Long Term ~ Bearish-Need a monthly close above 1800 to confirm the bull market
final phase underway. Need a monthly close above 1560 to neutralize the trend.
Medium Term ~ Bearish– Need a monthly close above 1223-1242 to remove bearish trend.
Intermediate Term ~ Neutral– did not quite reach bullish yet and time grows short.
Short Term ~ Neutral == Short term cycle in pullback at back to neutral.
Next cycle due April 4th (plus or minus 72 hours)Medium Term ~ Bearish– Need a monthly close above 1223-1242 to remove bearish trend.
Intermediate Term ~ Neutral– did not quite reach bullish yet and time grows short.
Short Term ~ Neutral == Short term cycle in pullback at back to neutral.
Initial Resistance 1196-1206 2nd tier 1211-1215
Support 1172-1180 2nd tier 1159-1166
Overview Short Term
After gold peaked at 2nd tier last week (1222-1228) with a 1220.40 print in Futures and 1219.75 spot, a pullback to an important price point has taken place. While it certainly can be a low with a bounce back to 1196, I’m not so sure gold can get beyond 1198-1205 just yet.
The problem is the pullback has been nearing the right price targets, but it’s doing so in a weak fashion and Gold already reached slightly under 1183 already on Monday.
Recall we just finished Options Expiration at 1200 on the 26th and with that one spike to 1219 it has been pure selling all the way down to today’s low.
Keep in mind that April Futures are coming off the boards and Tuesday is the last day of trade in April. Thus over the last week, the rollover to June Futures has transpired.
Not only is it the last trade day of the month but it is also the last trade day of the Quarter. Will the market allow for a quarterly close above 1200? We’ll find out on Tuesday.
But there are other things to watch out for at the end of the week.
Remember…..besides the normal board marking for quarter end in stocks for gold delivery,
it is unemployment week. This report has been the biggest gold price mover of the month on many occasions. We have to be ready for anything as they probably want to clear the stops on both sides with their patented move 10 dollar either way (maybe more) on the news first to get the riff-raff out of the way.
To make this even dicier, markets are closed or only open for very limited hours until a few hours after the unemployment report as this is Good Friday holiday.
Along with this you can be assured volumes in all markets will be relatively low and fall of even further by Thursday... and by Friday, there will be no one around.
always interesting when they do this on good Friday... and not move the report up to Thursday, or back to the following week.
The chart below shows the SUPPORT that GOLD MUST HOLD in the 1160-1180 area. When we are below 1172-1182 on a CLOSING BASIS we are under the 2014 closing price for gold and that means that New lows are favored. That Yellow line at 1172-1182 is a bull/bear pivot line for the YEAR. Keep that in mind. The 2015 downtrend line near 1172 and the 2014 close at 1182 is the current bull/bear line to watch.
Gold Short Term
Gold’s pullback has been hard and fast. That worries me that the 1220 high on Thursday was it. It doesn’t match with the short term cycle window but remember that when we discuss and measure cycle windows (one standard deviation) we have to remember, there is always an OUTLIER POINT (High or low) that happens outside the cycle window now and then. The other reason is that peak and reversal at 1220 is the third time this happens for gold
The pullback so far can either hold here at the 1178-1182 area (also the 2014 low) and if it doesn’t hold, then look to 1173 to offer support on Tuesday.
It comes down to whether the Fib 23% retrace line 1181 provides support, or if a retest of the 2015 Downtrend Channel line takes place along with the Green 1600 Hour moving average at 1172 takes place. Those are the two most likely support points on Tuesday.
On the upside, resistance is 1196-1206 and then 1211-1215.
Remember it’s the last day of the QUARTER ON TUESDAY. That means it could be an up and down day but odds favor they’ll try and hold price under 1205 for the quarterly close.
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YOU SHOULD NOT TAKE ANY MATERIAL posted on this BLOG AS RECOMMENDATIONS
TO BUY OR SELL GOLD OR ANY OTHER INVESTMENT VEHICLE LISTED.
TO BUY OR SELL GOLD OR ANY OTHER INVESTMENT VEHICLE LISTED.
Do your own due diligence.
No one knows tomorrow's price or circumstance.
I intend to portray my thoughts and ideas on the subject which may s be used as a tool for the reader.
I do not accept responsibility for being incorrect in my speculations on market trend.
I intend to portray my thoughts and ideas on the subject which may s be used as a tool for the reader.
I do not accept responsibility for being incorrect in my speculations on market trend.
King Regards
