Long Term ~ Bearish-Need a monthly close above 1800 to confirm the bull market
final phase underway. Need a monthly close above 1560 to neutralize the trend.
Medium Term ~ Bearish– Need a monthly close above 1223-1242 to remove bearish trend.
Intermediate Term ~ Neutral– did not quite reach bullish yet and time grows short.
Short Term ~ Bullish- Short term cycle has met targets 1205-1211 and 1222-1225.
Initial Resistance 1201-1211 2nd tier 1222-1228
Support 1172-1180 2nd tier 1159-1166
The last update listed resistance at 1201-1204 and 2nd tier 1222-1228
Medium Term ~ Bearish– Need a monthly close above 1223-1242 to remove bearish trend.
Intermediate Term ~ Neutral– did not quite reach bullish yet and time grows short.
Short Term ~ Bullish- Short term cycle has met targets 1205-1211 and 1222-1225.
Initial Resistance 1201-1211 2nd tier 1222-1228
Support 1172-1180 2nd tier 1159-1166
The last update listed resistance at 1201-1204 and 2nd tier 1222-1228
and the high was 1220.
Support was listed 1172-1180 and the low was 1194.Overview
Today’s gold trade reached 1st target 1205-1211 and within 3 dollars of the 2nd target 1222-1225 (1220). It important to note that the move from 1205 to 1219 was only 20 minutes but it did just miss the 2nd target. By the close today, gold had returned to 1204 at the 1st target.
Did we just see the spike high for the week ? Most likely yes in odds, but there are no absolutes.
Gold should play at the 1200 area on Friday with a plus or minus 12 dollar range. In other words, they will throw it at the wall and see what sticks. Odds favor that Friday will be the fight for 1200 with a gold try on each side to push it 10-12 bucks on either side.
Options expiration ended right where it should, within 3 dollars of 1200 where the control boyz could make the most money on their calls and puts.
The key now is whether gold can maintain support at the 1st target area near 1200 and make another attempt above 1211? Friday will try some type of attempt and of course the bears want to see if they can take it below 1200 for the weekly close.
With yet another war underway (don’t ask, I’ve lost count) just next door from Saudi Arabia, that new king and US ally is being tested.
When we put it all together we can give you a bunch of shocking headlines but things are getting so complex that it probably better to be fully focused on the chart.
In summary as we head into Friday, we enter it right at 1st target resistance 1205-1212 and with the intra week high at 1220 (a hair from 2nd target).
It’s near the end of the month, April futures rolls over to June by Monday so it’s in the process already. Today’s spike may have been the shorts covering in panic and with the situation going on in the mid-east, the one thing to watch to get a metal clue------ IS THE US DOLLAR.
Most conflicts have had a dollar rise since 2011, and not a gold one. While that doesn’t guarantee one, it is the preferred result at the moment because that is what has been happening. When we see different then we’ll begin to favor that.
Keep in mind that the current short term cycle ends April 3rd (plus or minus 72 hours). That means that the window for a turn opens on Wednesday of next week and it also means that gold can still move higher next week before a meaningful pullback begins.
In sum, Friday is probably a trade range day if we don’t see some major escalation in something tomorrow. Any pullback from here should get one more attempt next week for a peak and then a pullback will be favored into mid April.
A final word, April to Mid May is usually a strong seasonal time for gold. Any pullback int0 1172 would be an interesting place for support from a trade re-entry point. I’ll try and hone in this weekend.
The key targets in price 1st and 2nd, were reached for the week. We did not think the move to 1220 was going to happen until next week and that 1205-1211 would be it this week. Again, gold traded above 1211 for 10 minutes and above 1205 for 20. Nevertheless, it did change my pullback parameters and I’ll review them Sunday night.
WITH THE STOCK MARKET PUKING AT THE END OF THE QUARTER AND THE US DOLLAR’S BIG PULLBACK (we did get bearish last Sunday night on the weekly update) it is not out of the question for gold to maintain strength.
Odds favor the real action is next week and Friday is an 1192-1212 affair on Friday.
Gold Short Term
Gold basically reached 1200 but missed the 1205-1211 target and the forecast for options expiration for gold to reach 1200 came to pass with an 1199.72 print in spot. We still need to reach 1205-1211 to complete. We need to be cautious however. We can expect to find rally points and expectations for price moves, but we should not expect perfection in price and time. So we need to be cautious on a short term basis.
If we don’t get 1205 in the morning I’ll be tightening my stop on the website trade page where we are long gold from 1159 on a trade. Since it’s a short term trade, I’ll soon look for an exit.
But that doesn't mean that gold can’t rally to the 2nd resistance target of 1222-1225. The situation brewing is that the FEDS WANT THE USD TO CORRECT ---- and that means that gold has a chance of turning bullish with this years seasonal strength (which begins around now and into Mid May.
Its been holding the Fib 23% Retrace at 1180 but that won’t last forever. We’ve been favoring the 1200 area (1205-1211) but we must get above this average here, and like I said, soon. Should we pullback instead here back to the channel line, and the 1180 area (also the 2013 low) doesn’t hold, then look 1172 to offer support on Thursday. In summary, Gold has to deliver here short term. From what I was told, options expiration does not end until the Thursday trade.
Odds favor 1205-1211 should be the high this week. We can’t eliminate 1222-1225 but for the moment, like we said, we think that’s next weeks’ action.
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YOU SHOULD NOT TAKE ANY MATERIAL posted on this BLOG AS RECOMMENDATIONS
TO BUY OR SELL GOLD OR ANY OTHER INVESTMENT VEHICLE LISTED.
TO BUY OR SELL GOLD OR ANY OTHER INVESTMENT VEHICLE LISTED.
Do your own due diligence.
No one knows tomorrow's price or circumstance.
I intend to portray my thoughts and ideas on the subject which may s be used as a tool for the reader.
I do not accept responsibility for being incorrect in my speculations on market trend.
I intend to portray my thoughts and ideas on the subject which may s be used as a tool for the reader.
I do not accept responsibility for being incorrect in my speculations on market trend.
King Regards
