CME GROUP NEWS
With a number of physical commodity markets tracking higher this morning and a weaker US Dollar, gold should be drafting some support from outside market forces. Perhaps gold is also seeing a delayed lift from news that 8 foreign central banks increased their gold reserve holdings in the month of August, especially with Russia alone, increasing their gold holdings by over 12 tons. With the IMF noting that a number of central banks increased the rate of their purchases, one gets the sense that lower gold prices might have stimulated interest, but most central banks have a predetermined plan for purchases, or the buys are tied to economic and mechanical measures. Gold was probably left flat footed by news that gold derivative holdings were unchanged yesterday, as investor interest hasn't been stirred by the decline in gold prices over the last month. At times yesterday, gold seemed to garner some lift from favorable US data flows, which in turn would seem to suggest that the market wasn't definitively limited by news that might prompt the US Fed to taper next month. Gold might be set to garner some lift from strength in platinum prices, as that market is being lifted by ongoing fears against production due to labor problems.
The options expiration in October Gold is the main reason that prices have been subdued and near the 1300 area. We’ll know soon as the expiration is today and if gold is set to go higher, then it should develop later today or by tomorrow’s trade.
The Japanese Nikkei closed lower for the third straight session, perhaps because of a measure of caution coming from the US budget battle. It is also possible that Japanese stocks were pressured by yesterday's disappointing US Consumer confidence data. Chinese shares were also lower with lingering concerns over the Chinese property market. However, downside action was limited ahead of the Shanghai Free trade zone which will begin Sunday. Asian equity market declines appeared to stabilize during the early European trade, with most of those indices dancing around unchanged levels. A measure of support in Europe came from a read on German Consumer sentiment that slightly beat expectations and rose to a seven year high. Another supportive force is the latest chatter from ECB officials in favor of maintaining an accommodative monetary policy. While the early trade showed improvement, concerns over the US budget impasse leaves the trade vulnerable. Looking ahead to the US economic calendar, the market focuses on August Durable Goods, which are expected unchanged from a surprisingly negative reading in July. Also of interest will be August New Home Sales that are expected to have ratcheted higher.
Gold Chart
We have had many penetrations of 1322 but none of the closes are below. Recall that 1322 was the APRIL CRASH low in gold and that point is becoming more and more important as evidence of all the penetrations and yet the recoveries above in the closing price. That is exactly where we stand as we publish this morning’s report. Gold is certainly trying to make a low with the cycles. If price gives way below last weeks 1291 low, then it it possible that we could get a move lower to the 1260-1275 area. The August low is around 1271 – 1272 depending on what month we look at in futures. We still feel the best chance to make a move one way or another is today/tomorrow as options expiration takes place for October Futures today.
Going to the chart, the 1310-1322 area continues to be the point where gold is trying to make a turn. Support is the purple channel lines near 1272-1275 and then at the 1252-1257 area where the 2nd purple line resides. Resistance is the 1338-1343 area and then 1352. With options expiration we expect a move to begin in gold after 11am NY time or by Thursday morning. Cycles favor higher on the short term trend, but the medium term cycles are still trying to form a bottom and can’t rule out lower into the 1st week of October. At the moment, we favor the BULLS to gain the edge and try to rally gold beginning at any time and by tomorrow. The question is will they be successful? We feel they have the edge. Watch the 1333-1338 area and up to 1343. Getting above 1338 ( The Fib line on the chart) would seem to favor the bulls. Also, a move above the green 200 hour moving average would also favor the bulls.
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YOU SHOULD NOT TAKE ANY MATERIAL posted on this BLOG AS RECOMMENDATIONS
TO BUY OR SELL GOLD OR ANY OTHER INVESTMENT VEHICLE LISTED.
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