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Friday, April 10, 2015

Gold Trend April 10, 2015



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Long Term ~ Bearish-Need a monthly close above 1800 to confirm the bull market final phase underway. Need a monthly close above 1560 to neutralize the trend.
Medium Term ~ Bearish– Need a monthly close above 1223-1242 to remove bearish trend.
Intermediate Term ~ Neutral– trading range.
Short Term ~ Neutral/Bearish – Next short term cycle underway until April 18th 
(plus or minus 72 hours).  Need a close above 1229 to favor higher cycle.

Initial Resistance 1205-1212 2nd tier 1219-1226
Support 1188-1195 2nd tier 1172-1182


Last update listed resistance at 1212-1222 and the high was 1202.  
Support was listed at 1188-1195 and the low was 1192.60.

Summary
Everything is continuing on track for a major global event of collapse.  The collapse will be a biblical jubilee but instead of debt forgiveness, it will be debt default.  With these things come civil unrest on a grand scale and eventually war between nations.  We on a full collision force with our future and as we close the week, its important to note that gold is going to have an important role in this coming event. 
At the NOW moment, the trend is still down on all fronts for gold.  Price has risen from the LAST FOMC meeting and now it must close above the uptrend channel line to get in order to get confirmation that the bounce becomes the April/May seasonal will develop. 
Odds favor its just a seasonal bounce.    While they are odds ------ there have been yearly lows established in this time frame.  But they have been during BULL trends not bear ones. 
On average and generally speaking, the chart below shows the seasonal average over the long term.   If gold starts closing below the GREEN YEARLY BULL/BEAR line, then we have to favor the downside into and around the 18th of the month. 
seasonal price chart
Gold Cycles
There is still no definitive decision in the short term cycles trend.  That means we can go either way still.  We’ve discussed a close below 1192 as favoring the downside on this channel and the Wednesday low was 1192.60.  A close below 1188-1192 Friday favors lower prices into next week. 
No matter what -- the bottom line is GOLD MUST RE-ENTER THE UPTREND CHANNEL to get back to the upside.   Otherwise the trend remains down and prices can return right back to the 1172-1182 area and retest last week’s low.  The 1172-1182 area is the 2013 low and 2014 closing price (1183).  If we lose that yearly support and close below 1163 odds favor 1140 or a new yearly low into the next cycle due April 18th (plus or minus 72 hours).   The bottom line is gold must get above 1229 to confirm the blue cycle was a low and is going higher.  Any close below the 1188-1192 area turns the odds to lower on this cycle.
  Gold Cycles
Gold Short term
The 1205-1212 area is resistance for Friday and on a weekly basis, the key is whether gold gets above 1229 as it would favor a quick move to 1244.  On the downside, gold is trying to hold the uptrend line from this year’s low.  If we don’t hold here look for price to move to the 1172-1182 area where gold will try and make a short term low.  Any close below 1158-1163 favors new yearly lows.
 Gold hourly price chart
M Samer Al Reifae
Official Representative in Romania at HiWayFX
http://lordoftruth.blogspot.com
samer@hiwayfxglobal.com
+40 734 277 757

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YOU SHOULD NOT TAKE ANY MATERIAL posted on this BLOG AS RECOMMENDATIONS 
TO BUY OR SELL GOLD OR ANY OTHER INVESTMENT VEHICLE LISTED. 
 Do your own due diligence. 
No one knows tomorrow's price or circumstance. 
 I intend to portray my thoughts and ideas on the subject which may s be used as a tool for the reader. 
I do not accept responsibility for being incorrect in my speculations on market trend. 
 King Regards
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