Thursday, March 3, 2016

Gold Trend March 3, 2016

Long Term ~ Bearish BUT READY TO TURN NEUTRAL- Need two monthly closes above 1322 to FULLY neutralize the trend.
Medium Term ~ Neutral-Need a monthly close above 1255 and for the blue moving average to move above red on weekly chart to turn the medium term trend to bullish. This would be first time since March 22, 2013 when gold was at 1600.
Intermediate Term ~ Bullish– The intermediate term remains in bullish mode and it takes a weekly close below 1180 to neutralize the uptrend.
Short Term ~Bullish- The short term trends remain bullish. Look for support near 1202-1212.

Initial Resistance 1242-1246 2nd tier 1255-1262
Support 1211-1222 2nd tier 1189-1202


Gold Short Term

We tested 1190 so far on this pullback and since then it has been a choppy and overlapping wave back up. As you know, choppy patterns usually are indicative of a trend that is more often than not, likely to break down. With that said, it is not impossible for it to MORPH impulsively if we close above 1242-1245 and shoot back up to the 1265-1275 area.
Then we shot up to 1240, only to come back to 1202 before the move back to 1222 area. Support remains near 1180-1190. As long as we stay above 1211-1217, the overall short term trend will be up. One other significant point to watch is the green 233 hour moving average. A daily close below 1222 would be a caution flag for the short term.
A close below 1211 and odds favor we test the 1190 area. On the upside, if we get above 1242-1245, odds favor higher towards 1265-1275. Monthly resistance is 1309-1322 and monthly support is 1166-1172.



Gold Short Term Cycles

The next Cycle is due March 9th (plus or minus 72 hours). Our last update had the odds as moving higher after Feb 25th. Although it has been choppy and overlapping it has continued to move higher since the low was established at 1190. The key now is gold needs to break above that resistance line we have been fighting for the past 10 days. The window for the next cycle opens on Monday. Friday has the NFP report and while the past it has not been good for gold, the last one was a barnburner higher. It could very well be so again this week on Friday. As long as we remain above 1222 on a closing basis, the trend is favored higher.



What Next?

Short term Cycles are still up but VOLITILITY IS VERY STRONG. The 1172-1192 area is weekly support and at 1212-1222. Resistance is 1238-1246 and 1265-1275. Gold has somewhat pulled back into the blue cycle and the trend still looks higher at the moment into next week. But be careful of the NFP report on Friday.
Any pullback to 1150-1180 would seem to be a gift at the moment.
At the moment, things are getting dicier and dicier on all global fronts.

Bottom Line

Is the final low in gold in place? Perhaps. The two most likely places for the gold low was in (December 2015) or the ideal time of March of 2016 where it will be a Fibonacci 55 months since the gold high in August 2011 took place. So for the low has been December. At the moment we can't rule out another low in March. We would like to see February close above 1255 for the next sign that gold is indeed bottoming.

It would be wise to begin accumulate physical gold at these levels.


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 M Samer Al Reifae
Official HiWayFX Representative in Romania
samer@hiwayfx.com
+40 734 277 757
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