or circumstance. 
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