Tuesday, May 26, 2015

Gold Trend May 27, 2015


Long Term ~ Bearish- Need a monthly close above 1800 to confirm the bull market 
final phase underway. Need a monthly close above 1560 to neutralize the trend.
Medium Term ~ Bearish  Need a monthly close above 1255 to remove bearish trend.
Intermediate Term ~ Bearish– Resistance for this week 1234-1244.
Short Term ~Bearish–Short term cycles peaked right on the 18th ideal day 
and gold has turned down.  Next Cycle turn is June 2nd (plus or minus 72 hours)


Initial Resistance 1193-1198 2nd tier 1205-1212
Support 1172-1182 2nd tier 1158-1164

Gold price settles at a more than two-week low
San Francisco (May 26)  Gold futures finished lower on Tuesday, with upbeat U.S. data on new-home sales and consumer confidence helping to further strengthen the dollar and push prices for the metal to their lowest settlement in just over two weeks.
Gold for June delivery was down -1.44% as it dropped $17.10, or 1.4%, to settle at $1,186.90 an ounce on Comex. The most-active contract hasn’t settled at a level this low since May 11.
July silver was down -2.00% as it lost 30.5 cents, or 1.8%, to end at $16.746 an ounce.
“The consumer confidence and U.S. home sales data ignited the selloff in gold on Tuesday.
Sales of new homes in the U.S. climbed 6.8% in April to an annual rate of 517,000, while consumer confidence in May rose to 95.4 from 94.3 in April. Orders for durable U.S. goods fell, but the core capital-goods number, which can be viewed as a proxy for business investment, climbed 1% in April.
The day’s mostly upbeat economic data provided support for the dollar up +0.92% and helped to dull investment demand for gold. Commodities priced in dollars often trade inversely with the dollar, as moves in the U.S. unit can influence the attractiveness of those commodities to holders of other currencies.
Meanwhile, Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen’s comments have “really inflated the sentiment among dollar bulls, who are feeling very confident with their long position that the rate hike will finally take place this year,” he said.

Gold Short Term
Prices ripped through the top of the wedge or Pennant line and are now at the bottom line which also represents the 2015 weak uptrend line.  If we lose this line then the 1172-1182 yearly support line we have often discussed will be the next target price tests.  Any close below 1167 favors the 1140-1150 area.  Resistance is now 1193-1198 and 1205-1212. The short term trend is bearish at the moment but the key will be if that lower line gives way.  That will open up the lower price potentials we listed above.    
 
What Next?
All of our cautions about the situation caused us to do the difficult thing and not chase gold when it broke above 1225 on short term trades.  The move lasted a full day on the ideal peak short term cycle date on the 18th.   
The next short term cycle turn is due June 2nd (plus or minus 72 hours).  Odds favor for gold to remain under pressure or range bound until then.  Resistance should be strong near  1198-1205.
If we lose the lower trend line on the short term chart then 1172-1182 should be tested again.

Bottom Line
IT TAKES A CLOSE ABOVE 1245 in order to favor higher prices on a medium term basis. 
It is very possible that Gold makes a low in June and then begins a rally that will last through the summer.  Of course, that is JUST WHEN EVERYONE will be looking for lower prices.   



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M Samer Al Reifae
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http://lordoftruth.blogspot.com
samer@hiwayfxglobal.com
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TO BUY OR SELL GOLD OR ANY OTHER INVESTMENT VEHICLE LISTED. 
 Do your own due diligence. 
No one knows tomorrow's price or circumstance. 
 I intend to portray my thoughts and ideas on the subject which may s be used as a tool for the reader. 
I do not accept responsibility for being incorrect in my speculations on market trend. 
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