Long Term ~ Bearish- Need a monthly close above 1800 to confirm the bull market
final phase underway. Need a monthly close above 1560 to neutralize the trend.
Medium Term ~ Bearish Need a monthly close above 1255 to remove bearish trend.
Intermediate Term ~ Bearish– Need close above 1222-1232 for higher TREND.
Short Term ~Bearish–Short term cycles peaked right on the 18th ideal day
and gold has turned down. Next Cycle turn is June 2nd (plus or minus 72 hours)
Initial Resistance 1193-1198 2nd tier 1205-1212
Support 1172-1182 2nd tier 1158-1164
The G-7's Problem: Can the World Deal With a Greek Default?
The world’s top finance ministers and central-bank chiefs meeting in Dresden this week are already struggling to stick to an agenda set by their German hosts that doesn’t mention Greece.
In a sign of deepening global concern over the country’s stumbling bailout talks, U.S. Treasury Secretary Jacob L. Lew spoke with Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras on Wednesday for the second time in less than a week and told a London audience that “everyone has to double down” on reaching an accord. European Commission Vice President Valdis Dombrovskis denied a Greek government statement that a deal is close.
The Group of Seven meeting starting on Wednesday will officially focus on big-picture themes of economic growth, tax evasion and strengthening the global financial architecture. Yet the most pressing matter for many of the policy makers attending is whether Greece can stay in the euro, and whether the world can handle the consequences if it can’t.
Global trade just saw its sharpest drop since the financial crisis
The CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis, a division of the Ministry of Economic Affairs, just released its latest Merchandise World Trade Monitor, which covers global import volumes as well as global export volumes. The index dropped 0.1% in March to 136.5, after having already dropped 0.7% in February, and 1.7% in January. The index, which was set at 100 in 2005, is now down 2.5% from the peak of 140.0 in December. That 3.5-point decline was the sharpest since the Financial Crisis.
Tomorrow is last trading day of May, Monday first trading day of June. Monday opens the week and the new month. To make it really complicate, tomorrow is Friday, and US Q1 GDP (est. -0.9%) is due for tomorrow, an important figure influencing US$ Euro, stocks and metals short term direction/swings directly... usually.
If Friday figures release a sell-off or are a non-event and current week closes below 1178-1182, gold could decline some towards 1150-1172.
Gold Short Term
As discussed last night losing the pennant line would favor 1172-1182 and we hit 1180 so far. We’re arriving at the last UPTREND line for 2015. Below 1180 means we are below the 2014 close so it’s a highly sensitive area. As you can see on the chart below the “SITUATION.”
We had a failed selloff attempt going into the week of March 23rd which was the ideal week for the medium term cycle and price reversed back above the key 1172-1182 area. Since that time, there have been 8 attempts to force a sell off. ALL HAVE FAILED !
However, each time it weakens gold and right now gold is very weak. There is nothing to say it won’t get a shot of adrenaline in the arm and reverse higher again from this area. If it happens to hold, a rally into Mid June and possibly July can take place. If we lose this area, then it is possible to move lower into the week of June 16th-23rd. Any close below 1163 would favor lower prices into 1150 and potentially lower. The one holdout here is if the next short term cycle DOESN’T invert then we should be near a low in time. Let’s go to the cycle chart.
What Next?
Resistance should be strong near 1198-1205.
We are testing 1172-1182 again. A close below 1163-1167 favors lower towards 1150 and potentially more. Until we get back above 1205 the situation favors the bears.
The next short term cycle turn is due June 2nd (plus or minus 72 hours). that is the one hope for the gold bulls---a low arriving between May 31st and June 5th.
This upcoming cycle however will only have a 65% chance of turn. (Once every 4 months) the chance of inversion is greater than 25%.
Bottom Line
There should be a GOOD MOVE BEGINNING SOMETIME IN JUNE. However, direction can still go either way. We're watching for clues.
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M Samer Al Reifae
Official Representative in Romania at HiWayFX
http://lordoftruth.blogspot.com
samer@hiwayfxglobal.com
+40 734 277 757
Official Representative in Romania at HiWayFX
http://lordoftruth.blogspot.com
samer@hiwayfxglobal.com
+40 734 277 757
YOU ARE NEVER LEFT ALONE
YOU SHOULD NOT TAKE ANY MATERIAL posted on this BLOG AS RECOMMENDATIONS
TO BUY OR SELL GOLD OR ANY OTHER INVESTMENT VEHICLE LISTED.
TO BUY OR SELL GOLD OR ANY OTHER INVESTMENT VEHICLE LISTED.
Do your own due diligence.
No one knows tomorrow's price or circumstance.
I intend to portray my thoughts and ideas on the subject which may s be used as a tool for the reader.
I do not accept responsibility for being incorrect in my speculations on market trend.
I intend to portray my thoughts and ideas on the subject which may s be used as a tool for the reader.
I do not accept responsibility for being incorrect in my speculations on market trend.
King Regards
