Long Term ~ Bearish- Need a monthly close above 1800 to confirm the bull market
final phase underway. Need a monthly close above 1560 to neutralize the trend.
Medium Term ~ Bearish Need a monthly close above 1255 to remove bearish trend.
Intermediate Term ~ Bearish– Need close above 1222-1232 for higher TREND.
Short Term ~Bearish–Short term cycles peaked right on the 18th ideal day
and gold has turned down. Next Cycle turn is June 2nd (plus or minus 72 hours)
Initial Resistance 1193-1198 2nd tier 1205-1212
Support 1172-1182 2nd tier 1158-1164
The last update listed resistance at 1193-1198 and the high was 1191.
Support was listed at 1172-1182 and the low was 1183.
Why is this Sovereign Debt Crisis collapse different from 1931?
When the governments of the world defaulted on their debts in 1931, there were no pension funds. Government has exempted itself from all prudent reason for you take the state operated pension funds, like Social Security in the USA, where 100% of the money is in government bonds. They may have no intention of defaulting, but very few government have ever paid off their debts in the end.
Then there are states who regulate pension funds requiring more than 80% to be in government bonds. A Sovereign Debt Default this time around will wipe out socialism, yet the bulk of the people are clueless not merely about the risk, but the ramifications. Younger generations do not save to support their parents for that was government’s job post-Great Depression. Socialism has altered thousands of years of family structure following the ranting of Karl Marx. This has been one giant lab experiment that ended badly in China and Russia and is coming to a local government near you.
So this time it is SUBSTANTIALLY DIFFERENT. Government is now on the hook, which is part of the reason why they are moving to eliminate cash to prevent bank runs and to force society to comply with their demands. This is why we have people like Gordon Brown, who sold Britain’s gold reserves in 1999 making the low, claiming now that eliminating cash will eliminate the boom and bust of the business cycle. Let’s face it, Gordon Brown has NEVER been right when it comes to politics, not even once, and he has been the worst manager of finance that Britain has ever known. He sold the low in gold and now he presumes he can fulfill Marxism by eliminating cash. He postulates ideas that are theory without any support whatsoever. We cannot afford more arrogant people like this in politics who believe they have a right to experiment with society.
This time it is very different. They have wiped out society placing the entire scheme of socialism as a terrible nightmare that will end badly, and they have ruined the social family structure disarming people that for thousands of years was our very means of self-sufficient survival. These clown have set the tone for wiping out the dreams they sold the elderly, all while hunting taxes and causing job creation to implode as the youth has been converted into the lost generation. All this with pretend good intentions. Can you imagine the damage to society if they had actually intended this mess? They have lied to themselves and to the people. We have to crash and burn – that part is inevitable. Only when the economy turns down will we then argue over solutions.
Gold Short Term
As discussed last night losing the pennant line would favor 1172-1182 and we hit 1183 so far. We’re arriving at the last UPTREND line for 2015. Below 1180 means we are below the 2014 close so it’s a highly sensitive area. As you can see on the chart below the “SITUATION.”
We had a failed selloff attempt going into the week of March 23rd which was the ideal week for the medium term cycle and price reversed back above the key 1172-1182 area. Since that time, there have been 8 attempts to force a sell off. ALL HAVE FAILED !
However, each time it weakens gold and right now gold is very weak. There is nothing to say it won’t get a shot of adrenaline in the arm and reverse higher again from this area. If it happens to hold, a rally into Mid June and possibly July can take place. If we lose this area, then it is possible to move lower into the week of June 16th-23rd. Any close below 1163 would favor lower prices into 1150 and potentially lower. The one holdout here is if the next short term cycle DOESN’T invert then we should be near a low in time. Let’s go to the cycle chart.
What Next?
Resistance should be strong near 1198-1205.
We are testing 1172-1182 again. A close below 1163-1167 favors lower towards 1150 and potentially more. Until we get back above 1205 the situation favors the bears.
The next short term cycle turn is due June 2nd (plus or minus 72 hours). that is the one hope for the gold bulls----a low arriving between May 31st and June 5th.
This upcoming cycle however will only have a 65% chance of turn. (Once every 4 months) the chance of inversion is greater than 25%.
Bottom Line
There should be a GOOD MOVE BEGINNING SOMETIME IN JUNE. However, direction can still go either way. We're watching for clues.
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M Samer Al Reifae
Official Representative in Romania at HiWayFX
http://lordoftruth.blogspot.com
samer@hiwayfxglobal.com
+40 734 277 757
Official Representative in Romania at HiWayFX
http://lordoftruth.blogspot.com
samer@hiwayfxglobal.com
+40 734 277 757
YOU ARE NEVER LEFT ALONE
YOU SHOULD NOT TAKE ANY MATERIAL posted on this BLOG AS RECOMMENDATIONS
TO BUY OR SELL GOLD OR ANY OTHER INVESTMENT VEHICLE LISTED.
TO BUY OR SELL GOLD OR ANY OTHER INVESTMENT VEHICLE LISTED.
Do your own due diligence.
No one knows tomorrow's price or circumstance.
I intend to portray my thoughts and ideas on the subject which may s be used as a tool for the reader.
I do not accept responsibility for being incorrect in my speculations on market trend.
I intend to portray my thoughts and ideas on the subject which may s be used as a tool for the reader.
I do not accept responsibility for being incorrect in my speculations on market trend.
King Regards
