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Tuesday, April 14, 2015

Gold Trend April 15, 2015



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Long Term ~ Bearish-Need a monthly close above 1800 to confirm the bull market final phase underway. Need a monthly close above 1560 to neutralize the trend.
Medium Term ~ Bearish– Need a monthly close above 1255 to remove bearish trend.
Intermediate Term ~ Neutral– trading range.
Short Term ~ Bearish – Next short term cycle underway until April 18th (plus or minus 72 hours).

Initial Resistance 1198-1207 2nd tier 1219-1226
Support 1178-1185 2nd tier 1162-1172

Last update listed resistance at 1205-1212 and the high was 1201.  
Support was listed at 1188-1195 and 2nd tier at 1172-1182 and the low was 1182.

Technical Gold
What is most important about Monday was gold once again tested the yearly Pivot zone of 1172-1182 when it traded at 1182 prior to the Comex trade day.  Once again the gold price turned right back up and moved back to 1200 over the next few hours.  This back and forth that is going on is all part of the battle for control of the gold price at one of the more important trend lines of this 21st century uptrend in gold.  The chart below clearly illustrates the importance of the line and the bars confirm the markets recognition of this line with the tight bars and how the last 5 bars have touched the line.  The last bar is very tight in range.  That favors the next big move in gold should not be far away.
Gold Monthly price chart with support and resistance lines
The next move should resolve pretty soon.  Once it does, the trend should become definitive as gold will be heading for 1000-1100 if we lose this trend line on the chart above.  If we have any upside left, we need to get weekly closes above 1225, then 1255 then 1272.  Until then we should remain extremely cautious that gold (and silver) don’t need much to get pushed off the cliff.     

Gold Cycles
The next short term cycle is due April 18th (plus or minus 72 hours).  Odds favor we have gone through a pullback cycle and the “window” for this next short term cycle begins Wednesday.  Thus a short term price low is favored between now and Monday.  
One final note:  April 20th is also a day to watch.  That won’t happen until NEXT Monday.   Keep in mind this tight range is from that monthly chart at the top of the report as gold works out whether the line holds or not.  ANY CLOSE ABOVE THE DUAL BLACK RESISTANCE line will favor a move to 1234 as first target and then 1245 as the 2nd. Until then, remain cautious.  With the cycle window opening up and price probe of 1172-1182 again should be watched carefully for a potential short term low.  
     gold cycles

Gold Short term
The 1205-1212 area is resistance for Wednesday and on a weekly basis, the key is whether gold gets above 1225 as it would favor a quick move to the 50 day average at 1234.  On the downside, gold is trying to hold the yearly support zone 1172-1182.  We discussed Monday night that the think downtrend line would most likely provide initial support and the price bounce on it turned out right on the line! 
Any close below 1192 will favor 1172-1185.  That thick 2015 downtrend line is the other area that gold will most likely provide at least INITIAL support should gold lose 1192.  If the price of gold moves above 1212 on Wednesday then 1219-1225 will come into play.  
 Gold price chart

M Samer Al Reifae
Official Representative in Romania at HiWayFX
http://lordoftruth.blogspot.com
samer@hiwayfxglobal.com
+40 734 277 757

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YOU SHOULD NOT TAKE ANY MATERIAL posted on this BLOG AS RECOMMENDATIONS 
TO BUY OR SELL GOLD OR ANY OTHER INVESTMENT VEHICLE LISTED. 
 Do your own due diligence. 
No one knows tomorrow's price or circumstance. 
 I intend to portray my thoughts and ideas on the subject which may s be used as a tool for the reader. 
I do not accept responsibility for being incorrect in my speculations on market trend. 
 King Regards