Wednesday, March 25, 2015

Gold Trend March 26, 2015

Long Term ~ Bearish-Need a monthly close above 1800 to confirm the bull market 
final phase underway. Need a monthly close above 1560 to neutralize the trend.
Medium Term ~ Bearish– Need a monthly close above 1223-1242 to remove bearish trend.
Intermediate Term ~ Neutral– Need close above 115 in GOLD ETF GLD to turn trend up.
Short Term ~ Bullish- Short term cycle low most likely in place with rally to April 3rd underway. 
Need to maintain a close above 1162 to stay in bullish mode.

Initial Resistance 1201-1211 2nd tier 1222-1228
Support 1172-1180 2nd tier 1159-1166

The last update listed resistance at 1192-1196 and the high was 1199.  
Support was listed 1172-1180 and the low was 1186.

Strange Facts About America That Most Americans Would Be Shocked To Learn
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 03/25/2015 
Did you know that about one-fourth of the entire global prison population is in the United States?  Did you know that Apple has more money than the U.S. Treasury?  Did you know that if you have no debt and also have 10 dollars in your wallet that you are wealthier than 25 percent of all Americans?  Did you know that by the time an American child reaches the age of 18, that child will have seen approximately 40,000 murders on television?  There are some things that are great about the United States, and there are definitely some things that are not so great.  Once upon a time we were the most loved and most respected nation on the entire planet, but those days are long gone.

Gold traded one dollar higher from the Tuesday low and one dollar higher from the Tuesday high giving us an outside day and leaving the downside potential open now that we reached 1200 (1199.72 spot).  Regardless, the next resistance is not until 1205.  The question is whether gold has begun a pullback in the short term uptrend.  The last few days have been a struggle as gold works off short term oversold oscillators and tries to overcome 1200. 
Its time to get a bit cautious as the price rise for this week either completed on Wednesday or should do so Thursday morning.  Overall, the short term high should not develop until next week. 

The French now require banks to report to the government financial police anyone depositing or withdrawing €10,000 over one month. The United States is also moving in the same direction. The Justice Department wants banks to report to the police if you withdraw $5,000 in cash. Already it appears that deposits or withdraws of cash of just $3,000 are being reported to the IRS. Stores or business depositing cash are now being charged a fee to deposit cash.
....and from Martin Armstrong
The governments are desperately using terrorism as the excuse to hide their war on cash. They are trying to eliminate money all together to force 120% tax collection. There is no reform contemplated, just raise taxes all the time. There is no end game here that has anything to do with preserving our freedom and way of life.

On the financial front, China is moving strategically to create an alternative to the dollar-based world where it controls the World Bank and IMF. The US government has suffered a setback in its geopolitical financial ambitions on every front with Obama at the helm. Now the UK, Germany, France and Italy all have agreed to participate in the new Chinese Development Bank aIIb. The bank is regarded by Washington as a rival to the World Bank. Australia and South Korea are also likely to join the Chinese.
China has been doing a debt swap to reduce the high debt levels at high interest rates in its lower government levels. Local governments will be allowed to swap 1 trillion yuan ($160 billion) of their existing high-interest debts for lower-cost bonds. Such swaps could become a feature of China’s fiscal landscape over the next few years, given that local debts may have reached as much as 30 trillion yuan, or 47% of GDP.

Gold Short Term
Gold basically reached 1200 but missed the 1205-1211 target and the forecast for options expiration for gold to reach 1200 came to pass with an 1199.72 print in spot.  We still need to reach 1205-1211 to complete.  We need to be cautious however.  We can expect to find rally points and expectations for price moves, but we should not expect perfection in price and time.  So we need to be cautious on a short term basis. 
If we don’t get 1205 in the morning I’ll be tightening my stop on the website trade page where we are long gold from 1159 on a trade.  Since it’s a short term trade,  I’ll soon look for an exit. 
 But that doesn't mean that gold can’t rally to the 2nd resistance target of 1222-1225.  The situation brewing is that the FEDS WANT THE USD TO CORRECT ---- and that means that gold has a chance of turning bullish with this years seasonal strength (which begins around now and into Mid May.  
Its been holding the Fib 23% Retrace at 1180 but that won’t last forever.   We’ve been favoring the 1200 area (1205-1211) but we must get above this average here, and like I said, soon.  Should we pullback instead here back to the channel line, and the 1180 area (also the 2013 low) doesn’t hold, then look 1172 to offer support on Thursday.  In summary, Gold has to deliver here short term.  From what I was told, options expiration does not end until the Thursday trade.  
Odds favor 1205-1211 should be the high this week.  We can’t eliminate 1222-1225 but for the moment, like we said, we think that’s next weeks action.  

Gold price chart since the Fomc low

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 Do your own due diligence. 
No one knows tomorrow's price or circumstance. 
 I intend to portray my thoughts and ideas on the subject which may s be used as a tool for the reader. 
I do not accept responsibility for being incorrect in my speculations on market trend. 
 King Regards